Three Sleepers for UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic (August 29th, 2020)

| August 26, 2020 4:10 am PDT

I’ve got three UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic sleepers for you to look at ahead of the action this Saturday, August 29.

Among my picks are an ex-welterweight champion, a guy that nailed his opponent in less than one round in his promotional debut, and a fighter that recently derailed a UFC hype train. 

When you put it like that, what’s not to love? 

I’ve taken the odds for my chosen bets below from our best sites for UFC betting. Feel free to check them out by following that link, or, have a read of what I have in store for you and make your decision.

Let’s start with that former UFC champ…

Lawler to Beat Magny +195

Robbie Lawler’s odds to beat Neil Magny in the co-main event are very tempting.

Although “Ruthless” is some distance from his electrifying pomp, he is not finished yet. Approaching his 20th year as a professional mixed martial artist, Lawler has a couple of wins still left in the tank, and I think he has a better chance against Magny than most seem to be giving him.

The oddsmakers have made Lawler the underdog for this one, in part, due to the 38-year-old losing three on the bounce. But it’s not as if he lost to bums. 

Colby Covington is the best welterweight on the planet not named Kamaru Usman. Rafael dos Anjos was in the picture for a shot at Lawler’s old welterweight crown when he beat him. And Ben Askren – still unbeaten at the time of their fightback in March 2019 – was fortunate to benefit from an early stoppage win.

They say the last thing that a hard-hitting fighter loses is their power. And in my opinion, Lawler only needs the right frame to post a brutal picture on Magny’s grill. 

Magny is an absolute workhorse, and your typical MMA “jack of all trades.” He has a great engine and is always busy. But if Lawler can really go for it here – and let’s be honest, he needs to show something – I think he might stop “The Haitian Sensation.”

You can read more about my thoughts on this fight in my betting guide for Lawler vs. Magny

Aguilera to Beat Brady +300

Christian Aguilera is a fighter that might be keeping proofreaders in jobs, but there is nothing funny about his power.

Anthony Ivy learned this the hard way in June when he was pitted with “The Beast” in their respective UFC debuts. That night, Aguilera was +300 to win by KO/TKO, and I picked him as one of my value bets for the evening. 

It took one second less than a minute for Aguilera to knock Ivy out, and anyone who had my money on him to do so would have been happy campers.

This time around, he is +300 to win against the unbeaten Sean Brady. Great odds, considering his explosive power make him one of the most dangerous sleepers on the entire card.

I’m a big fan of Brady and think he can do some serious business in the UFC’s welterweight division. But all it takes is one mistake and Aguilera could set him back. 

Aguilera is the top 170-pounder in California and is a couple of wins away from being taken seriously.  With ten first-round KOs from 13 wins, well, you get the picture.

Ivy had never lost a fight by stoppage until he ran into Aguilera. And while Brady should be a little harder to tag, that danger will be present as long as “The Beast” is on his feet.

Caceres to Beat Chikadze +190

Who saw Alex Caceres derailing the Chase Hooper hype train? Like most, I didn’t. In fact, I thought Hooper would have passed that test with aplomb. 

But Caceres, the underdog on the night, dragged the youngster to the cards in one of the most notable upsets of the year so far. It’s not like Hooper was a lock to beat Caceres, but so many, including myself, didn’t see it.

Against Chikadze, I think Caceres has another chance of upsetting the applecart. From what we have seen of “Bruce Leeroy,” he likes to come into fights with no pressure. And even though he has that win over Hooper, fans continue to sleep on him.

Yes, I would pick Chikadze in this fight if there was a gun to my head. But Caceres’ odds (+190) are worth some pocket fluff, at very least. 

Caceres has a few tools in his arsenal to trouble the Georgian. His takedown accuracy is 76%, which is pretty good. His TD defense clocks in at a less impressive 59%, but both are better than Chikadze’s.

More than this, he’s tough and durable. He can strike, too. Alright, he’s not the most prolific finisher, but he has more than enough about him to burst his opponent’s balloon on the night.

Caceres to win is a solid bet. Don’t put the family heirlooms down on this one, but a couple of notes could earn you nice little profit.

Closing Words

There’s nothing better than landing big odds on a dog that comes through for you on the night. But just remember that big odds exist for a reason. 

Still, I’m happy with the three bets above. I think there is some money to be made on this card, and hopefully, these are the guys to bring smiles to our faces when all is said and done at the APEX this Saturday.

Enjoy the fights! 

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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