Thursday’s MLB Predictions and Betting Tips – April 29, 2021

| April 29, 2021 2:02 am PDT

While 12 teams hit the reset button, the other 18 are in action in what’s a fairly light slate. Four games are scheduled in the afternoon while Trevor Bauer headlines the nightly portion of Thursday night’s schedule.

As always, the plan is to reveal MLB predictions for all of the games. I’ll then showcase my top upset picks and the best bets of the day.

Let’s get started.

MLB Game Winner Predictions for April 29th

  • Yankees to beat the Orioles
  • Athletics to beat the Rays
  • Phillies to beat the Cardinals
  • Astros to beat the Mariners
  • Braves to beat the Cubs
  • Dodgers to beat the Brewers
  • Tigers to beat the White Sox
  • Rangers to beat the Red Sox
  • Diamondbacks to beat the Rockies

These straight-up picks give you an idea of where I’m leaning with my MLB picks for Thursday. Among the games I’m less convictive about, the Yankees haven’t shown me enough to want to lay -175 at a game in Camden Yards.

I’m not touching the game in Houston or Atlanta, and I’m not ready to trust Arizona as shaky as Luke Weaver has been.

As for the baseball games that I will be pulling the trigger on, that number sits at five.

Top MLB Upset Picks for April 29th

  • Athletics -103 (over the Rays)
  • Tigers +136 (over the White Sox)
  • Rangers +110 (over the Red Sox)

Despite having to lay a smidgen of juice at the best baseball betting sites, the A’s are still an underdog Thursday afternoon in Tampa Bay. At least that’s how this game was perceived when the MLB odds for April 28th first hit the sportsbooks. Things may look different as we continue inching toward the first pitch.

Speaking of that first pitch, Shane McClanahan is an exciting left-handed prospect. However, Thursday marks his first big league start. I’d be lying if I told you I know what to expect.

On the other side of the coin, Oakland is sending Chris Bassitt to the mound. Seeking his third consecutive quality start, the 6’5” right-hander is one of the more dependable starters in the American League.

Chris Bassitt’s Last Two Starts
Date Opponent Result Innings Earned Runs Strikeouts Walks Pitch Count
4/24 Orioles W, 7-2 6.0 2 8 1 101
4/18 Tigers W, 3-2 6.0 2 8 2 90

At first glance, I was ready to hammer a wager in on the Chi Sox tonight. And then the alarm bells went off. Fading Matthew Boyd at +136 would go against everything I believe in.

Yet to log five innings in any of his four starts, Dylan Cease is a working project. He’s walked at least three batters in each of his four appearances and has given up more hits than innings pitched.

Shall we check in on what the Tigers pitcher has been up to in 2021?

Try four straight starts tossing at least 6.2 innings—Boyd’s season ERA clocks in at 1.82 ERA through 34.2 innings up work.

To make matters worse for the South Siders, Luis Robert is out. And Adam Eaton’s splits portray a guy who struggles against lefties (.297 vs. RHP, .067 vs. LHP).

Another dog I’m targeting as one of my top MLB picks is Texas at home versus Boston. The Red Sox have played better than the Rangers thus far, but let’s put records aside and zero in on the pitching matchup.

Martin Perez hasn’t gotten out of the fourth inning in either of his past two starts. His ERA has ballooned to 5.71.

Meanwhile, Texas starter Kyle Gibson has been wheeling and dealing, shutting down a couple of the league’s top-tier lineups in the process.

Kyle Gibson’s Last Four Starts
Date Opponent Result Innings Earned Runs Strikeouts Walks Pitch Count
4/24 White Sox L, 2-1 6.0 1 5 2 99
4/18 Orioles W, 1-0 8.0 0 6 0 97
4/13 Rays W, 8-3 7.0 1 3 2 86
4/7 Blue Jays W, 2-1 6.0 0 8 1 82

Four consecutive gems from a guy who is yet to surrender a long ball. I’ll be latching onto the Rangers in the plus-money territory. Will you?

Best MLB Bets for Thursday, April 29th 

  • Phillies over the Cardinals (-130)
  • Dodgers over the Brewers (-152)

Lots of factors are pulling more toward backing the Phillies on Thursday. Yadier Molina is the latest Redbird to the Injured List – Philly is healthy as can be.

Joe Girardi’s bunch hits for a higher average. Philadelphia has the higher on-base %, a higher slugging %, plus they’re 7-4 as a favorite. And yet, all of this pales in comparison to the #1 reason my money is on the Phillies.

After facing the Cardinals 11 days ago, it’s safe to say that Aaron Nola has a pretty good recipe for how to attack this lineup.

Nola struck out 10 and walked none en route to hurling a CGSO against St. Louis.

We saw Trevor Bauer go back-and-forth with the Padres batters in his last outing. Look for the Dodgers ace to be all business tonight in Milwaukee. Despite giving up a couple of jack to Fernando Tatis Jr., “BauerOutage” K’d nine and registered zero walks. Did I mention that the Brewers .217 batting average is the second-lowest in the NL?

That doesn’t bode well, considering Bauer’s nasty 0.66 WHIP. Through his first five starts in a Dodgers uniform, opposing batters are slashing a minuscule .135/.193/.297.

That’s all for today. Stay tuned for more MLB predictions tomorrow.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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