Prediction and Pick for Texas vs. Arkansas – College Football (September 11, 2021)

By Dan Vasta in College Football
| September 10, 2021 12:11 pm PDT

The Razorbacks and Longhorns have been craving success.

Arkansas has been getting buried towards the bottom of the SEC West thanks to Alabama, Texas A&M, and often LSU. Many have already counted them out this season due to a tough schedule.

Texas has a challenging road ahead as well before TCU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State arrive on the schedule. Both Texas and Arkansas have talented skill players and look improved on defense.

This game can springboard the entire season in favor of either team. Arkansas hosting Texas is one of the underrated games of the week.

Let’s discuss and analyze all the keys to victory for these two teams. It is now time to look at the latest odds for the Saturday clash between Texas and Arkansas.

Texas vs. Arkansas Odds

Texas (-7)-113
Arkansas (+7)-107
Texas to Win-260
Arkansas to Win+220
Over 56-115
Under 56-105

Texas looked good last week, and the Longhorns will enter this road tilt as touchdown favorites, per BetOnline.

These two squads have split their past four meetings, and only one has been within single digits. Arkansas has covered in the past two regular-season games.

The Razorbacks have played well at home as underdogs by about a touchdown (six to eight points). Arkansas has covered in five of the past six matchups, albeit they are only 2-4 straight up.

The Longhorns are 2-3 against the spread when they are between a six to eight-point road favorite. Texas is 3-2 outright in those games, but the Razorbacks should be ready for this thrilling non-conference matchup.

It is time to dissect how Texas and Arkansas can each pull this Saturday night victory off.

Why Texas Wins

Two linebackers got tossed for targeting in their season-opening win over Rice. The best of the bunch will miss the first half due to an ejection in the second half.

Bumper Pool may have one of the top names in the game, but he is a stud linebacker that can roam the sidelines with the best players in the SEC. The Razorbacks may not get the credit they deserve due to a few awful seasons, but this surely will be fun to watch.

Texas started quarterback Hudson Card last week in his debut against Louisiana. He ended up with over 200 yards passing with a pair of touchdown passes. The passing game wasn’t overly explosive, but the rushing attack can take over.

Bijan Robinson was used in the passing game nearly as much as he was in the rushing department. Just look at what he did in week one.

  • 20 rushes
  • 103 rushing yards
  • 2 TDs
  • 5.2 YPC
  • 4 catches
  • 73 yards 

One of the premier runners in the country, Robinson is a home-run threat after any touch he gets.

Hudson Card was able to take care of the ball since the offense was always ahead of schedule. That will be pivotal because the first road experience for a young Texas team won’t be a joy ride. The game should come down to the wire, and the youngsters mustn’t lose their confidence.

If their defense can limit the big plays of the Arkansas offense, the Longhorns will come out with a huge road victory.

Why Arkansas Wins

The Razorbacks are going to win this thriller due to being opportunistic on defense. One of the best-rising youngsters in the country that looks like a future All-American is Jalen Catalon.

Catalan had not one, but two picks in the season-opening three-touchdown victory over Rice. The Owls were able to hang in there with a sputtering offense, but the Razorback defense dominated.

Here’s what they held Rice to last week

  • 39 carries
  • 81 rushing yards

Oof.

That will be vital when trying to tackle Bijan Robinson in space. The Texas back was a star against Louisiana, but the Razorbacks have enough talent on offense to play keep away.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson is a physical quarterback that can run by and through opposing defenders. Treylon Burks is the star player that can torch the Texas secondary. The passing options for Louisiana aren’t nearly as explosive as the ones on the Razorbacks.

If Arkansas can sustain a few early drives, the Texas offense will be inconsistent for this road environment. The Razorbacks are a dangerous young team that has plenty of playmakers. They will need to start better than they did last week against Rice. If so, they will be ready for the upset.

Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction

The Longhorns are getting love due to their explosive offense. I question their quarterback play heading into this non-conference tilt.

Arkansas has a massive offensive line that should move the chains and get them rolling early in the first half. Playing keep away and making the Texas offense sit on the bench for an extended period should be the game plan.

The Razorbacks at home will turn the Longhorns over.

They will capitalize on the few mistakes they make and turn them into six points. Winning might be considered an upset for some folks, but Arkansas is just as talented at most positions.

Texas vs. Arkansas Pick

The Razorbacks have one of the more challenging schedules in the country, but this is a young team destined for success.

Sam Pittman went 7-3 against the spread last year and was 3-2 at home. Arkansas miraculously covered against Rice by cashing in on turnovers in the second half.

That could be the storyline to watch this weekend. The Razorbacks are going to ride the momentum in Fayetteville and keep this one within a score.

Take the Razorbacks with the points and enjoy this toss-up.

Pick
  • Arkansas (+7)
    -107

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