This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Week 11, 2020

| November 16, 2020 8:48 am PDT

There’s no such thing as a guarantee with NFL betting (or any betting), but there are always some bets that feel safer than others.

I handed out some of my safest NFL picks last week, and one ended up paying off. The Philadelphia Eagles couldn’t beat the New York Giants, and a would-be shootout between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams was a total snoozer.

At least the Jacksonville Jaguars came to play in week 10, as they beat a thick 14-point spread and nearly staged the improbable upset in Green Bay.

I don’t like a 1-2 record on the week, but I will take a win any way I can get it. Hopefully my week 11 NFL locks are a bit more stable. Let’s see which NFL picks I love this week, using the early week 11 NFL odds as a pricing reference.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Over 57 (-115)

Week 11 in the NFL gets started off with a bang, as Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson face-off with first place in the NFC West on the line.

Seattle has to stop the bleeding after losing two in a row, while handing a season sweep to the Arizona Cardinals may be a death sentence in their plight to win the division.

It won’t be easy, as these two teams are presently in a three-way tie with the Rams.

There is a lot on the line here, and both sides have plenty to play for. The Seahawks may come out with a bit more urgency, but their defense has done them zero favors on the year.

It only takes one look back to the first meeting between these two sides (a 37-34 OT win by Arizona), to be reminded of what we’re bracing for on Thursday Night Football.

Even if we don’t get overtime or a combined 71 points, this is going to be a tense, high-scoring battle. The Over looks like one of the best week 11 NFL locks to target online.

Miami Dolphins to Win (-155)

I’m also fully on board with this Miami team. Tua Tagovailoa appears to be the real deal, as the Dolphins are 3-0 under his watch, and have now ripped off five wins in a row.

I remember balking at the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to an inexperienced rookie, but it looks like the right call. Miami has a pretty dynamic offense, and one of the most ferocious defenses in all of football.

All of this is bad news for the Denver Broncos, who will play host, but are in a bad way at 3-6.

Denver has a young quarterback of their own in Drew Lock, but he’s been a turnover machine, and has been a big reason why they’ve lost so much in 2020. There is still potential with Lock, but after seeing Miami hold Justin Herbert in check last week, it’s tough to see him breaking through in week 11.

I like Miami’s offense to have their way with the Broncos, and Lock could be in for yet another forgettable performance. You can bet on Miami to cover a mild spread, but the value we’re getting in a probable win is too good to pass up.

Bengals vs. Washington Over 45 (-110)

The Washington Football Team has a pretty good defense up front, and they don’t have the most reliable offense. Needless to say, there is always going to be a concern in betting on game totals involving them.

This bet is more about the Cincinnati Bengals, as their offense is capable of putting up some numbers, while Washington flashed their ability in a 27-24 loss to the Lions last week.

The other thing is this just isn’t a very high total. I think we can get a mild shootout like what we saw between Washington and Detroit. Cincy will also be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing blowout loss at Heinz Field in week 10.

New York Jets (+9.5) -112

Lastly, believe it or not, but I count the Jets at +9.5 as one of the safest week 11 NFL picks. It’s a lock for me, just because the New York Jets are going to get close to a win eventually.

Before you get too horrified, let me explain.

We’ve already seen them flirt with it. They probably should have beaten the Broncos weeks ago, they fought the Buffalo Bills hard three games ago, and just last week they very nearly almost beat the New England Patriots.

They now had a bye week to lick their wounds, and while they’re staring at a lost season at 0-9, they still have their pride. 

They’ll give it all they have to take down the Bolts this week, while there is the undeniable reality of the Los Angeles Chargers blowing wins, collapsing when they shouldn’t, or simply playing down to the level of their competition.

I’m not necessarily saying this is where New York’s first win of 2020 comes. But the Chargers are also just 2-7. As fun as they’ve been offensively, this is still a team that has been allergic to putting teams away.

Starting with a three-point win over the Bengals in week one, this team has been in a remarkable eight one-score games. Don’t be too shocked if they make it nine in week 11.


There you have it, the above are my favorite week 11 NFL locks, and may very well be some of the safest NFL bets of the week.

Value and safety are in the eye of the beholder, though. And I’ll be the first to note the irony of the word “safety” being tossed so haphazardly in the same post where teams like the Jets and Bengals are featured.

Sometimes it’s not just about the team or their record, though. It can be about circumstances, matchups, timing, pricing, and so many other things.

Numerous variables lead to these being my favorite locks for the week. If you agree, feel free to check out the best NFL betting sites to place some bets this week.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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