Serie A Predictions and Best Bets – April 10-12, 2021

| April 10, 2021 1:25 am PDT

There were plenty of goals for fans to savor in Serie A last weekend, with half of the ten games producing four or more. Inter only needed one to beat Bologna, though – and the victory kept the Nerazzurri at the top of the league, with the lead extended thanks to Milan’s inability to beat Sampdoria.

The race for the remaining two Champions League places continues at a pace, and the battle against relegation at the other end of the table. Even Crotone got in on the goals act by scoring three against Napoli. Unfortunately for the bottom-placed club, its opponent managed four.

There is another full set of fixtures this weekend, beginning with Spezia vs. Crotone on Saturday and goes through Monday. I’ll be taking a look at all ten games on matchday 30 and picking out three of the best bets to consider in the Italian top flight this weekend.

Spezia to Beat Crotone

This won’t be the easiest of Spezia’s games, as it looks to pull away from the relegation zone. But Vincenzo Italiano’s side will be buoyed by the recent win against Cagliari and the narrow defeat to Lazio last time out. The Serie A minnow enjoys a seven-point gap between itself and the bottom three at the moment. It might feel as though beating Crotone in the early game on Saturday might even be enough to secure its top-flight status for another year.

Crotone won’t give up without a fight, though. Serse Cosmi has transformed the team since joining in March and, although results have not greatly improved, there is definitely more enjoyment in this part of the peninsula now. The 4-3 thriller with Napoli last week is a good case in point. The Champions League-chasing Partenopei was put through its paces to earn the three points, and Crotone will test Spezia just as intently on Saturday.

Parma and Milan to Draw

Parma could only draw with Benevento last weekend but equalized with just minutes to go to earn the point, treating it like a victory of sorts. Roberto D’Aversa does need some actual victories, as Parma remains in the bottom three. But there have been much better performances recently – and a lot of goals being scored – so this could be a tricky assignment for Milan. A draw is not out of the question.

Milan will also be hurting after virtually handing the scudetto to Inter with the draw at home with Sampdoria last week. The Blucerchiati even had to play with just ten men after Adrien Silva was sent off with half an hour still to play, but Milan was still fortunate to score with just three minutes to go to snatch a point. That leaves the Rossoneri 11 points behind Inter and now concentrating on keeping Juventus, Atalanta, and Napoli at bay to consolidate second place.

Udinese to Beat Torino

Udinese has lost its last two games after a string of positive results. But, considering those two fixtures were against Atalanta and Lazio, Luca Gotti will not be too downhearted. The Friulani has done enough this year to enjoy a very comfortable mid-table position and will not be troubling either end of the table before this season finishes. Another three points from this one will make that even more certain.

Torino was unlucky not to finally beat Juventus after last weekend’s Derby della Mole ended in a 2-2 draw. Cristiano Ronaldo salvaged a point for the champions with a goal ten minutes from time – and the winless run continues.

The Granata will also be without keeper Salvatore Sirigu on Saturday, who has tested positive for COVID.

Davide Nicola has worked wonders with this team but faces a tough task here.

Inter to Beat Cagliari

Inter followed up last weekend’s win against Bologna with another three points from the rearranged fixture with Sassuolo on Wednesday and now enjoys an 11-point gap at the top of the league. It now seems as though it is Inter’s scudetto to lose. Antonio Conte will still expect his players to put the hard work in, so a convincing win against Cagliari on Sunday could be on the cards. Both Lukaku and Martinez scored in the week and will be looking for more against the Sardinians.

On the other hand, Cagliari is beginning to run out of time in its bid to escape relegation to Serie B. Leonardo Semplici had seemed to have changed things around after taking over from the sacked Eusebio Di Francesco in February. Still, there have now been three straight defeats. The home reverse against Hellas Verona being the most recent of those. The Rossoblu will need all the experience like Nainggolan, Rugani, and Godin to beat the drop.

Hellas Verona and Lazio to Draw

Verona’s hopes of European qualification have all but disappeared after three consecutive defeats in March. So head coach Ivan Juric will have been pleased to see his team turn things around by beating Cagliari away from home last weekend. A lack of goals has been a problem all season – one that wasn’t solved by the loan signing of Kevin Lasagna from Udinese in January. He finally ended his drought deep into stoppage time last week, so he may have a little more confidence now.

But if Lazio doesn’t win this one, it will be because of the home side’s defense. The Aquile will need its attacking players at their very best to break down a stubborn backline and midfield. Lazio needed a very late penalty from Caicedo to take all three points from the game with Spezia last weekend. But head coach Simone Inzaghi will have to do without Lazzari and Correra for this one after they both received red cards in stoppage time of the same game.

