Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians – MLB, June 11, 2021

The Cleveland Indians host the Seattle Mariners in a fun AL showdown on Friday. Aaron Civale toes the rubber for the Tribe, who are still within striking distance for the top spot in the AL Central.

Seattle, meanwhile, isn’t as bad as everyone thought they’d be at this point. The Mariners have kept the boat steady during a 5-5 run and are still sniffing around .500.

Which team can you trust, and which bet stands out? Let’s find out in Friday’s Mariners vs. Indians prediction and betting pick.

The odds favor Cleveland to get a nice home win here. That’s fair, as they have the better pitcher on the mound, and they’re a respectable 18-15 at home.

Seattle has a decent offense, but they’re the inferior team in this matchup. The oddsmakers going with the Indians makes total sense, but the value is fine with Cleveland, and the incentive to bet on the Mariners is also there.

The game total looks about right. Seattle and Cleveland are average teams when it comes to power and run production, and the pitching is decent on Cleveland’s side. Of course, Progressive Field is known more as a hitter’s park and ranks 14th in-home run rating on the year.

Overall, Cleveland initially stands out as the logical pick, and the Over may be the play. Of course, it’s always worth taking a closer look at the matchup to gauge which bet is best for bettors.

The Mariners are up against it a bit in this one. The park is an upgrade, and Cleveland’s offense can go through some serious lulls, but they’re still just 14-19 on the road, and they have to face a solid arm in Aaron Civale.

Civale has been pretty good for Cleveland this year, as he enters with a stellar 8-2 record and a respectable 3.49 ERA. He’s had a bit of a home run problem (13 HR allowed) but has otherwise been his best at home.

I don’t think the Mariners get a ton of help from Justin Dunn here. He’s talented, and on the year, he’s 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He’s also done a fine job keeping the ball in the park.

Cleveland isn’t known for their patience at the plate, but it could still be a problem. Dunn also gives up a good amount of high contact and fly balls, so this could be a bad combination in this spot.

This is surprisingly a tougher game to call than I thought. Neither of these pitchers are elite, and both have had some issues with free passes this year.

Dunn has been worse in that regard, however. He issued an insane eight free passes in his 2021 debut, and he’s walked at least two batters in eight of nine starts. Add in the fly balls and hard contact in this park, and I simply don’t trust him.

Sadly, I really don’t trust Civale a whole lot more.

He’s coughed up way too many long balls, and he isn’t nearly as good as his Cleveland brethren like Shane Bieber. Instead of picking a side here, I am banking on all of the walks, hard contact, and this ballpark promoting a decent amount of scoring.