This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 6, 2020
I handed out three NFL locks last week, and two delivered. Minnesota (+7.5) very nearly beat Seattle, and the game between the Cowboys and Giants went over the projected game total, as expected.
Two out of three will do.
What’s on tap for this week? We still have to navigate potential COVID-19 concerns and some new injuries, but there are a few games that definitely stand out as safe bets to target.
Here’s a look at those games and how to bet in my NFL locks for week 6.
Chicago Bears (+3) -125
I don’t exactly love how the Bears are getting wins, but I think we all need to respect the reality of those wins existing. Twice Chicago should have lost by quite a bit and they rallied (or the team they replaced collapsed), but no matter, they are 4-1 as they stand.
Nick Foles hasn’t looked particularly great, and the Bears don’t necessarily look elite defensively. But they keep finding ways to win, and in week six they face a hot Panthers team (three straight wins) that is arguably playing over their heads just as much as Chicago is.
That said, the Bears are probably the better defensive team, and this game is likely to be close. Chicago is a solid bet to win (+120), but you can play it safe and just bet on them to keep it tight.
The best spread and odds are seen above, and you can find them at MyBookie.
Lions vs. Jaguars Under 54.5 (-111)
The Jags looked like a nice little surprise for a second there, as they jumped out to a 1-0 start and had everyone thinking they were for real.
Four weeks later, they haven’t won a game since, and stand in at 1-4. A lot of people felt this was a team that could contend for the worst record in the NFL by year’s end, and so far, that looks to be accurate.
Jacksonville isn’t a team I normally love to bet on, but this week may demand an exception is made. The Jaguars get the Detroit Lions at home, who are just as bad.
Neither of these teams play good defense, which understandably plays into the large 54.5 game total. However, these teams really don’t push the pace offensively (20th and 27th in plays per game), and they also rank 19th and 25th in points scored per game.
Are the defenses bad enough to get this game to the Over? Sure, but it’s a pretty high total, and you’re having to find yourself trusting spotty offenses. I tend to think this one disappoints a bit.
New England Patriots (-9) +100
One team I doubt will disappoint is the Patriots, who have ample time to prepare for a bad Denver Broncos team.
There are admittedly two things bettors will want to keep in mind here. First, that Cam Newton missed New England’s last game due to COVID-19, and that Drew Lock could make his return from a shoulder injury.
Newton should be back, of course, which is one reason why the Pats are rightful owners of this thick 9-point spread. The Patriots have also been really good defensively again this year, and I’m not sure the Broncos will be some tough out whether Lock plays or not.
Lock would give Denver a more vertical element on offense, but he’s still without star wide receiver Courtland Sutton, and this is a brutal matchup.
New England hasn’t been very good ATS lately (.500 dating back to last year), but this feels like a spot where they can get an easy win and look ahead to tougher matchups.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Over 53.5 (-115)
One more game I feel good about for week six is this Buccaneers vs. Packers showdown. Tom Brady and co. hit a wall against a respectable Bears defense on a short week, but they’ll be looking to bounce back in a big way when they host the Packers.
Aaron Rodgers and co. are well-rested after a bye week, and enter Florida as one of the league’s few undefeated teams. Rodgers is enjoying an NFL MVP-type season, too.
Defensively, the Bucs have a good pass rush, but really aren’t stopping anyone. They allowed 34 points in week one against the Saints, and needed a rally to beat the Chargers two weeks ago.
Losing last week to Chicago doesn’t help them, either.
Regardless, we’re headed for a shootout here. Both of these offenses have a ton of talent, both can offer explosive plays, and both rank inside the top-11 in points scored per game.
Tampa Bay is being disrespected as the home dog here, so you can also look to the Buccaneers to beat the spread, and maybe even win. However, Aaron Rodgers has looked unstoppable, with Green Bay leading the league with 38 points per contest.
They also could be getting back top wide receiver Davante Adams for this game, too.
Davante Adams (hamstring) didn't appear to have any setbacks during the bye and is practicing Monday. Also retuning: Rashan Gary, Chandon Sullivan and Marcedes Lewis — all either didn't play in Week 4 or didn't finish the game. https://t.co/UBTlFeKaay pic.twitter.com/Ryb8OFBjE4— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) October 12, 2020
Even if the Bucs slow them down a bit, I doubt Green Bay and Tampa Bay combined for fewer than 54 total points.
This week does feel a little less advantageous than recent weeks. The top NFL sportsbooks are pricing games a bit closer, and it’s easy to see with a whopping 10 games boasting a point spread of 3.5 or tighter.
That doesn’t really give bettors a ton of wiggle room, but I think we’ve located some quality NFL locks for week six in the picks above.
For more NFL betting advice for this week, feel free to hit up our sports betting picks page.