TNF Player Prop Bets – Buccaneers vs. Bears (NFL Week 5, 2020)

| October 7, 2020 9:20 am PDT

Tom Brady pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week, erasing a 17-point deficit as he fired in five touchdowns to lead the Buccaneers to a clutch comeback win.

Just like that, Brady went from seemingly washed back to legend status. His Bucs are now 3-1, and will look to dispatch the Chicago Bears on a short week.

Chicago is also 3-1, but they may be the worst 3-1 team we’ve ever seen. The defense is solid and the offense has some nice pieces, but the quarterback play remains horrid.

You can bet on this game by gaining a little insight from our week 5 Buccaneers vs. Bears betting preview, or you can just wager on how individual players will perform.

My player props for Thursday Night Football worked out pretty well last week, with Melvin Gordon scoring a touchdown (-121), and Sam Darnold topping 221.5 passing yards (-110).

Let’s get some more wins with a look at my favorite Buccaneers vs. Bears TNF player props.

More Passing Yards – Tom Brady Over Nick Foles (-175)

Brady lit up a very talented Chargers defense in week four, putting up 369 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air. 

He’s on a short week and faces another strong defense in the Bears, but he’s a solid bet to win this matchup against Nick Foles.

Brady has been heating up lately, as he also put up 297 yards in his previous outing. Tampa Bay wants to run the ball a bit, but Brady has so many weapons, that it’s hard to envision him not having success.

Know your competition, too. Brady may not even need to be lights out to win this wager at a -175 price. Nick Foles aired it out 42 times last week, but averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and finished with 249 passing yards.

Foles could have to throw a lot in this one, but that could also lead to sacks and turnovers. Brady is ultimately easier to trust, has the better supporting cast, and comes in at a respectable price.

Allen Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions (-124)

I’ve seen this prop at a few NFL betting websites, and -124 is the best price for Allen Robinson to secure six or more catches. I like his chances, seeing as Nick Foles has targeted him relentlessly (17 times) over the last two weeks.

Robinson is by far Chicago’s best offensive weapon, and he’s got a solid matchup in front of him, with the Bears facing a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the 11th most passing yards on the year.

I don’t think Robinson explodes here, but I do think he’ll be heavily involved, per usual. He’s topped this mark in each of his last two games, and has hauled in fewer than five grabs just once. 

This is a pretty solid price when you look at his talent, role, and matchup.

Mike Evans to Score a Touchdown (EVEN)

Mike Evans is banged up and dealing with a nasty ankle sprain. He did return last week after exiting with the ailment, but he also ended up missing practice on Tuesday.

Be sure to check on his status before committing to any prop bets concerning him.

If he’s in, though, I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get into the endzone. Evans is a massive target and is basically matchup proof, while fellow top receiver Chris Godwin remains on the shelf with an injury of his own.

With nobody else really trustworthy in Tampa Bay’s passing game, targets could funnel his way, especially in the red-zone. Evans has also scored at least once in every game this year, so let’s just keep the good times going.

Nick Foles Over 0.5 Interceptions (-182)

The price isn’t out of this world, but Foles is a pretty reckless quarterback that can be prone to horrible throws at times. He will also likely be playing from behind and forced to throw a bit more than he or the Bears would like, and more volume creates opportunities for interceptions.

Foles has played in two games in 2020, and he’s tossed a pick in both outings. The Buccaneers generate a lot of pressure up front, too, and are a pretty advantageous group (10th in interceptions).

Betting on Foles to throw just one pick feels like a nice way to get action on this game, and the -182 price tag isn’t terrible.

David Montgomery Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Be careful with this wager, as there are some David Montgomery prop bets that have a lower rushing yardage total and worse pricing. I like it at 52.5 and -115, so seek it out and find it if you can.

Montgomery is a solid running back with a good role, but he’s not that explosive, and his Bears could be playing from behind in this one. The matchup is also brutal, as he faces a stellar front seven in the Bucs, who rank 2nd against the run this season.

Everything points to the Under here, while Montgomery hasn’t been able to top this low total in either of his last two outings.

Summary

That does it for this week’s look at the best Thursday Night Football player props. This could be a really ugly game, as it’s TNF, for one, but both teams are also pretty banged up.

Definitely make sure Mike Evans and anyone else in doubt is actually suiting up before you bet on them, and no matter what you do, at least take into consideration my analysis above.

On paper, the Bucs look like the favorite here, and they should be leading in this game. That works against David Montgomery, but should help us bet on Foles and Robinson. Despite Chicago likely trailing, the more efficient Brady should still have the superior passing yardage performance.

Hopefully, these NFL player props serve you well on TNF. Enjoy the game, and happy betting!

Note that I took these props from a number of the top betting sites, but I recommend BetOnline as the best overall for NFL player props.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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