Tips, Betting Picks, and Predictions for AFL Round 21 (August 5-7, 2022)

| August 4, 2022 12:09 am PDT

All of a sudden, we have just three rounds of the home-and-away season remaining. With the 2022 AFL Finals Series on the horizon, the race for a top-eight berth is heating up.

Round 21 gets underway on Friday, August 5, with second-place Melbourne and third-place Collingwood doing battle at the MCG. Accordingly, it’s time for me to publish my Round 21 AFL predictions, betting tips, and picks.

Keep reading to discover my ALF predictions and picks for Round 21. Before we go any further, though, let’s check out the latest AFL odds for the upcoming clashes.

AFL Odds for Round 21

  • Melbourne (1.40) vs. Collingwood (3.00)
  • Hawthorn (1.95) vs. Gold Coast (1.83)
  • GWS Giants (2.10) vs. Essendon (1.72)
  • Western Bulldogs (1.50) vs. Fremantle (2.62)
  • Geelong (1.14) vs. St Kilda (5.50)
  • Port Adelaide (1.66) vs. Richmond (2.20)
  • North Melbourne (8.50) vs. Sydney (1.07)
  • Brisbane (1.40) vs. Carlton (3.00)
  • West Coast (2.00) vs. Adelaide (1.80)

The Round 21 AFL odds are courtesy of Betway. As you can see, favors four sides – Gold Coast, Essendon, Sydney, and Adelaide – to win on the road this weekend.

Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Brisbane are all favored to win on home soil. Could a traveling outsider upset the AFL odds in Round 21? It’s time to find out.

I’ll get to my Round 21 AFL predictions, but if you’re ready to place your wagers now, feel free to visit the best sites for betting on the AFL.

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Collingwood to Beat Melbourne

Second-place Melbourne and third-place Collingwood are locked on 56 points. Both sides have already booked their place in the finals, but they will now be hoping to secure a top-four berth. Who will come out on top at the MCG?

The Demons have been wildly inconsistent of late, recording four wins and five losses across the past five rounds. Since the Magpies head into Round 21 on a ten-game winning streak, I can see them downing the Dees.

Gold Coast to Beat Hawthorn

Gold Coast still stands an outside chance of sneaking into the finals. With three games remaining, the Suns find themselves eleventh on the AFL ladder – eight points shy of the top eight and eight points clear of thirteenth-place Hawthorn.

Having lost 12 of their 19 outings this year, the Hawks will miss the finals once again. Given that Hawthorn has nothing left to play for, I’m backing the Suns to keep their top-eight dreams alive with a third victory in five games.

Essendon to Beat GWS Giants

Although fourteenth-place Essendon and sixteenth-place GWS are separated by just eight points, there is no denying that Essendon is a stronger outfit than GWS. You only have to look at the contrasting form of the two sides.

While the Bombers have won five of their last seven encounters, the Giants have lost six of their previous seven. With that in mind, you probably won’t be surprised to learn that I’m backing Essendon to take home the W on Saturday.

Western Bulldogs to Beat Fremantle

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Fremantle has dropped off in recent weeks. After winning ten of their opening 13 games, the Dockers have managed to win just two of their past six encounters – suffering three defeats in the process.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have won four of their last seven games – and seven of their previous 11. Luke Beveridge’s boys are now just four points shy of the top eight, so I expect them to put in a winning performance against Freo.

Geelong to Beat St Kilda

The Cats head into Round 21 on a ten-game winning streak, meaning they find themselves four points clear atop the ladder. In Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins, Geelong boasts two of the top three goalkickers in the comp. The minor premiership is in sight.

On the flip side, eighth-place St Kilda trails first-place Geelong by 16 points. Granted, the Saints are enjoying a solid season and remain in control of their destiny. But they look set to struggle against the high-flying Cats.

Richmond to Beat Port Adelaide

Just when it looked as though the Tigers were out of finals contention, they produced an eye-catching display to beat Richmond. Noah Cumberland (5.0) and Tom Lynch (4.1) starred last weekend, keeping their team’s top-eight dreams alive.

In addition to trailing Richmond by ten points, Port Adelaide sits 12 points outside the top eight. With their finals hopes all but quashed, the South Australians aren’t likely to put up much of a fight against the determined Tigers.

Sydney to Beat North Melbourne


What can I say about North Melbourne that hasn’t already been said? The Kangaroos sit rock bottom of the AFL ladder with a measly eight points to their name, having lost 17 of their 19 games this year. Oh, and they also have the worst offensive record in the comp.

At the opposite end of the standings, Sydney occupies fourth place. The Swans extended their winning streak to four games with a dominant 73-point victory over rivals GWS last time out, so they shouldn’t struggle to overcome lowly North.

Brisbane to Beat Carlton

Inconsistent Carlton has registered five wins and five losses across the past ten rounds. Despite the continued efforts of the league’s leading goalkicker, Carlie Curnow, the Blues are in real danger of slipping out of the top eight.

Seventh-place Carlton trails fifth-place Brisbane by four points. The Lions have upped their game of late, winning three of their previous five encounters. Boasting the best offensive record in the comp, the Queenslanders will be confident of dispatching the Blues.

West Coast to Beat Adelaide

Like North Melbourne, West Coast has suffered 17 defeats in 19 outings this season. That said, the Eagles have pushed their recent opponents close. They even kicked 104 points against Gold Coast last weekend, only to lose by three.

In my eyes, Sunday’s clash against Adelaide provides West Coast with an ideal opportunity to return to winning ways. The Crows have lost four of their previous five games, so the Eagles will fancy their chances of sealing the victory on home soil.

Top AFL Picks for Round 21

That’s it for my Round 21 AFL predictions, but I’m not finished just yet. I have scoured the best Aussie Rules betting sites to find the top AFL picks for Round 21.

Melbourne vs. Collingwood – Collingwood to Win3.00
Geelong vs. St Kilda – Geelong (-33.5)1.90
North Melbourne vs. Sydney – Sydney (-45.5)1.90
Port Adelaide vs. Richmond – Richmond to Win2.20

I really like the look of Collingwood’s odds to beat Melbourne. The Magpies have won each of their last ten games, while the Demons have won just five of their previous ten.

I’m also confident that Richmond will get the better of Port Adelaide. The Tigers need to beat the Power to keep their finals hopes alive, so I can see them producing a winning performance in South Australia.

Given the low prices for Geelong and Sydney, I recommend exploring the handicap markets to boost the odds. The Cats and the Swans should make light work of their respective opponents this weekend.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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