This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 16, 2020
The Los Angeles Rams did something unforgivable this past week. Not only did they fail to cover an admittedly huge spread, but they even lost to the winless New York Jets.
I truly felt that even a 16.5-point spread was a safe bet. The gap between the Rams was that significant.
And L.A. didn’t travel across the nation to play this game. New York did.
That was brutal, while the Packers also spurned anyone feeling good about the Over in their game. After building an easy 21-3 halftime lead, Aaron Rodgers and co. coasted to a 24-16 win.
Luckily, my NFL locks broke even, as the Seahawks covered, and the Buccaneers got a win at a respectable -210 price.
Nothing is truly guaranteed when it comes to NFL betting, but when looking ahead, there are always going to be bets that certainly feel that way.
So, what are the week 16 NFL locks bettors should be confident in? Here are my favorites.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) -115
In my early week 16 NFL betting odds breakdown, I noted there are a bunch of games that are either projected to be very close or have a lot riding on them.
This clash between the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders can be filed under both categories.
The Raiders probably blew their shot at a playoff spot, but if they beat Miami and get a ton of help, it’s not over just yet. It’s a long shot, though, and Miami is going to be just as desperate as they try to lock into a playoff appearance for just the third time since 2001.
Miami is better coached, they have a far better defense (seriously, it’s not even worth competing), and the Raiders could be down to their backup quarterback.
Source: #Raiders QB Derek Carr suffered a significant groin injury and it’s expected to have a 10-to-14 day timeline. Carr, who has been having one of his best seasons, will fight to be in the lineup against the #Dolphins if he somehow can.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 18, 2020
It’d be a pretty wild story if Marcus Mariota came out and somehow led the Raiders to a miraculous playoff run, but that ship has probably sailed. Miami needs to buckle down and get this win, and I’m thinking they do so fairly convincingly.
An even safer play is for Miami to just win at -140, but I like this price more, and a three-point win isn’t asking a whole lot.
Arizona Cardinals to Win (-182)
I won’t play with the spread when it comes to the Cardinals, who I think will complete the sweep of the free-falling 49ers.
San Francisco hasn’t been the team that made it to the Super Bowl last year, as last week’s loss to the equally suffering Dallas Cowboys suggests.
The 49ers are still well-coached, and they’ve been trying, but they have battled way too many injuries. One of the biggest has been at quarterback, and now they even saw their backup exit with an elbow issue.
Their defense isn’t as nasty as it needs to be to silence Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, especially when Arizona has a clear path to the NFL playoffs if they can keep winning.
With this game in the desert, I expect the Cards to do precisely that in week 16.
Falcons vs. Chiefs Over 53.5 (-110)
I am all-in on this Falcons vs. Chiefs game this week. My week 16 NFL DFS picks have me digging their expensive plays, but if you want to be a bit more contrarian, there’s a slew of cheap ways to get exposure to this game.
One other way to make money off this game is to just bet on it, of course.
Atlanta has made betting on NFL totals a bit problematic at times in 2020, but they gave way to a fun outing last week, and I don’t think they’ll have a choice in this one.
The Chiefs are capable of dropping 40 points on anyone, and Atlanta’s weakness continues to be their pass defense.
Kansas City hasn’t been especially great at running the football, so this looks like the perfect matchup to demand a ceiling game out of Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense.
Kansas City pushing the pace and putting up points should, in turn, force the Falcons to air it out, and suddenly we have a fast-paced, high-scoring affair on our hands.
Yes, it’s possible the Falcons play their ho-hum style and try to grind things out in a boring game. But there is too much offensive upside to go with that angle.
I love the Over in this spot.
A week after breaking even with my NFL locks, I’ll ensure there is no tie with three of my favorite bets to place in the NFL in week 16.
Betting on the NFL is never something to call easy, but there are still always going to be bets that stand out and feel like some of the safest bets to target. If you’re looking for some safer plays, I think the three bets above fit the mold.
There is so much more to consider this week, of course, and NFL fans have a jam-packed week with games being played on four consecutive days.
For more NFL content, hit up our NFL betting blog.