Sleeper Picks for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship – Uncovering Value at TPC Sawgrass

| March 8, 2021 12:57 pm PDT

All it takes is a quick glance at THE PLAYERS Championship odds to know there’s some serious value on the table. Guys who are typically among the betting favorites at PGA Tour events have been pushed down below +4000. Others who would be on the radar during most weeks have faded to the back burner at TPC Sawgrass.

The result of these revisions is a handful of intriguing sleeper picks for THE PLAYERS Championship in 2021.

After a bit more scoping, I’ve narrowed that list down to four names.

Paul Casey +5500

Paul Casey never made worse than a bogey on his way to a top-10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Avoiding big numbers is crucial to success at the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, and so is driving your golf ball in play.

Last year’s PGA Tour leader in Total Driving clocks in 7th in that statistic in the current season, and here’s a closer glimpse alluding to Paul’s current form.

Paul Casey By the Numbers – Last Five Starts Worldwide
Date Tournament Finish
3/7/21 Arnold Palmer invitational T10
2/14/21 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am T5
2/7/21 Saudi International T12
1/31/21 Omega Dubai Desert Classic 1
1/24/21 The American Express T8

He might not resemble Denzel Washington, but Casey’s definitely a “Man on Fire.”

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000

So much for there being a learning curve for Christiaan Bezuidenhout at this particular venue. The 26-year-old South African shot a bogey-free 65 and was in 2nd place after the opening round of the 2020 PLAYERS – the first time he ever stepped foot on the Stadium Course in competition.

The three-time winner on the European Tour flashed his brilliant short game last week at Bay Hill en route to his first career top-10 on the PGA Tour. Given the strides this man has taken, he’s got a lot more where that came from.

Abraham Ancer +8000

Lurking at +6000 at some of the top golf betting sites, did you really think I’d skip out on touting Ancer’s +8000 odds at XBet? 12th in his only appearance at Sawgrass (2019), Abraham’s game is tailor-made for success at the diabolical Pete Dye design.

He hits lots of fairways…actually, scratch that. Let me be more specific. Ancer leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy.

He’s also a tremendous iron player and a terrific putter from short range, and he’s playing better than you probably think. 18th or better in five of eight starts dating back to the November Masters.

All in all, Ancer represents exactly what I’m looking for when scrounging for PLAYERS Championship sleepers.

Max Homa +10000

Max Homa arrived at The Genesis Invitational tagged with +6000 odds. 48 of the top-50 players in the world were there, and Max wound up lifting the trophy.

Once again, 48 of the top-50 players in the world are in Ponte Vedra Beach, and yet Homa strolls in as a +10000 longshot. What am I missing?

Yeah, Max is a California kid who grew up idolizing Riviera, but this dude’s game can travel anywhere at any time. Homa top-10’d last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – his third top-10 in his last four starts.

More PLAYERS Championship Betting Picks in 2021

You’ll need to be active at multiple sportsbooks to latch onto these PLAYERS Championship sleeper picks at the prices you see. For example, several bookies didn’t even include Christiaan Bezuidenhout when they installed odds for THE PLAYERS Championship. I can assure you Max Homa isn’t available at +10000 in all spots.

If throwing money down on a few dark horses isn’t enough to satisfy your appetite, there are some more dependable paths toward profitability.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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