Sleeper Picks for the 2021 NASCAR Toyota Owners 400

| April 17, 2021 5:06 am PDT

Got some spare change jingling around your pockets? Why not check out my value bets and sleepers for the Toyota Owners 400 and see if any are worthy of a shot.

The 2021 Cup Series has already seen some crazy results, with William Byron, Michael McDowell, and Christopher Bell claiming playoff spots in the first three events. Sure, “normality” has been resumed in recent weeks, but there are some amazing long-shot odds available for this weekend.

Could one of my sleepers for the Toyota Owners 400 make you some money at Richmond this Sunday? Maybe. At the very least, these picks should make you sit up and notice if you’re looking for NASCAR value bets for the next race on the calendar.

Let’s start with a veteran driver heading to Virginia below the radar.

Kurt Busch +3500

Busch hit a home run by winning the South Point 400 in his hometown of Las Vegas last year.

That was his last win on the Cup Series calendar. But given his experience and ability to spring a surprise, I’d class the 2004 Cup Series king as one of the best sleepers for the Toyota Owners 400 this Sunday.

Busch will take to the No. 1 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE for Chip Ganassi Racing with his eyes on another Cup Series Playoffs run in 2021. Having made the Round of 8 last year, the 42-year-old is not ready to join the likes of Jimmy Johnson and Clint Bowyer in retirement.

With two wins from 39 starts at the Richmond Raceway, in addition to seven top-5s and fifteen top-10s, Busch is an old proven dog in Virginia. He has finished in the top-18 in his last five races here, finishing fourth in 2017.

Busch’s odds to win the race make him one of the more attractive sleeper picks for the Toyota Owners 400.

Here’s a reminder of his last win.

Austin Dillon +4000

With an average finish of 10.60 from his last five races at Richmond, Dillon is exceptional value at +4000.

With one top-5 and three top-10s since February 2018, he will jump behind the wheel of the No. 3 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE for Richard Childress Racing, aiming to better his last result in this event.

If your memory of the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 is a little blurry, allow me to remind you that he finished 6th that day.

Austin’s odds for Richmond make him a great value bet and a longshot candidate to win the race. But at the very least, he is worth a couple of George Washingtons to finish in the top-5. If he can find his speed and control early, he’ll be a nuisance in the midfield and a threat to the leading pack.

Dillon makes my list of the best sleepers for the 2021 Toyota Owners 400 on merit. He has proven himself to be a fairly consistent performer here. He will be more than confident of smashing his best finish of fourth at Richmond, which he registered at the Federated Auto Parts 400 in September.

Despite a pit road penalty, I might add.

Aric Almirola +5000

Almirola has a respectable finish of 15.53 from 17 starts at Richmond.

However, he has registered some fine performances on the track that make his odds for Sunday look like good value. I mean, he cracked the top-8 in September and finished 5th in 2018’s Federated Auto Parts 400. Within the space of four events, that’s very encouraging.

Although the Stewart-Haas driver has failed to light the world on fire this season, he is more than capable of making a mark on this race. A confident driver, Almirola could benefit from a good early start and push himself into contention.

At +5000, he is worth some of that spare change on the dresser.

Ryan Newman +10000

The last of my longshots and sleepers for the Toyota Owners 400 is Ryan Newman.

At huge odds, Newman is not considered the strongest driver for this race. But a look over his stats and previous returns at Richmond makes him a 2021 Toyota Owners 400 longshot worth checking ahead of Sunday’s event.

An average finish of 12.62 from 39 starts is pretty good by anyone’s standards. He has finishes of 7th, 3rd, 9th, and 5th from his last seven races on this track and has one win and two runner-up finishes, albeit earlier in his career.

A man who knows this track like the back of his hand is always worth some pocket change. But I recommend checking Newman’s odds to finish in the top-10 or even top-5 for some top-notch betting value.

The favorite for the race, Martin Truex Jr., will also be the polesitter. But make sure to keep Newman in your thoughts for those longshot bets!

And That’s It!

All good things must come to an end, and this piece covering my Toyota Owners 400 sleeper picks is no different.

I only hope that the candidates above serve you well for Sunday’s race. There are some big odds available for the race, but I’m happy with the four drivers I have picked today.

For more top odds and bets for NASCAR and other sports this weekend, check out the best online betting sites.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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