Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Super Bowl 55 Betting Preview

By Dean McHugh in NFL
| February 4, 2021 12:00 pm PDT

In the words of the legendary Bruce Buffer…ITS TIME! We are four quarters away from an undisputed Super Bowl Champion.

Introducing first, in the blue corner, the challengers, the number fifth-ranked team in the playoffs, the reigning NFC Champions, and the 2003 Super Bowl Champions, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And in the red corner, the Champions, the number one ranked team in the playoffs, the reigning AFC Champions, and three-time Super Bowl Champions, The Kansas City Chiefs.

Many have spoken about this match being a changing of the guard between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, but you try telling Brady that after the season he has had.

Let’s have a look at their recent head-to-head records before analyzing each team and concluding with my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs betting pick. 

This is a fixture that the Buccaneers have dominated, having won five of the six matches between them. They have averaged a touchdown and 50 yards more per game than the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs won the last game, which was this season when they pipped the Buccaneers winning 24-27 in Tampa Bay.

The Chiefs flew out of the traps taking a 17-0 lead into the second quarter. The second and third quarters were shared, ten points apiece. Then the Buccaneers rallied in the last, winning the fourth quarter 14-0, but they just fell short.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds

Buccaneers +3.5-110
Chiefs -3.5-110
Buccaneers To Win+150
Chiefs To Win-162
Over 56.5-110
Under 56.5-110

The top online betting sites have set the spread based on their meeting this season. The points total looks very high, even for two great attacking teams like these.

Buccaneers Form

This is the first time in NFL history that a team has reached the Super Bowl hosted in their city. The Super Bowl was last held here in 2009 when the Steelers beat the Cardinals in an absolute belter of a game. The Bucs have a perfect record in the Super Bowl, having only reached it once they beat the Oakland Raiders back in 2003.

The Buccaneers reached the Super Bowl by beating the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. Although the 31-26 scoreline is close, the Bucs never fell behind in the game once and always seemed to control the match.

Latest Betting Trends for Tampa Bay
Bet Type Trend
ATS They have won four of their last five games.
Total Four of their previous six games have gone over the betting total.
SU The Bucs have won their last seven games in a row.
Total Their games at home have been slightly less entertaining recently as four of the last six have gone under the points total.
ATS Tampa Bay is 4-1 in their previous five games when playing at home against the Chiefs.
SU The Bucs won five of their last seven games against teams from the AFC.
ATS They have only lost one of their previous six games against teams based in the AFC’s West Division.
Total The total has gone over in 13 of their last 20 games played on a Sunday.

The Bucs have the second-best offense in the NFL this season, and they are in sparkling form, having scored 30 plus points in six games in a row. They have scored 42 passing touchdowns this season, which is the second-highest in the NFL.

They have one way of playing, and that is to get the ball to Brady and let him do his thing. And why would they change this? The Patriots did this for years, and look how successful they have been.

Brady spoke recently about the impact his predecessor Peyton Manning had on him and his game. It feels like a very appropriate time for this interview to have taken place.

One area that could be crucial and perhaps gets overlooked is their field goal kicking. In such a tight contest, this area could be vital, and the Bucs have managed to make two of the three kicks taken from over 50 yards away. They also have a field goal block to their name this season.

It will also be interesting to see who kicks off as if it’s the Bucs; they could start this game on the front foot as they have the highest number of kick-off yards in the NFL this season.

They are well drilled and are often two plays ahead of the game, which results in them not spending much time on the field and keeping their offense fresh.

Their defense isn’t the best, but it hasn’t had to be. Often enough, they do enough to see them over the line in games. They are the number one ranked team for defending against rushes, which may or may not come into play here.

However, they haven’t defended well against passing teams, which could be a problem against Mahomes and the Chiefs. They have allowed their opponents to complete 69% of their passes, which they will need to improve upon here. They will need to home in on Mahomes much quicker than they usually do with other quarterbacks and try and sack him as many times as possible.

Devin White has been at the heart of their defense this season, but the timing of his recent confession of a betting competition between himself and Lavonte David could not have come at a worse time. Many are suggesting that this is a breach of player rules and brings the game into disrepute.

The Bucs expect to have Antonio Brown back for this game as he missed the previous game against the Packers with a knee injury. This is a significant boost to their chances as he has been in fine form scoring five touchdowns in his last four games.

Chiefs Form

The reigning Super Bowl Champions are looking to retain the title for the first time in their history and the first time since 2005 when the Patriots retained their crown. On that occasion, the starting quarterback was none other than Tom Brady, and he will be hoping to stop history from repeating itself.

The Chiefs reached the Super Bowl with a comprehensive 38-24 victory over the Bills to clinch another AFC title. They started that game slow and failed to put a dent in the scoreboard in the first quarter. However, they soon made up for that, scoring 21 points in the second quarter, and they cruised to a comfortable win after that.

Latest Betting Trends for Kansas City
Bet Type Trend
ATS The Chiefs have only won one of their last ten games.
Total Four of their previous six games have gone over the betting total.
SU They have only lost one of their last 13 games.
ATS Kansas City is 1-5 in their previous six games against Tampa Bay.
SU The Chiefs have won their last ten games on the road.
Total The total has gone under in four of their previous six games against teams from the NFC.
ATS They have only won five of their last 18 matches against opponents from the NFCs South Division.

The Chiefs have a formidable offense, and they are the number one ranked passing team in the league. They have only thrown seven intercepted passes all season, which is the second-best record in the NFL.

While they don’t tend to run the ball often, it is something they have in their locker so they could look to mix things up against the Bucs.

Unlike Tampa, they prefer to take their time, and they often beat their opponents by building up pressure until they finally snap.

Their defense isn’t the best either, but it matches up to the Buccaneers offense very well. They don’t particularly do anything spectacularly well in defense, but their best mode of defense is to attack and control the ball, keeping it out of their opponents’ hands. However, they have reduced their opponents to scores of below 30 points in the last seven games in a row.

They set their defense up well and are organized, and every player knows their roles. This has resulted in their opponents completing just 62% of their passes. If they can restrict Brady to a number around that, they would certainly have every chance of winning.

However, much like the Buccaneers, they tend to sit off teams and wait to see where the ball is heading instead of anticipating things. This again leads to a low number of sacks. Perhaps both teams will let Brady and Mahomes duke it out?

Speaking of Mahomes, his rise to fame is a story of coincidence and rejection, which many people can relate to.

However, there are matchups all over the field, like the tight end position between Kelce and Gronkowski. The ‘Gronk’ believes that Kelce is the Chief’s best-attacking weapon and is the real danger man.

The Chiefs will be missing two key players in Fisher and Schwartz for this game. Fisher went off injured against the Bills, and Schwartz has been long term absentee.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 55 Pick

Pick
  • Buccaneers +3.5
    -110

Statistically, the Bucs have a better offense and defense than the Chiefs, so why are the Chiefs the favorites to lift the Super Bowl? The simple answer is, they know how to win. It’s become a habit for them, a habit they won’t want to lose.

However, I’m a firm believer in fate, and the stars seem to have aligned for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this season; and they have got better, week after week, and I feel we will see the climax to their progress here.

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