This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 14, 2020

Last week was a solid run for my NFL locks. The Colts and Texans battled to a 26-20 finish, which delivered the Under (-110), and the Jets played the Raiders extremely well (-110) and even nearly got their first win of the year.

Two of my four picks panned out, which brings a mild pat on the back for myself, but also proves once again that very few bets in pro football are truly “safe.”

I always see some bets worthy of being filed as “NFL locks,” of course, and my early week 14 NFL betting lines saw things no different.

With that, here are my week 14 NFL locks.

The Titans got smoked by the Browns a week after easily dispatching the Colts. The consistency isn’t great, but Tennessee remains a talented team with a shot at winning the AFC South.

With so much on the line, I tend to doubt they come and lay an egg against a bad Jaguars team that hasn’t won since week one.

Derrick Henry has a fun history against this team and is among my favorite week 14 NFL DFS picks. 

Derrick Henry eats the Jaguars ALIVE.

Last three games vs. Jax:
⬛️ 53 carries
⬛️ 441 yards
⬛️ 7 TDs
⬛️ 99-yard "Beast Quake”-type run
⬛️ 74-yard TD on Sunday pic.twitter.com/xn6LWtAGHp

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 25, 2019

Look for him to have a huge game as the Titans roll.

Houston probably would have pushed for the Over had Deshaun Watson not fumbled at the goal-line last week. That helped one of my bets convert, but for my week 14 NFL locks, I’ll hope Watson takes care of the ball a bit better.

The reality is the Texans have a good offense, and any game they’re in is going to threaten for the Over.

I certainly would say that’s the case this week, as they get a totally spiritless Bears team that has lost six games in a row. Chicago is just falling apart these days, and week 13 had another epic collapse.

"How to lose a game in 4:33"

Written, directed and performed by the Chicago Bears:https://t.co/pObqK1OwpK

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) December 7, 2020

The Bears have a good matchup and could put up points here, but their once-proud defense has given up an alarming amount of points lately.

I think everything adds up to a bit of a shootout, and this low total is easily surpassed.

This is a very tough game to peg, as everyone seems to expect the Falcons to get into crazy shootouts every week.

However, if you take a closer look, Atlanta prefers to run a lot of plays, run as much as possible, soak up the clock, and take the pressure off of their defense.

It hasn’t always led to wins, but the Falcons rank third in plays per game (Chargers are first), and both of these teams are inside the top-13 in rushing attempts per game.

Both sides do have explosive ability through the air, but the way the Falcons play has led to the Under seven times in 12 games in 2020.

New England also offered a blueprint on how to slow down Justin Herbert in a brutal 45-0 shutout last week. 

The NFL: Justin Herbert is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Bill Belichick: pic.twitter.com/wMeJlxheih

— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) December 6, 2020

I like Atlanta to win here, and they’ll likely do so in an excruciatingly boring fashion.

These aren’t the sexiest plays, but they do appear to be some of the safest week 14 NFL bets. The only one that feels tricky is the Chargers vs. Falcons total, but that’s just because bettors have been conditioned to assume Atlanta wants to put up a ton of points.

In reality, they’re running more than they probably should, and a once terrible defense is playing with pride.

The Falcons have become sneaky competitive, and the Chargers are notorious for collapses and epic failures. I also like the Over in the Texans game, and Tennessee should crush the Jags.

If you’re in agreement with any of my week 14 NFL locks, consider placing a bet on these games wherever you bet on sports online.