Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears Betting – NFL Week 5, 2020

By Admir Aljic in NFL
| October 5, 2020 4:22 am PDT

The fifth week of the NFL 2020 season kicks off on Thursday with Tom Brady and the Bucs taking on the Chicago Bears. While they fell short of covering the spread, the Buccaneers got out of Week 4 with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers to bring their record to 3-1. Tom Brady was in fine form as he helped rally his team from a 17-point late second-quarter deficit. The ageless wonder amassed 369 passing yards and five touchdown passes while throwing one pick which was returned 78 yards for a Charger score.

Week 4 wasn’t as kind to the Chicago Bears who took their first loss of the season. Despite Allen Robinson notching 101 yards and a touchdown on his seven receptions, the Bears offense looked less than stellar. Foles connected on 26 of 42 attempts for 249 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Tampa Bay vs. Chicago Odds

Bet Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 +105
Chicago Bears +6 -125
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline -245
Chicago Bears Moneyline +205
Over 45 +100
Under 45 -120

Even though this is a matchup between a pair of 3-1 teams, one of these teams appears to be gelling while the other is experiencing some degree of turmoil. With the Tampa Bay moneyline sitting at -245, it’s not hard to tell what the bookmakers think. However, the plus money on Tampa’s -6 spread would indicate that the bookies expect a relatively close game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

This whole Tom Brady thing seems to be working out well for the Bucs. After four games, the future Hall-of-Famer sits sixth in passing yards and his 11 TD passes rank 3rd overall. But he is getting a lot of help. For starters, his offensive line has done a good job protecting him.

Brady has been sacked just five times. He also has a very good set of receivers at his disposal even without Chris Godwin who is expected to miss this matchup. Tampa will also be without O.J. Howard who could be lost for the season. Lucky for the Bucs, they have good depth at tight end.

Let’s put the moneyline and spread aside for the moment and concentrate on the game total of 45. The Bucs have a couple of Over trends working for them. The Over is 10-1 in Tampa’s last 11 games against NFC opponents and it’s 12-2 in their last 14 overall. It’s 7-2 in their last nine road games and 8-2 in their last 10 on grass. They have also averaged a little over 32 points in their last three games.

Chicago Bears Analysis

The Chicago Bears aren’t what you’d call an offensive juggernaut. Quite the opposite. With the exception of a 21-point fourth quarter outburst in Atlanta, the Bears have failed to find any sort of offensive consistency.

Their running game is flat and Allen Robinson appears to be the sole threat in the passing game. On the flip side, their defense has been quite good. Opponents are averaging a respectable 20 points so far.

As strong as Tampa’s Over trends are, the Bears have been an Under machine at home in recent years. The Under is 11-2 in Chicago’s last 13 home games.

In those games, the Bears have only reached the 25-point plateau twice. They have also kept opponents to 25-points or less in all but two of those games.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Pick

There are strong cases for both the Over and the Under, so let’s get back to the 6-point spread. The Bears are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall.

It’s not like Tampa is a cover machine either, but they’ve been solid on the road of late covering four of their last five spreads away from home. They have also covered their last four straight as road favorites.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6



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