Sleeper Picks for the 2021 Instacart 500

| March 10, 2021 11:18 am PDT

With the Pennzoil 400 now in the rearview, it’s time to talk betting on the Instacart 500.

Or to be more specific, betting on Instacart 500 sleepers. You know, those NASCAR longshot bets and big value picks for the big one at the Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona this Sunday, March 14?

The good news for those looking to win money gambling on the Instacart 500 is that there are some juicy sleeper picks for the race this weekend. 

So, if it’s big odds for the NASCAR this weekend you seek, keep reading and you will find them!

William Byron +1600

When talking sleepers for the Instacart 500, Hendrick Motorsports’ Byron is a good shout at +1600.

Byron stormed to the finish line to win the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 in February before finishing 8th in Vegas last weekend.

He will be targeting a big Sunday at Avondale, and I think he has the juice to register his best performance on this track. 

His best finish at Phoenix is 9th, which he matched in November’s Series Finale having clocked the same result in the 2018 Can-Am 500. 

Byron has some of the best odds for the Instacart 500 sleepers that you will find in the upper to mid-range region. So, if you’re looking for a huge NASCAR longshot bet for this weekend, he’s not your guy.

However, at these odds, he deserves attention.

Aric Almirola +4000

Now, speaking of 2021 Instacart 500 sleeper picks, Almirola’s odds will be appealing to those looking to make money on the race.

Almirola was the first of my sleeper tips for the Instacart 500. Why? Well, odds of +4000 seem to be generous for a guy with a solid recent record on this track. 

The driver in the No. 10 Ford Mustang has two top-5s and five top-10s from his last seven at Phoenix. That’s a particularly good return.

When we consider his average finish of 9.67 since February 2018, there are only four drivers in this time with better records on the track.

They are as follows.

Kyle Busch 3.33
Kevin Harvick 4.83
Kyle Larson 7.00
Denny Hamlin 7.83

Almirola is not just the best sleeper for the Instacart 500 in 2021. He is also the best longshot for NASCAR at Phoenix this weekend.

Cole Custer +8000

Custer has started twice at Phoenix in the Cup Series.

The youngster registered 9th on his debut at the FanShield 500 in March last year, and 28th in the Season Finale the following November.

Now, those numbers alone don’t jump out and make him one of the top sleepers for the Instacart 500. There is a little more to picking Custer to win this Sunday, and it has to do with backing his potential on this track.

So, Custer is a big value bet for Instacart 500 at the odds above.

Yes, he requires a big, big race to pull off just his second Cup Series win since victory in Kentucky last summer. But I don’t believe a win is beyond him. In fact, I think he will in the mix and is a great shout for a top-10 finish, at least.

Erik Jones +10000

The last of my top Instacart 500 sleepers is Erik Jones.

Jones’ odds are well worth a look, given his solid form so far this season. He finished 14th in Daytona and 10th last week in Las Vegas and has generally looked capable of springing a surprise in 2021.

Jones has one top-5 and four top-10s at Phoenix from nine career starts. His best finish here was fourth in November 2017, and I’m backing him to put in a good shift this Sunday.

Simply put, Jones’ odds for the Instacart 500 are far too good to overlook. Sure, he might not be among the best 2021 Instacart picks, but as a sleeper, he’s probably the best long shot there is this weekend.

More Instacart 500 Betting Tips

That just about wraps up all there is to know about the best Instacart 500 sleeper picks ahead of the race this Sunday, March 14.

I’m confident that all four of these guides are suitable betting candidates for Phoenix this weekend. But if I had to choose just one sleeper pick for the Instacart 500, there is no doubt that Aric Almirola would be my guy. 

If you’re looking to bet on the race this Sunday, you can do so by visiting the best NASCAR betting apps and sites. There you will find odds for all drivers taking part at Avondale. 

But before you decide on your Instacart 500 wagers, make sure to read my betting preview for the 2021 Instacart 500, below.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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