TNF Player Prop Bets – Chiefs vs. Texans, Week 1, 2020

| September 10, 2020 1:24 am PDT

The NFL officially returns on Thursday, with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans.

The two dudes that got paid – Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson – wage war for the third time over the past year, and it’ll be Watson’s Texans attempting to stage a sizable upset.

I pointed to the Over being one of the best bets in my safest week one NFL bets, but there is so much more going on in this game that we should be able to exploit.

With this TNF game not on the main daily fantasy football slate, your best bet to profit off of this game is to bet on the outcome or wager on something affiliated with it.

If you want the straight up approach, check out our week one Chiefs vs. Texans betting pick. To dive in for a little extra value, join me as I break down the best week 1 Thursday Night Football player props to bet on.

Travis Kelce to Have 80+ yards and Chiefs to Win (+122)

This is a beautiful “Performance Double” wager at BetOnline that I can’t ignore. Kelce is a red zone monster and is a threat to score any time he’s on the field.

He’s especially dangerous against Houston, as he torched this defense for three touchdowns the last time they met.

But scoring is hardly predictive. Kelce will probably get a touchdown, but that’s only coming at a -118 price. You can get more value to bet on his yardage, and 80+ receiving yards for a guy with his talent and role isn’t asking that much.

Kelce has always taken pleasure in abusing Houston, it seems. Seriously, take a look at his yardage total the last three times he’s battled this Texans defense.

  • 2019: 134
  • 2019: 58
  • 2017: 98

Two out of three ain’t bad. In a game where the Chiefs are heavily favored to win, and the game total suggests a bit of a shootout, I like Kelce’s chances to crack 80 receiving yards and get bettors a nice win.

Patrick Mahomes to Throw 4 Touchdowns (+384)

Mahomes tossed five touchdowns against Houston in the playoffs last year, and three during a regular-season meeting in 2019.

The guy can torch anyone, and he’s had zero issues with this Texans defense. By the way, Houston is about as overrated as defenses come, too, likely due to the presence of J.J. Watt.

Houston allowed the 6th most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in 2019, as well as the 8th most plays of 20+ yards. This defense isn’t at all built to slow down Mahomes, who is probably a lock to toss multiple scores in this game, and probably a heck of a lot more.

You can play it a bit safer and go with three (+127), or go nuts with five (+1179), but four touchdowns is the sweet spot. A $100 bet brings back $484.99 at Sportsbetting.ag, and considering Mahomes’ talent, matchup, and the weapons at his disposal, it doesn’t even feel like a tall order.

Darrel Williams to Rush for 31+ Yards (+170)

Everyone will understandably be fawning over rookie tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He figures to have the biggest role of all Chiefs running backs right out of the gates, after all.

However, Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 NFL season due to COVID-19, and Darrel Williams was officially announced as the direct backup to CEH.

Kansas City is more dangerous through the air, but they’ll still run it a bit and I don’t know if there is anything concrete to guarantee CEH is some elite feature back in his pro debut.

Williams should get some carries, and if he pops even one off, he could easily hit the mark here. This one doesn’t come without risk, but I have to think Williams will get more than a handful of touches, and 31 yards is not a difficult number to top.

Deshaun Watson to Rush for 31+ Yards (-114)

This is another rushing prop bet I am high on for Thursday Night Football, seeing as Watson is about as dynamic as they come, and I can see him getting flushed out of the pocket quite a bit in this matchup.

Watson has averaged over 32 yards on the ground per game for his career, and he topped this mark (37 and 42) both times he faced Kansas City in 2019.

The Chiefs don’t have an elite defense, but it sure is an aggressive one that can generate pressure. Watson may not always find his guys open in this one, so don’t be shocked if he takes off running a little more than usual.

This feels like a really safe wager to attack in week one, but you can honestly go a little higher, and I’d be willing to go as far as 51+ rushing yards at a cool +197.

You do need to pick your spots when it comes to NFL player props worth betting on, though, so I’d probably just take the win at -114 and move along.

Will Fuller to Catch 5+ Passes (-130)

This is another week one Thursday Night Football prop that feels like a can’t miss. Will Fuller is thrust into a massive role with DeAndre Hopkins traded out of town, while incoming receiver Brandin Cooks has been limited throughout the offseason.

With Houston likely trailing and this game total set fairly high, it stands to reason that the Texans will be taking it to the air quite a bit. If that logic holds up, Fuller’s stellar talent, clear role, and his chemistry with Deshan Watson should translate into a pretty big week one performance.

Fuller could admittedly do a lot of his damage with limited opportunities, but the larger than usual role has me loving the chances of him topping this week one milestone.

You can get bolder here, as Fuller did have games with 7 and 14 catches in 2019. Those types of numbers would bring back insane cash with bets valued at +227 for seven receptions, or a mind-boggling +699 at nine catches or more.

Deshaun Watson 2+ TDs and Will Fuller 1+ TD (+208)

If you’re with me on Fuller and Watson airing it out in this one, there’s pretty sound logic that they’ll both enjoy some kind of statistical success in this game.

Watson has shredded the Chiefs in recent memory, too, as he hung three total touchdowns on them during the regular season last year, and two more again in the playoffs.

Fuller didn’t score against KC in two meetings in 2019, but he didn’t have the role he’s walking into in week one. If Watson is going to hit this bet – and he’s a good bet to do so – the odds are decent one or more of his passing scores will fall into the hands of one Will Fuller.

Both of these guys benefiting from each other is a fine bet to make at a cool +208 price at the top NFL betting websites.

Summary

These just happen to be the six Thursday Night Football prop bets that stand out the most to me. There are hundreds more TNF prop bets to consider chasing down in the first NFL game of the year.

I’d suggest at least thinking about some of the ones I’ve gone over, and mix up whatever batch you decide on, going after some safer options, and taking on a little more risk with others.

Whether you go with my week one Thursday Night Football player props or bet in another fashion, just be sure you’re doing it safely and getting the best props money can buy.

To ensure that, head over to our sports betting websites page to use the best online sportsbooks that are out there.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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