San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets – MLB, June 11, 2021

| June 11, 2021 5:21 am PDT

MLB fans get a treat on Friday, June 11th, as the San Diego Padres visit the New York Mets for an epic pitching duel.

That’s always possible anytime Jacob deGrom toes the rubber, but an elite southpaw in Blake Snell will be opposing him. These two pitchers have combined for seven wins and 172 strikeouts on the year and could give fans a tense (boring?) showdown.

Both New York and San Diego are near the top of their respective divisions, so this Friday night battle will serve as a pretty big game. How should you bet, though? Let’s find out in tonight’s Padres vs. Mets betting pick and prediction.

Padres vs. Mets Odds for June 11

Padres to Win+148
Mets to Win-161
Over 5.5-120
Under 5.5+100

These are understandable odds at the best MLB betting sites. Jacob deGrom is the least hittable pitcher in baseball and is at home with the surging Mets, who have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games.

New York is the logical favorite here, and they are a staggering 15-5 at Citi Field so far in 2021. deGrom gives them a real shot to win every time out; the Mets have done a better job this year of showing up with run support in his starts.

Of course, the Padres have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball, so they jump off the board as a fun +148 upset pick.

Targeting deGrom isn’t always the smartest idea, but bettors could bank on a lack of run support or San Diego’s elite offense simply doing enough here.

Blake Snell plays into that line of thinking, as he can be a lethal lefty and was flat out nasty in a shutout win against these very Mets in his last start.

Naturally, two very good pitchers going at it in a pitcher-friendly park have this total pretty low. That said, 5.5 is absurdly low. The wild part? It still might not be low enough.

Game Preview for Padres vs. Mets

The pitching isn’t a wash, obviously. It’s a wash in the sense that both teams have truly elite aces operating on the mound on Friday, and it will be extremely hard to score runs.

That said, the edge goes to the Mets when it comes to pitching. Jacob deGrom is dealing this year, as he has a scorching 0.62 ERA and 93 whiffs already.

He also blanked the Padres in a 4-0 win on June 5th, so Snell isn’t the only guy who dropped a gem the last time these two sides met for a series.

Snell can also be had against powerful righties and has been undone by walks in the past. Having to see Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor multiple times can be problematic.

Still, I’d imagine both arms do their jobs, and this is an even (if not scoreless) game going into the 7th inning. From there, though, San Diego has to take the cake as the more patient, deadlier offense.

Padres vs. Mets Pick for June 11

First thing’s first, when you look at how patient the Padres can be – as well as how explosive they can be – I don’t think hammering the Under feels great.

I do expect Snell and deGrom to give us what we want. A pitcher’s duel is on its way.

Both of these guys were insane the last time they saw this matchup (4 total hits, 0 ER), and while seeing the same opponent in consecutive turns can be bad, I don’t fear that here.

The total has just gotten to a tricky spot, so the thing that makes the most sense is to trust the elite pitching but also trust the value.

deGrom is the better pitcher, but it’s not like Snell is some scrub. He iced the Mets the last time he saw them, and he could easily do it again. San Diego has the second most patient offense in baseball, their lineup puts up way more runs, and guys like Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado are a lot for anyone to deal with.

This may very well be a 1-0 game in the end, but I have to favor the more potent offense.

  • Padres to Win
Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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