Juventus to Beat Genoa

Juventus could only draw with city rivals Torino in the Derby della Mole last weekend but bounced back on Wednesday with a very good win against Napoli. The Old Lady dominated the encounter, with Napoli only scoring a consolation penalty goal in the very last minute.

Those three points were desperately needed in what is looking like an exciting race for the Champions League places now.

Three more here will help with that as well.

Genoa could not take advantage of a red card for Franck Ribery at the weekend and ended up with just a point from the game against Fiorentina. The Grifone enjoyed a man extra for nearly half the game but still only ended up with a draw. The hard work has been done, of course. Davide Ballardini transformed the side when he arrived in December, taking Genoa from relegation certainties to a very comfortable mid-table position. Defeat on Sunday will not be too much of a bother now.

Napoli to Beat Sampdoria

Sampdoria ended Milan’s hopes of catching Inter at the top of the table last weekend and can now throw a spanner in the works for Napoli’s Champion League qualification dreams if it can repeat the trick on Sunday. It was almost three points for Samp in the San Siro after Fabio Quagliarella opened the scoring. But it was always going to be a tough task once the Blucerchiati went down to ten men around the hour mark. The defense was finally breached just minutes from time.

Napoli will be wanting to get on the front foot early on this Sunday, after losing to Juventus in Turin on Wednesday. That followed the excitement of the weekend’s game against Crotone, in which seven goals were shared with the bottom-placed side. Gennaro Gattuso won’t have enjoyed giving the Calabrians so much of a chance and will now demand another improved performance this weekend.

Roma to Beat Bologna

Roma once again failed to beat one of the top teams in Serie A last weekend after only managing a draw with Sassuolo away from home. That result leaves the Giallorossi seven points off the top four and seemingly only in the race for the Europa League and Europa Conference League spots. Paulo Fonseca’s side looked very good in the Europa League in midweek, beating Ajax away from home in the quarterfinal first leg. But there needs to be more of that determination shown in Serie A too.

Roma should still be able to beat Bologna at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday. The Rossoblu has managed to carve out a mid-table place in the league this season but has not been able to win many points off the top sides. The home defeat to Inter on Saturday was just the latest example of that. But Sinisa Mihajlovic will be content with keeping the club safely away from the bottom of the table all season, even if it loses against Roma.

Atalanta to Beat Fiorentina

Fiorentina will have been pleased just to pick up a point from its game with Genoa last weekend after the emotional scenes surrounding Cesare Prandelli’s resignation as head coach the week before. Former manager Beppe Iachini has taken over and overseen a well-fought for a draw after losing Franck Ribery to a red card just after the halftime break.

There is probably enough of a gap between the Viola and the bottom three now, so defeat to Atalanta will not change much for the club.

Atalanta will be happy with the three points, though. Just one defeat in the last nine Serie A games has seen La Dea consolidate a Champions League place – but it is all very tight at the top now. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side is just two points ahead of Napoli in fifth and another four in front of Lazio, who also has a game in hand. There is absolutely no room for error, and Atalanta should be doing all it can to beat sides like Fiorentina to keep that top-four finish dream alive.

Benevento to Beat Sassuolo

It is looking like Pippo Inzaghi will be able to keep his Benevento side up this season, as Le Streghe enjoys an eight-point gap between itself and the bottom three at the current time. An amazing win over Juventus before the international break made a world of difference – and the draw with fellow strugglers Parma last weekend has introduced a favorable buffer for the southern club. Another victory should just about do it for Benevento.

Sassuolo may be a little tired after playing in the week against Inter after managing a draw at home with Roma on Saturday. The Neroverdi now look out of the running for a European place after a series of draws and defeats in the last few months. Head coach Roberto De Zerbi is still getting a performance out of his players – and a few goals along the way – but limited resources compared to other clubs in the top half of the division are beginning to affect.

My Top Serie A Picks for April 10-12, 2021

Here are my top three selections for the weekend’s games on matchday 30..

Parma and Milan to Draw 3.60
Udinese to Beat Torino 2.30
Hellas Verona and Lazio to Draw 3.30

There are some very interesting games in Serie A this weekend, and I’m not sure all of them will go the way that many people think. One of those is Milan’s trip to Parma. After virtually handing the scudetto to Inter last weekend, I think there may be a sense of despair in the Rossoneri ranks, something that Parma may well take advantage of.

I have been incredibly impressed with how Davide Nicola has given Torino a fighting chance of staying up this season since taking over as head coach. But the Granata still has a limited squad, and I feel it will struggle against a Udinese side that has looked very good in recent months. The home win bet seems most likely to come through here.

My final pick of the weekend is for Hellas Verona to frustrate Simone Inzaghi and his Lazio players as they attempt to build up the points to push for a Champions League place. Verona is defensively solid, and I don’t think that a more desperate Lazio will be able to break through for the victory.

Dan Roberts
Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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