Tampa Bay Downs Picks – Saturday, February 6, 2021

Tampa Bay Downs brings us four stakes races for Saturday, three of them graded stakes matches, including the Sam F. Davis Stakes–one of the prep races along the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby.

We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s not waste any more time — read on for my Tampa Bay Downs picks and betting tips for all four stakes races on Saturday, February 6, 2021.

This is the Tampa Bay Stakes, a Grade III stakes race for four-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $175,000.

I’m buying a win ticket for the 3/1 morning line favorite in this race — Fancy Liquor, ridden by Hector R. Diaz, Jr. This four-year-old colt finished in the money seven of his eight career starts, winning three — the latest of which was the Grade II American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs last September.

And at 15/1, I have to like the Irish import, Talk or Listen, with Daniel Centeno aboard, for a value show ticket. This five-year-old gelding moneyed ten of his 14 career starts, winning four.

This is a Suncoast Stakes, an ungraded stakes race for three-year-old fillies running a distance of one mile and 40 yards for a purse of $150,000.

I’m sticking with the 5/2 morning line favorite here — Gulf Coast, with Julien Leparoux in the irons. This filly moneyed all three of her career starts, winning two of them. Besides breaking her maiden on her first start, she placed in the Sandpiper Stakes (Black Type) at Tampa Bay Downs in December and won the Cash Run Stakes (Black Type) at Gulfstream Park last month.

At 12/1, Roll Up Mo Money, ridden by Samy Camacho, looks like a good value show wager. This filly moneyed two of her three career starts, both of those wins. Her only non-money finish was a fifth place in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes (Grade I) at Del Mar last September.

This is the Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, a Grade III stakes race for fillies and mares four years old and upward running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $175,000.

If the 6/1 also-eligible/MTO entry Eres Tu, ridden by Samy Camacho, makes it into this race, bet her to win. This five-year-old mare moneyed six of her nine career starts, winning four, the latest of which was the Grade III Allaire DuPont Stakes at Laurel Park in December.

Otherwise, buy a win ticket for the 5/2 morning line favorite — Counterparty Risk, with John R. Velazquez aboard. This four-year-old filly finished two of her three career starts in the money, winning one.

At 12/1, I like Margaret’s Joy, with Ronald Dale Allen, Jr. in the irons, for a value show bet. This five-year-old mare moneyed three of her six career starts, winning one.

This is the Sam F. Davis Stakes, a Grade III stakes race for three-year-olds running a distance of 1-1/16 miles for a purse of $250,000. The Sam F. Davis Stakes is a prep race for the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby in which the top four finishers are awarded points (10-4-2-1) toward qualification for a starting position in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

After quite a bit of back and forth, I’ve landed on a 3/1 morning line favorite — Smiley Sobotka, ridden by Daniel Centeno — as my choice to win this very tight stakes race. This colt moneyed all three of his career starts, winning two. His most recent start was in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November, where he finished second.

At 30/1 morning line odds, I like Last Investment, with Ademar Santos aboard, for a show ticket. This colt moneyed three of his four career starts. Even in a race as tight as this, he’s a distinct possibility.

Sure, Tampa Bay Downs had plenty to offer, but remember there are lots more stakes races to consider at the other two tracks I reviewed for Saturday: