Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners – College Basketball, February 17, 2021

By Dean McHugh in College Basketball
| February 17, 2021 10:13 am PDT

This is a massive game in the Big 12 Conference that could determine who finishes second behind the runaway leaders Baylor. Both teams come into this game with identical 13-5 records, so there is nothing between them this season. This game was initially scheduled for Tuesday night, but it was postponed by a day due to the adverse weather conditions.

If you look back over the previous six games between them, nothing separates them either as they have both won three games each. They played each other just over two weeks ago, and something did separate them that night…a single point!

The Sooners appeared to be cruising to a comfortable lead as they led by nine at halftime. However, the Longhorns had other ideas and fought back gallantly, but they eventually lost 79-80.

Here are the game odds and my betting analysis.

Longhorns vs. Sooners Odds

Longhorns (+1.5) -110
Sooners (-1.5) -110
Longhorns To Win -105
Sooners To Win -120
Over 141 Points -110
Under 141 Points -110

As expected, the bookmakers are giving nothing away here as the spread is as close as you can get, and the points total is equal to their combined points total over the previous ten head-to-head meetings. Therefore, it’s going to take some work to come up with a winning betting selection here.

The Sooners have an excellent record as the betting favorites, having only lost one of the last ten games that they entered as such.

Longhorns Analysis

After losing three in a row, the Longhorns have bounced back to win their last two games. After the narrow loss to tonight’s opponents, it seemed to knock the confidence out of them as they put up little fight against Baylor, lost in overtime to the Sooner’s close rivals Oklahoma State and then only narrowly beat second from bottom Kansas State. However, regular service resumed last time out as they dismantled TCU by 15 points.

On the road, they have a near-perfect record of 6-1, with their only blemish coming by way of that overtime defeat to Oklahoma State.

Here are the latest betting trends for Texas:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have only won one of their previous seven matches.
Total Nine of their last 11 games have gone over the betting total.
ATS Texas is 5-1 in their last six games on the road against Oklahoma.
SU The Longhorns have won six of their previous eight games in February.

Texas has a good offense that is excellent at rebounding the ball. They like to shoot from deep at every opportunity that they can get, but they certainly aren’t the best in the Conference from this sort of range, but then they’re not the worst either.

Because they like to try and get their shots off early, they don’t tend to make many assists per game.

Their defense is of a similar standard as they work hard to close down space, especially around the key area. They could do better at trying to steal the ball, though, as they are only averaging six per game, which is the third-lowest in the Conference. It’s not for want of trying, though, as they are a very physical team that unfortunately often oversteps the mark.

Andrew Jones leads the scoring stats for his team this season, and here he is showing what he does best.

Greg Brown has been the anchor in defense for the Longhorns, and between him and Jones, they have a deadly duo that would be a match for any other, even Batman and Robin! Here is all you need to know about Greg Brown.

The Longhorns have no reported absentees for this match.

Sooners Analysis

The Sooners are in fine form, having won seven of their previous eight games. However, they have had a couple of challenging games over the past couple of weeks, having lost to Texas Tech and winning against West Virginia in overtime last time out. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this has taken.

Much like the Longhorns away record, Oklahoma haven only lost one of their home fixtures from 11 played. They have won their previous six home games, and the last team to defeat them was also Texas Tech.

Here are the latest betting trends for Oklahoma:

Bet Type Trend
ATS They have won eight of their previous nine matches.
Total Ten of their last 15 games have gone over the betting total.
Total The total has gone under in nine of their last 12 games played on a Wednesday, which is a bummer for overs fans as this game was initially supposed to be played on a Tuesday.
Total Five of the previous seven games that the Sooners has entered as the favorites have gone under the points total.

The Sooners have a great attack that relies on its speed to get the ball up the other end of the court as quickly as possible before their opponents are fully set. Because of the pace of the game, you would have to say that they aren’t the most accurate shooters.

However, it doesn’t come at the cost of giving up possession as they tend to drive the ball to the basket more often than not, which means that they don’t make many turnovers. They have recorded a turnover on only 15% of their ball possession this season, which is the country’s 14th best rate.

Umoja Gibson has been the most accurate shooter for the Sooners this season, and this precise shooting won him the NCAA player of the week award last month.

This tactic seems to work for them, though, as they average 76 points per game, the third-highest average in the Conference. This helps to give them a point per game difference of 8.1, which is good in anyone’s books.

Their defense is decent, and they tend to sit very deep, guarding the key and the basket. However, this does invite their opponents to shoot from deep, which is a dangerous game to play. But because they sit so deep, it does mean that they have a better opportunity to rebound the ball, something they have done defensively more than any other team in the Conference.

This style of defense takes a lot of discipline, which is something the Sooners have in abundance.

They also make many steals each night as they have the second-highest average per game in the Conference this season.

They have defended better at home this season, conceding on averaging six fewer points per game.

Austin Reaves has been one of the players of the season so far, and he showed what an asset he is to his team when he made the winning shot late in the game against West Virginia last time out.

The Sooners also have a clean bill of health for this game.

Longhorns vs. Sooners Betting Pick

Pick
  • Sooners (-1.5)
    -110

I believe the Sooners will stamp their authority on this game and claim the victory. They got complacent in their last meeting, and I don’t see that happening again. They could see a lot of the ball as they don’t tend to give it up, and the Longhorns don’t manage to win it back often. This could lead to Texas getting frustrated and losing their already fragile discipline.

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