Texans vs. Bills Player Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

| September 30, 2021 2:30 pm PDT

Bouncing between 16 and 17 points, Sunday’s line in Buffalo is as large of a spread as we’ve seen thus far in the 2021 campaign. Those unsure who to side with, we feel your pain.

That’s why rather than attack the spread, we decided to target Texans vs. Bills player props.

There are a bunch related to how skill-position players will perform; all we have to do is pick the over or the under. After browsing the selection, here are the props I was most excited about.

Mark Ingram Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Mark Ingram is fighting all sorts of uphill battles Sunday at Highmark Stadium. For starters, Buffalo’s run defense is suffocating and among the best in the entire league. They’re allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and are holding opponents to 74.7 rushing yards per game.

Secondly, Houston is a 16-point dog and won’t have the liberty to be rushing the football. With this game expected to be out of hand well before halftime, a pass-heavy approach is all David Culley can look forward to.

And thirdly, Mark Ingram is part of a running back timeshare unlike any other in football. Four running backs are consistently rotated in, meaning he has to fight off three others for carries. Ingram rushed six times for 21 yards last time out; I expect a similar result in week 4.

Davis Mills Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Talk about being thrown into the fire. Davis Mills was inserted against Cleveland and started versus Carolina. It just so happens that the Panthers and Browns rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in sacks, respectively, and are two of the fiercest pass rushes in football.

Things won’t be much easier against a lively front seven in Buffalo, but another full week of practice and preparation as the team’s starter can only serve as a benefit.

Considering how ineffective the Texans rushing game is likely to be (see above prop), Mills should run up 30+ attempts and have plenty of opportunities in garbage time.

When Houston is inevitably down big late in the game, they’ll be facing a relaxed defense that’s dropped back in coverage. This will afford the Texans to rack up cheap and meaningless yards to help push him over this total. 

Stefon Diggs Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Allow me to introduce one of the most attractive Texans vs. Bills props on the board. If you also think 82.5 receiving yards seems low for Diggs in this spot, know that last year’s league leader in this category is yet to topple 69 yards in a game this season.

Stefon has caught 19 balls on 31 targets through the first three games. He’s still undoubtedly the number-one option for Josh Allen in the passing game. There’s no reason to panic.

Going back to week 3, Cole Beasley went off for 11 catches, and Manny Sanders caught a couple of touchdowns. I couldn’t imagine more of a green-light situation for Stefon Diggs than what he’s facing in week 4.

Houston struggles to shut down opposing number-one threats, just go back to last week and check out DJ Moore’s numbers (8-126 on 12 targets). Frankly, I wouldn’t put it past Diggs to surpass 82 receiving before halftime arrives.

Josh Allen Under 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Josh Allen averaged 6.4 rushing attempts per game in 2020 and has 18 rushes in 3 games so far this year. On the surface, it makes sense that the best NFL sportsbooks would install this line at 6.5.

However, here’s what I uncovered after digging beneath the surface.

During the four games that the Bills won by more than 10 points last season, Allen never carried the ball more than six times.

During the four games the Bills lost, Allen registered at least seven carries three times.

In other words, Josh Allen doesn’t need to run wild in games the Bills win comfortably. If you expect Buffalo to throttle Houston in week 4, a good way to parlay your prediction is to book the under in this prop.

My Top Texans vs. Bills Player Prop Bet for Week 4

Pick
  • Devin Singletary Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts
    +100

If you plan on targeting Texans vs. Bills player prop bets, this is “the one.”

I’m well aware that Zack Moss had an elevated role in week 3 and ended up out-carrying Devin Singletary 13-11. I’m also fully in tune that Singletary has carried the ball at least 11 times in every game this season. Quite effectively, might I add (5.1 yards/carry).

Devin Singletary in 2021 – By the Numbers
Date Opponent Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards
9/12/21 vs. Pittsburgh 11 72
9/19/21 @ Miami 13 82
9/26/21 vs. Washington 11 26

Now, playing at home as a colossal favorite, I’m supposed to think Brian Daboll is going to ease back on running the football?

That wouldn’t add up.

Cleveland rushed 34 times against Houston in week 2; Carolina ran the ball 33 times against Houston in week 3. Bank on Singletary getting more than 11 carries in week 4.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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