This Week’s Safest NFL Bets – Championship Round, 2021

| January 18, 2021 10:04 am PDT

The 2021 NFL playoffs have not disappointed in terms of quality of play. They have fallen short in terms of scoring, of course.

That put a damper on my NFL locks last week, and the schedule shrinking to just two games going into the 2021 NFL Championship Round only complicates matters.

Usually, when seeking out the safest NFL bets to make, volume is your friend. Going into a tight round of play like this, there isn’t any wiggle room.

I already took a look at the early 2021 NFL Conference Championship Round odds, which should give you a good idea as to where I’m going with this week’s locks.

It also serves as a solid starting point and a good comparison for bettors who prefer to wait to place bets later in the week.

For those who want to bet on the 2021 NFL Championship Round now, I’ve got some picks I like for the week. Let’s see which bets stand out as safe options going into the AFC and NFC title games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) -115

I’ve had pretty terrible luck betting against the Green Bay Packers this year. They went 13-3 and won their first playoff game, so you can imagine picking teams to upset them hasn’t gone well.

Green Bay has also been a rock-solid 10-6 against the spread this year, so even dabbling in betting on teams to keep games closer than expected hasn’t gone as planned.

I think this is a spot where bettors can do that, though.

Tom Brady is one of the most accomplished quarterbacks ever. Nay, he’s the most accomplished quarterback in league history.

This weekend’s tilt happens to be his 14th Conference Championship game, after all.

With just two games left, I’m not really handing out NFL upset picks. But the Buccaneers have a chance to pay off as +165 underdogs over at BetOnline. And even if you’re not gunning for the straight-up win, they offer pretty good wiggle room as 4-point road dogs.

Brady’s dominance in the playoffs is obviously a big deal. Tampa Bay also crushed this Packers team (38-10) the last time they faced them. Oh, and the Buccaneers have gone an impressive 3-1 against the spread as underdogs.

Both of these teams are on a mission. Green Bay has an edge at home in the cold, and they also boast the league’s best offense. But this is Tom Brady and a stacked Bucs offense.

I love the Buccaneers to beat this spread in a tight game, and they’re absolutely in play as an underdog straight-up pick.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Over 51 (-105)

NFL playoff games have not been very explosive so far. There have been some really high totals, yet the actual results haven’t come close to where games are projected.

For this tense NFC title game, I think the points do come.

Enough of them, at least.

It will be pretty cold, and Green Bay showed a willingness to pound the rock last week. But the Packers still hung 32 points on a very good Rams defense. Tampa Bay has put up 30+ points in both of their playoff games thus far, as well.

These happen to be the #1 and #2 scoring offenses in the league, and the Over is 10-8 and 10-7 for both sides, respectively.

All of this has me leaning toward the Over, plus the fact that this is a fairly tame total, all things considered. Both teams saw their total hit 50 last week, and I think they can clear 51 this week.

Bills vs. Chiefs Under 54 (-110)

Oddly enough, I think the Under is the play in the AFC title game. For starters, both of these defenses are a bit better than advertised.

Both defenses are at their best against the pass, which could be a problem for bettors banking on this being a wild shootout.

Don’t get me wrong, in a game featuring the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (75 total passing touchdowns during the regular season), a 54 total isn’t exactly silly.

But the matchup isn’t as appealing as some might think. Neither of these teams likes to run the ball all that much, and their elite passing games could be interrupted in this matchup.

Let’s not ignore that the Chiefs have been rather underwhelming at times, too. The Over is just 8-9 in Kansas City games this year, while the most recent meeting between these teams offered a combined 43 points.


With just two games left on the schedule entering Conference Championship week, the amount of bets you can deem “safe” are remarkably limited.

I still love these wagers for the Championship Round, and they’re the first three bets I’d be targeting online.

Whether you like these bets or not, there is more to be had this week, from betting on the games themselves to taking a stab at some NFL player props. 

You can get all of that at our NFL picks page by clicking the link at the top of this page.

Once you’re ready to place some bets, be sure to hit up the best pro football sportsbooks.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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