Prediction and Best Bets for Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns (UFC 264)

| July 6, 2021 8:16 am PDT

It’s time to reveal my predictions and betting pick for Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns at UFC 264 in Las Vegas.

This welterweight clash serves as the co-main event of the evening on Saturday, July 10. Of course, the night of fights will be headlined by the rubber match between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. That fight is getting all the attention, but this one could end up being even better. Seriously.

I have put together the odds for Thompson vs. Burns, as well as a few of the best bets to place on UFC 264’s supporting act. I’ll be providing a little analysis for my picks, so make sure to stick with me for that.

First things first, who wins this fight?

Who Wins – Thompson or Burns?

  • Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO

If your heart is set on Wonderboy to beat Burns, you’ll be happy to learn that I’m with you.

Although the Brazilian has incredible jiu-jitsu and real stopping power, I prefer Thompson’s technical nous in this particular matchup. I’ll get to why that is a little later. 

I’m pretty sure you’d like to see the odds for Thompson-Burns before I break things down. If so, keep reading. 

Latest Odds for Thompson vs. Burns

Stephen Thompson’s Odds to Win-160
Gilbert Burns’ Odds to Win+130

You can find odds for Thompson to beat Burns at UFC 264 over at BetUS.

Wonderboy has been one of the most spectacular welterweights on the planet since hooking up with the promotion in 2011. Ten years later, and two failed title shots against Tyron Woodley, he finds himself just one win away from another crack at glory. 

Burns’ odds to beat Thompson are sure to get the juices flowing. 

The man known as “Durinho” is coming off his own failed shot at the welterweight strap. A knockout loss to Kamaru Usman broke Burns’ heart and snapped a six-fight win streak that included victories over Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, and Gunnar Nelson.

What a fight this promises to be. 

Best Bets for Thompson vs. Burns

Thompson to Win-160
Fight Under 2.5 Rounds+130
Thompson to Win Inside Distance+275

The first of my betting tips for Thompson vs. Burns is to take Wonderboy to win. 

Those odds are good enough to with. I mean, there are some tangibles and intangibles to discuss when it comes to predicting the course of this fight. But ultimately, Thompson should get the win.

If you’re looking for the best odds for Thompson-Burns, you can get close to +300 for him to win inside the distance. Of all the top UFC 264 props, this has to be the one that stands out in this fight. 

Now, if you can’t separate these two warriors, perhaps a bet on the fight to end under 2.5 rounds will work for you. Burns will almost certainly come out of the traps like a man possessed and will be fighting a strategy built on shutting down his man from the get-go.

Unfortunately for Durinho, it won’t work. Here’s why. 

Why Thompson Beats Burns

When it looked as though Stephen Thompson was fading, he comes back with a bang. 

Things were not going his way at all, and dropping losses to Tyron Woodley (a dubious defeat to) Darren Till and his first-ever KO defeat in MMA didn’t help his cause. But anyone watching his last two wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal can see that the man has plenty left in the tank. 

That’s bad news for the Brazilian but underlines why my betting picks for Thompson vs. Burns leans toward the American putting on another show for fans. This time, however, he should get the finish over a very game Burns.

Burns’ striking is what you would expect from a solid Muay Thai student. He’s got an excellent submission game. But finding range against a guy as defensively sound as Wonderboy is no mean feat. If he’s going to get him to the mat, he’s looking at taking a guy down with almost 80% takedown defense

Thompson can control the pace from the outside, and pretty much piece Burns up from a safe distance. His sideways stance and excellent use of lateral movement make him a nightmare to work out. And unfortunately, Burns does possess the capacity to cut the cage off and make him pay. 

The latter’s lack of adaptability has influenced my predictions and betting pick for Thompson vs. Burns. I think he’s in for a tough day at the office. 

Where to Bet on Thompson vs. Burns at UFC 264

That’s my Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns betting preview done. 

If you’re looking to bet on Thompson vs. Burns, why not check out these top MMA betting apps? I’d certainly suggest looking through a few of them to pinpoint the top props for UFC 264’s co-main, especially with some really good odds doing the rounds.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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