Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros – 2020 ALCS Game 4

The Tampa Bay Rays are just one game away from advancing to the World Series after defeating the Houston Astros, 5-2. That came courtesy of a five-run sixth inning that gave Tampa Bay a commanding lead, and the bullpen did the rest, tossing four shutout innings to earn the victory.

The Rays lineup produced when they needed, going 3-6 with runners in scoring position. Joey Wendle and Hunter Renfroe each drove in a pair of runs during the decisive frame.

Oddsmakers must think this series is over, putting the moneyline at -145 for this game. The never to take a closer look at is the rays giving up 1.5 runs at +115.

The total decreases from 8.5 in Game 3 to 8.0 for Game 3. With the teams combining for seven runs in only one of these contests and never reaching eight runs through the first three games, it may pay to put some money down on the under 8.0.

It might be time to start shoveling dirt on the Houston Astros, as they simply are no match for Tampa Bay in the series. Houston continues to struggle with runners in scoring position, going 1-8 in Game 3, while stranding 10 runners.

The thing for Houston to keep in mind is that they cannot win four games on Wednesday. They have to win Game 4 to stay alive, and that task falls on right-hander Zack Greinke to give them one more day of baseball. Greinke was 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA during the regular season and is 0-0 with a 5.19 ERA in the post-season. He was solid in his first appearance, allowing a run in four innings to Minnesota, but allowed four runs in 4.2 innings to Oakland in his last outing.

Tampa Bay looks to close this series out behind right-hander Tyler Glasnow. The right-hander was 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA during the regular season and is 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA in the playoffs. Glasnow’s stuff has been awesome in the post-season, as he has struck out 20 in 13.1 innings, including 10 in five innings against the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS.

One stat to watch for in this game will be the 1.22 ground out-fly out ratio for the Tampa Bay right-hander. That likely means that Houston is not going to get the big homerun to turn this series.

The pitching matchup gives Tampa Bay a clear edge, but Greinke is an experienced veteran. He has made important playoff starts before, so he is not going to be rattled in any way.

Many analysts are already thinking that Houston enters the game with a lot of pressure. One loss and they are out, and that would seem to hurt their chances in this contest. A tight lineup often means every batter is wanting to be the hero, hurting their performance at the plate. I do not see that happening here.

The Astros are playing with house money. They already know that they are expected to lose, so they can come out loose and enjoy. A loose lineup for the Astros may be just what this team needs to get back to playing the kind of baseball we saw through the first two playoff series. It is because of this that I see them at least winning one game in the series. Take the Houston Astros, 5-2. That means the under is the pick for the fourth straight game.