This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 13, 2020
NFL betting wasn’t a safe haven for people looking to make money last week. There were a lot of favorites who dropped the ball, and on the main Sunday slate, in particular, games just did not go as expected.
It wasn’t just about who won or lost, either. The literal game scripts were just bonkers. It’s almost as if someone read a book on how the week should logically go and then decided to just get cute and go in a completely different direction.
That’s the NFL in a nutshell at times, of course.
Even so, I’m back to it for week 13, as bettors need some relatively safe wagers they can trust. Before you bet, though, take a look at the early week 13 NFL betting odds to see where the value lies.
Here’s a look at some of my top week 13 NFL locks and why I like them this week.
Colts vs. Texans Under 54.5 (-110)
This game feels like a trap. Yes, on the one hand, the Texans just put up over 40 points on a short week, and the Indianapolis defense has been pretty underwhelming lately.
But the Colts caved against good Packers and Titans offenses. The former game went into overtime, too, while last week’s showdown with Tennessee was a game Tennessee was determined to get.
Indy did start turning the corner in the second half last week, perhaps showing signs of their elite defense coming back to life.
The Colts defense in the second half. pic.twitter.com/CIM6oHWhJ8— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) November 23, 2020
Houston has major offensive upside and believes they can still make a playoff run, but they still don’t have a reliable offensive line or a great rushing game. That, and the last meeting was a low-scoring affair (20-17).
I don’t really trust the Texans here, especially when we know how good the Colts can be on defense. Look for Indy to snap out of their mini-funk and put forth a better effort in this spot. Bet the Under.
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans Under 53 (-110)
They say to always bet the Under, but sometimes the game total is too high when you consider what could go down.
This Browns vs. Titans game is a spot where I am just not excited about the offensive potential. Tennessee reminded us last week (45 points) of how good they can be, but there’s an issue here.
For one, their bread and butter are Derrick Henry and the ground game, and they’ll be facing a solid Browns run defense. Cleveland also plays a very slow brand of football, as they also lean heavily on their ground game to grind out wins.
They have this guy, Nick Chubb, who is pretty good.
Nick Chubb is averaging 12.6 yards per carry in the 4th Quarter of games this season.— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 30, 2020
Even if you remove his 59 and 54 yard carries, he is averaging 8.2 YPC.
Which side wins this matchup? I’m not sure it matters. Cleveland will do all it can to get a lead and protect it. The only way this game gets wild is if the Titans get up big and Baker Mayfield has to throw all day.
Even if that happens, who feels super confident that ends well? Instead, I like the Browns to set the tone early and two power-running offenses to exchange blows in a relatively low-scoring slugfest.
New York Jets (+7.5) -110
Nothing about betting on the Jets is safe, let’s be clear. They just lost to the Dolphins (20-3), and they’ve yet to win a game in 2020.
That said, they’ve had some close calls in recent weeks. They played the Bills pretty tough, and they probably should have taken out the New England Patriots.
For better or worse, New York has Sam Darnold back in the saddle, and they’re the healthiest they’ve been all year on offense. Their defense is even playing fairly well.
This week they have a solid enough matchup against the Raiders, who are coming off of a demoralizing 43-6 loss to the Falcons in Atlanta.
Sure, Las Vegas is the better team and probably wins. But who is going into week 13 thinking it’s impossible the Raiders lose this one? While a full-blown upset may not be the way to go for all bettors, an underdog special is in play.
What’s better for most bettors, of course, is you can get a nice price for the desperate Jets to simply stay within a touchdown over at MyBookie.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Over 49 (-110)
Lastly, we have the Broncos and Chiefs. This game was terrible for Denver several weeks ago when they lost 43-16 in a bit of a blizzard.
That’s wild, as the conditions were bad and Denver’s offense didn’t show up, and this game still totaled 59 points.
Kansas City’s offense is honestly capable of doing most of the damage here, and for some reason, it feels like this price includes the travesty Broncos fans witnessed in week 12.
Drew Lock and/or actual quarterbacks should be available to the Broncos this week, and when you combine the fight they could put up in this spot with KC’s obvious upside, I think you have a game smashing a pretty modest total.
Locating the safest NFL picks isn’t easy because the NFL is about as volatile a sport to bet on as there is. Injuries, moving lines, weather, and mismatches play into a sport where things often are not how they seem.
All you can do is read the matchups the best you can, track the news, and exploit the betting lines you think aren’t quite right.
My week 13 NFL locks do that, as there are some tricky game totals that will probably convince people games are going to be conducted in a fashion they may not.
There are also some spreads worth a look this week. You don’t need to bet on all of my week 13 NFL locks, but hopefully, some of these bets pan out and help you.
For more insight, hit the NFL picks link at the top of this page to find all of our week 13 NFL betting previews. No matter which game you end up betting on, be sure to choose one of the safest sports betting websites available online.