Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night, November 7, 2020

| November 4, 2020 6:21 am PDT

It’s a case of fourth time lucky for the headline fight at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira.

Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira were scheduled to fight on three previous occasions, only for the scrap to fall apart on every occasion. Barring anything extremely unlucky, this all-Brazilian light-heavyweight clash will top the bill at the UFC APEX this Saturday, November 7.

Santos hasn’t fought since July 2019 when he challenged then lightweight champion Jon Jones for the 205-pound title. Although Santos came up short on the judges’ scorecards, he became the first man to ever deny Jones a stoppage or unanimous decision victory. Some felt he won the fight. Or at least, he would have, had he not suffered an early knee injury.

Teixeira is on a four-fight streak, with his last win coming by way of a brutal stoppage over Anthony Smith. The 41-year-old has been in his best form since joining the promotion back in 2012.

I’m going to look at the best odds and bets for Santos vs. Teixeira, before finishing off with an explanation for who I think wins the fight. Would you like to know who I think wins the fight?

Keep reading for my prediction for Santos vs. Teixeira.

Santos vs. Teixeira – Who Wins?

  • Thiago Santos by KO/TKO

This is an excellent matchup between two guys with a lot in common.

Both Santos and Texeira are 4-1 from their last fights. They both stand at 6’2″ with 76″ reaches. They are both Brazilian, both excellent fighters, and perhaps more importantly, are both capable of winning this fight.

I am predicting a stoppage win for Santos and I will explain my thinking a little further down this page. But first, let’s see the odds and bets for this fight.

Santos vs. Teixeira Odds

Thiago Santos to Win -240
Glover Teixeira +205

Santos’ odds to beat Teixeira are -240, which is pretty much what I expected.

On account of his performance over Jones alone, “Marreta” — which translates to “The Sledgehammer for us non-Portuguese speakers — has to be considered the favorite for this fight. 

But to say I am not entirely confident about these odds would be in line with I feel right now. The reason being that Santos has not fought in 18 months and there will be a little rust to shake off.

Teixeira is good value for an upset here at +205. He will take the fight to his compatriot with all the force of a man who knows that he is arguably one big win away from his second and last shot at the title.

The Connecticut-based fighter’s chances will diminish as the fight goes on. If he can storm into Santos and find a way to stop him, either on the feet or by submission, would you be surprised?

With that in mind, let’s move on to the best bets for this fight.

Santos vs. Teixeira Best Bets

  • Santos to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-125)
  • Santos to Win in Round 3 by KO/TKO/DQ (+1000)
  • Teixeira to Win +205

Santos to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-125) is the first bet I recommend for this fight.

Logically, it stands to reason that Santos’ best chance of beating Teixeira is by stoppage. Aside from being the younger man, he also boasts a formidable record of 15 KO/TKOs from 21 wins. 

I can’t see this fight going the distance. Nor do I see Santos beating a grappler as solid as Teixeira on the floor.

It does not matter whether you are an MMA betting whizz, or still learning how to bet on UFC fights, this is a good bet. 

If you’re looking to get bigger odds, Santos to Win in Round 3 by KO/TKO/DQ (+1000) is a good bet.

Teixeira will start the first round off well, but I can see Santos growing into the fight from the second round. By Round 3, all of the work put in by Santos should begin to pay off. From here, he should get the decision.

As I mentioned earlier, Teixeira to Win (+205) is worth considering.

Although I see Santos getting the finish in this fight, I think the first round will go his way. If he can capitalize on an early start, who’s to say that he is not in with a chance of winning?

Perhaps Glover has a puncher’s chance. Maybe he should have recruited the awesome Mike Tyson to teach him a couple of things. Oh, well, he can’t. That’s because the Tyson vs. Roy Jones Junior fight is keeping “Iron Mike” busy.

He is definitely in with a shout. But here’s why I expect Santos to come out on top.

Why Santos Beats Teixeira

Thiago Santos was a matter of inches away from becoming the first fighter to beat all-time great Jon Jones.

And that’s gotta rankle. But what Santos must remember ahead of this fight is that he was nothing yet, and should look to Dominick Reyes’ performance against Jan Blachowicz for inspiration on how NOT to approach a title fight.

Reyes, like Santos, had a very strong argument for winning his fight with Jones. But it all seemed to go to his head. And by the time he got into the cage with Blachowicz, it seemed that he felt it was an easy win. But that milk soon turned sour and he was stopped in the second round.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think Santos will be taking his compatriot lightly. But what I am expecting is that he will head into this fight full-charged and ready to rock. He is quicker than Teixeira and the speed of his shots, as well as his footwork, will be integral to keeping the wolf on the right side of the door.

If Teixeira can impose himself at the range, we could a surprise KO. But I think it’s more likely that any success he does have happens on the floor.

My final prediction is Thiago Santos via third-round TKO.

More UFC Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira goes down this Saturday in Las Vegas. But the headline fight is not the only one that will catch the attention.

You can find my predictions for all fights on the night by visiting our picks section. You will also find betting content for other fights and upcoming events spread across there as well as our blog.

Here’s a little taste of some of our best-read content on upcoming fights. Take a read, and I’ll see you soon!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam



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