Best Sleepers for the Federated Auto Parts 400 (2021)

| September 10, 2021 7:50 am PDT

If you’re looking for sleeper picks and value bets for the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400, keep reading.

The second race of the Round of 16 goes down this Saturday, September 11, from Richmond Raceway in Virginia. Denny Hamlin booked the first spot in the next round of the playoffs with his win last week, and he is among the favorites with the oddsmakers.

I’ll be looking past Hamlin and co. today as I reveal my top value picks and sleepers. You can find the latest odds for the Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders, as it’s known this year, on the safest apps for betting on NASCAR

But before you do that, I’d suggest sticking with me as I reveal my value picks, longshots, and outside bets for Richmond.

Let’s do it.

Austin Dillon (+5000)

The first of my 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 sleepers is Austin Dillon at +5000

Dillon missed out on the Playoffs, which means that the bookies aren’t mega keen on his chances of winning the race this Saturday. As history has shown, betting on Cup Series Playoffs drivers to win post-season races is usually the way forward, so backing the Richard Childress Racing star to take the checkered flag would be a gamble.

In our guide to NASCAR betting strategy, our experts discuss multi-phase strategies used by teams to help Playoffs drivers. RCR has just Tyler Reddick in the mix, which means that Dillon will have, for the most part, a free role to play. This could be vital to his chances of winning at Richmond. 

Austin Dillon’s record at Richmond is solid. He has finished outside the top-10 just once in his last five starts, bagging fourth place in 2020’s edition of the race.

The 31-year-old is not the first driver anyone will think of ahead of Saturday’s trip to Virginia. But he just might be the best sleeper pick for the Federated Auto Parts 400. 

At these odds, Dillon is worth a couple of dollars to win. The smart money is backing the RCR man to finish in the top-5 (+700). 

Ultimately, it’s up to you how you arrange your NASCAR Playoffs sleeper picks for this weekend. But don’t count Dillon out, who took 10th at last weekend’s Cookout Southern 500.

This next driver finished 3rd in that race and is another candidate to think about.

Ross Chastain (+5000)

What a result it was for young Chastain in Darlington last weekend.

It wasn’t his best finish of the season, however, as he finished runner-up to Kyle Larson in Nashville in June.

Chastain has been plugging away but under the radar. Some impressive performances have gone unnoticed with bettors, and this is pretty clear given the bookies’ odds of +5000 for him to win.

Although Chastain’s odds are worthy of a bet, make it small. If you’re looking for real value, the NASCAR props markets are where it’s at for the Chip Ganassi Racing driver.

Three top-4s and six top-8s from 14 races in 2021 are nothing to scoff at. Given his profile, I think we could be in line to see another big race from the Floridian. 

NASCAR odds for the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 make Chastain a sweet +200 to finish in the top-10. I’ll take that!

Cole Custer (+8000)

Custer makes my list of betting tips for the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 on account of his big price.

At +8000, he’s not considered to be a frontrunner by any measure. I don’t expect him to win the race either, especially as this is the post-season domain we are in. 

But how about Custer to finish in the top 10 at 400? Alternatively, there is also value in backing the youngster to win Group E over Matt Di Benedetto, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Daniel Suarez, with Bovada offering +325.

Custer has yet to crack the top-10 in any race at Richmond. The best he has managed to date was 14th in 2020, but the bottom line is that he has just three Cup Series starts here.

There are multiple options when it comes to betting on Custer. You can go with a small wager for him as a Federated Auto Parts 400 outside bet to win, or stick with one of the choices above.

Whatever you choose to do, consider the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year. Especially with Stewart-Haas Racing’s star, Kevin Harvick, unlikely to win this race.

It’s worth noting that Custer finished 11th in last weekend’s Cookout Southern 500, just one place behind Austin Dillon.

More Advice and Betting Tips for the Cup Series Playoffs

I’m looking forward to seeing if my sleepers and Federated Auto Parts 400 betting tips pay off this Saturday. 

With little value in the drivers playing in post-season, guys like Austin, Chastain, and Custer are worth looking at for value. As explained above, it’s rare to see a non-Playoffs driver win at this stage of the season. And while it’s not impossible, it’s better to opt for smart prop bets rather than reckless wagers.

For more recommended bets, check out our picks section. Also, give the following piece a read for more advice and tips for betting on the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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