This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 17, 2020

| December 28, 2020 10:36 am PDT

Week 17 in the NFL is here, which means bettors are getting closer to a condensed betting slate. It’s been a fun ride, but it’s also been filled with some bad beats along the way.

Just look at last week, where the Kansas City Chiefs mustered just 17 points in a pathetic effort against the Falcons. Or consider the past two weeks, where some bettors hammered the opponents of the previously 0-13 Jets hard, only to watch helplessly as New York won both games.

My NFL locks were a swing and a miss last week. Miami won but couldn’t cover a 2.5-point spread, Arizona inexplicably lost to the 49ers, and Kansas City scored just 17 points in a game with a 53.5 total.

Last week was a disaster for most people betting on pro football, but all you can do is pick your head up and press on.

Looking at the early week 17 NFL odds, several bets stand out as potential safe plays. Join me as I break down my favorite week 17 NFL locks.

Chicago Bears (+5.5) -110

This looks like a pretty good point spread to attack, as the Bears are playing very good football at the moment. They’ve ripped off three straight wins and presently slide into the last playoff spot in the NFC.

Chicago has been fairly dominant at times during their recent winning streak, and they have a ton to play for here. They’re also at home, and they’re familiar with a Packers team that could be in for a letdown after a huge win over the Titans in week 16.

Green Bay also needs this game to ensure they lock up the #1 seed, but there’s something to be said about a desperate team. This is basically a playoff game for the Bears, and if they win, they’re in.

Even if the Packers still win, Chicago has major incentive here, and this 5.5-point spread isn’t too thick. Betting on the Bears across the board is pretty appealing to close out the 2020 NFL regular season.

Seattle Seahawks to Win (-220)

I mentioned that the Packers can still earn the top seed in the NFC, which would also grant them a first-round bye and home-field advantage.

Should the Packers lose, however, that could fall to the Seahawks.

Seattle has wrapped up first place in the NFC West and has a very winnable game here against the 6-9 Niners. San Francisco is still fighting to compete (they just won last week), but it wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Seahawks to blow this one with the #1 seed on the line.

If the Packers choke, the bettors could have two hammer bets here, as Chicago straight up is a very interesting bet (+210), and Seattle to win just feels like a safe play.

Both of these games are also happening at the same exact time on Sunday, so the incentive will not wane for either side.

Seattle is going to play for the win in an attempt to lock up one of the top two seeds, and this -220 moneyline at BetNow really isn’t too bad for a game I can’t imagine them losing.

Tennessee Titans (-7.5) -107

One other safe NFL bet for week 17 figures to be a big win by the Titans. They got crushed by the Packers this past weekend, but this is kind of what they do.

Seemingly every week, they either bring it in a blowout win, or they get housed, themselves.

Tennessee did surprisingly little in a big game in week 16, but they’ll have no choice but to turn right back around and crush the Texans.

This is a rivalry game that Houston could, in theory, get up for, but my guess is they’re not a team we should be trusting in any regard. J.J. Watt’s rant probably says it all.

Houston is a team that lost to the Bengals this past week, and they’ve dropped four straight in a forgettable 4-11 campaign. They can still do things offensively, but their defense is absolute trash.

This is admittedly a thick spread, but the Titans have the advantage across the board here, and they have all of the incentive in the world to get the win. They know they win the AFC South division and punch their playoff ticket by taking care of business here, so I fully expect them to leave no doubt.


Week 17 is honestly pretty advantageous for bettors. The injury situations, matchups, and incentives for both sides are all fairly black and white.

There should still be some upsets worth targeting, but this could be a pretty good time to roll with favored teams that have real motivation to get the job done.

Arizona failed last week with this logic in mind, but there are still many teams with too much on the line to come out and lay an egg. I’d favor teams like the Bears that are a bit more desperate, of course.

Hopefully, my week 17 NFL locks treat you well. If you want a bit more help making bets on the NFL this week, hit up our NFL picks section link at the top of this page.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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