This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 15, 2020
I had a solid week with my NFL locks, as my picks went 2-1. Ideally, I can keep the good times rolling into week 15, where the NFL schedule is spaced out considerably.
Seriously, NFL fans get at least one game on four different days this week. Yeah, it’s going to be fun.
I’m not here to hand out a lock bet for TNF, but I do think a look at the safest bets to target in week fifteen can start on Saturday.
There is always a litany of wagers to consider, but I think I’ve got the best ones in my week 15 NFL locks. Join me as I break each matchup down, as well as why they stand out.
Panthers vs. Packers Over 51.5 (-110)
I think bettors can feel good about the game on Saturday, where the Panthers head to Green Bay to battle the Packers.
Aaron Rodgers and co. are sizable 8.5-point favorites, but when I took a look at the early week 15 NFL betting odds, I wasn’t in love with that spread.
What I do like, however, is the fact that the Packers put up points consistently. They lead the league with 31.6 points scored per game, and they also average 31.5 points per game at home.
#Packers offense is now second in the NFL on third down (49.7 percent) and first in red-zone TD percentage (77.1). Elite offense in many ways, but especially elite situationally.— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) December 14, 2020
This is a pristine matchup for the Packers, too. Carolina has the 7th fewest sacks in the league, and a once relatively stingy secondary has faded (23rd vs. the pass). Carolina also ranks in the middle of the pack against the run, and they’re allowing 25.5 points per game.
None of this should be frightening for the Packers, who have the incentive to keep winning games as the current #1 seed in the NFC.
The nice thing is the Panthers can do enough offensively to contribute here, and it’s possible their offense is even aided by the healthy return of stud rusher Christian McCaffrey.
Whether C-Mac is back or not, I think everything adds up to the Over, while this 51.5 total at BetOnline honestly isn’t very high to begin with.
Buccaneers to Win (-210)
Sometimes you need to ignore point spreads and just take winning bets. It doesn’t hurt when a moneyline isn’t an amazing value but still isn’t a terrible one, either.
That’s how I’d look at the Buccaneers this week. Normally when they’re favored, you’re looking at a high moneyline that pushes -300 or worse. This week, they’re starting off at a still fairly palatable -210.
This admittedly is about as high as I go with most betting favorites, but it feels like a terrific price for a talented team that still has seeding to play for.
Tampa Bay has been really hit or miss in 2020, but they can explode offensively, and there isn’t much logic to suggest they’ll lose to a bad Atlanta Falcons team.
Atlanta can be competitive and their style of play can make NFL total betting quite frustrating. Due to that, I say kick those bets to the curb and just bet on a straight-up Bucs win in week 15.
Seahawks (-4.5) -110
You can do the same with the Seahawks, who are mild favorites on the road against the Washington Football Team. I think they’re another strong moneyline bet, but I think they’re a bit safer when it comes to their point spread.
Why? Because Washington might be without both Antonio Gibson and Alex Smith this week.
I do note Washington’s strong defense and ability to manage games, but the latter kind of gets eliminated if the veteran Smith (calf) isn’t under center.
Alex Smith left Sunday’s game against San Francisco with an injury to his surgically repaired right leg https://t.co/GrSJtUOwjg— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 13, 2020
Seattle’s defensive strength has been their front seven against the run, so even if Gibson were back, Washington would probably not have much of an edge here.
If anything, Dwayne Haskins would be forced to take it to the air, and past results indicate that’d be bad news for Washington.
Seattle also has clear incentive here. They need to win to ensure they make the playoffs, but also for a shot at claiming the NFC West crown.
I think the Seahawks win in week 15, and they’ll probably do so fairly easily.
Rams (-16.5) -110
Lastly, the Rams are also playing for something. They’re right there with Seattle in trying to keep pace to win the NFC West division, and I can’t imagine they’d take too kindly to becoming the first team to lose to the New York Jets.
Pride is a thing in professional sports, and so is talent. I just don’t see a feasible route for the winless Jets to upset a very good Rams team – much less keep it competitive.
Seattle completely trounced the Jets (40-3) last week, and L.A. has a far more dominant defense.
The Rams should harass Sam Darnold early and often, while Jared Goff and co. have the goods to torch a struggling Jets defense that has issues in the secondary.
Nobody really feels amazing about targeting a spread like this, but it’s actually the right bet. In fact, it may very well be one of the safest NFL bets to target in week 15.
Per usual, you can attack all of my week 15 NFL locks at your sportsbook of choice, you can fade them, bet against them, or just pick your spots.
The latter is honestly something I suggest in every sense, whether you’re here for NFL betting advice, insight for another betting genre, DFS – whatever.
My recommended bets and picks aren’t always going to align with your own research and insight, and a great practice for betting on pro football is going with your gut.
Hopefully your gut and my week 15 NFL locks combine for some nice wins. Good luck, and happy betting!