Sleeper Picks for the 2020 BMW Championship – 4 Dark Horses at Olympia Fields

| August 24, 2020 1:13 pm PDT

It’s the final opportunity for PGA Tour players to cash their ticket to Atlanta. With only 30 men securing a tee time next week at East Lake, expect to see some aggressive mindsets bustling around at Olympia Fields.

Perhaps that opens the door for some BMW Championship sleepers to step through and claim the trophy.

After scoping the odds and shopping prices, a few individuals stand out.

Russell Henley +8000

+8000 is a juicy number for a three-time PGA Tour winner who is coming off 9th at the Wyndham Championship and 8th at the Northern Trust.

Playing bogey-free golf over the first 36 at TPC Boston tells me Henley’s short game is in order. Playing his final seven holes four-under-par just to squeak into the top 70 alludes to Russell’s ability to grind.

One of the streakiest players in the game is clearly displaying some solid form, and Henley won’t show up to this golf course blind as a good portion of the field will. Russell placed 28th at the 2009 Olympia Fields Illini Invitational (won by Harris English).

Joaquin Niemann +15000

Missing three of his last five cuts has sent Joaquin Nieman tumbling down the FedEx Cup standings. Now sitting 31st and on the outside looking in (to East Lake) hardly anyone is giving the 21-year-old Chilean a chance.

With that in mind, spotting “Joaco” at +10000 at one of the top golf betting sites qualifies him as a BMW Championship sleeper. Nevertheless, it was seeing Niemann at +15000 at MyBookie that really got me perked up.

Precision with irons is arguably the most important stat to pay attention to this week and that happens to be the area of the game in which Joaquin excels the most. Case in point – Nieman’s ranked 4th in proximity from 125-150 yards and is even better from 175-200 yards (3rd).

Cameron Smith +15000

After seemingly losing his game following his triumph at the Sony Open, Cameron Smith has quietly clawed his way back and garnered a bit of momentum. The Aussie has improved his finishes in four straight events (68th-59th-43rd-18th) and placed 12th at the 2017 BMW Championship an hour up the road at Conway Farms.

What I especially like about this kid is his unwavering attitude and the fact that he never gives up – which bodes really at an event without a 36-hole cut.

Remember, Smith won in Hawaii despite being four-over-par through two holes on Thursday. And after starting last week’s Northern Trust with a double-bogey on his very first hole, Cameron played his next 41 holes without a blemish on his card.

Joel Dahmen +20000

Forget about +12000 or +16000 even though those are salivating prices. Joel Dahmen is lurking at +20000 to win the BMW Championship at Bovada. Consider this an endorsement to latch on for a few bucks.

Talk about a dude who is hungry for competition, a rare missed cut in Boston didn’t stop Joel from seeking out some action.

Don’t get it twisted – this bucket cap-wearing mustached-man is a superb pure ball-striker who shot 58 during the hiatus and has racked up four tops 20s since the restart.

At #41 in the FedEx Cup standings, Joel’s got nothing to lose and everything to gain. Given the major upside attached to +20000 odds, Dahmen backers are in a similar position.

More BMW Championship Picks

Are you ready to ride these BMW Championship sleepers or would you rather key in on one of the favorites?

Betting on DJ or Rahm makes plenty of sense, and don’t forget that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 U.S. Amateur right here at Olympia Fields.

However, I went in a different direction when it came down to locking in a BMW Championship prediction.

Check out my pick here.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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