This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 12, 2020

| November 23, 2020 10:09 am PST

Last week was a bad run for my weekly NFL locks. The logic was there, but the picks as a whole fell short. I did produce one winner, though, as the Jets beat a 9.5-point spread in a 34-28 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Miami fell flat in a gimme spot against the Broncos, however, and the second meeting between the Cardinals and Seahawks – while still entertaining – just wasn’t as explosive.

I’ll hit the reset button as I look for the best week 12 NFL locks to target at NFL betting sites.

Chargers vs. Bills Over 52 (-110)

This game should be in flames by halftime. You know those games where just moments in, you whisper to yourself, “should have bet the Over”?

Yeah, this is one of those games.

The Chargers and Bills are about as explosive as NFL offenses come. They both rank inside the top-15 for points per game, they’re top-11 in yards per game, and they’re among the league leaders (7-2-1 and 7-3) in seeing the Over hit in their games.

This is going to be a classic back-and-forth shootout with very little defense. Both sides have two gifted dual-threat passers and a plethora of weapons to go to in the air.

L.A. might even be getting top running back Austin Ekeler back this week.

The only issue here is that this total is probably going to rise. I’m seeing it at 52 at BetOnline right now, but you’ll want to hammer the Over before it gets any higher.

Dallas Cowboys to Win (-150)

This is another week 12 NFL lock I feel pretty good about. I know, having any kind of confidence in an Andy Dalton-led Cowboys team makes anyone feel squeamish, but Dallas looked rather good last week.

The Cowboys always had the offensive talent. They then used a bye week to get Andy Dalton healthy and fully up to speed, and he responded with a fantastic outing.

On paper, the Cowboys have the offensive upside to give any team a fight, and they are very much alive in this year’s playoff race thanks to playing in the despicable NFC East.

Dallas won’t apologize for that, though, and now they welcome a weak Washington team to town on a short week on Thanksgiving Day.

In these types of situations, you don’t need to overthink it. Who benefits the most from the short week here? Who is at home? Who has more talent? All roads lead to Dallas here, and despite the logic supporting this pick, the -150 price to get the win is quite appealing.

Saints vs. Broncos Under 46 (-115)

Lastly, I think the Saints vs. Broncos game ends up being a bit ugly.

New Orleans historically struggles outside on the road, and now they’ve handed their offense over to a quarterback who is better known for his rushing prowess than lighting defenses up with his arm.

To be fair, I actually have Taysom Hill among my top week 12 NFL DFS picks. I think he showed in his first NFL start that he could be aggressive down the field, and obviously, he’s got a terrific floor with his running ability.

But the way this game sets up, Hill probably isn’t going to do a ton of damage through the air. Denver still has a capable pass rush, they like to run the football, and they’ll benefit from the environment.

New Orleans seems content with winning ugly, of course. They stole a 24-9 win at home against the Falcons, and a copy of that is probably what they’ll be seeking.

I think the Saints win here, but it’ll be in a somewhat ugly fashion, and we may see a lot more designed runs for Hill in a game where the Saints just grind it out and try to control the clock.

Once you factor in the strong play of the Saints defense and Drew Lock’s propensity to turn the ball over, and I think a low-scoring affair is a pretty good bet.

Summary

There is no such thing as a safe NFL bet, but these three wagers feel like some of the best NFL picks to go with in week 12.

The Chargers and Bills both have talented defenses. The problem is they’re not really playing up to their ability. To make matters worse, both offenses featured in that game are explosive, so I’m not seeing many paths to the Under.

Dallas is tough to trust, but they’re hosting a game on a short week, and they win the talent battle. If they’re ever going to feel galvanized and get something going, this is the beginning of it.

Lastly, the Saints and Broncos just feels like an ugly game. It’s outside, the Saints are on the road, Denver’s defense can be problematic, and the Saints have been lights out in that regard.

I like Taysom Hill this week for daily fantasy football, but this is otherwise a spot to avoid for DFS.

If you’re with me on these wagers, find your favorite sportsbook and place a bet. If you’re holding out for a better angle, consider hitting up our sports betting blog for other ways to make cash via sports betting.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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