Safest Bets for Super Bowl 2021

| February 4, 2021 9:16 am PDT

The ways to bet on Super Bowl 55 are endless. From the game itself to all the Super Bowl prop bets, you can pick and choose how to bet on the big game.

While the allure of high upside props and weird Super Bowl 55 props is certainly there, it may be wise to track down some safe wagers for Super Bowl Sunday.

Not sure what those might be? Don’t worry, I scoured the internet for some of the safest Super Bowl 2021 bets. Here are my favorite locks for Super Bowl 55.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Over 49.5 (-275)

I actually like the Over for the original game total just fine. This alternative game total is just, well, safer.

That’s the play here, to get a bet you like, but make it a little more reliable. You’re losing some value, to be sure, but this game also just needs to clear 50 total points rather than 56.

There is plenty of logic to fall in love with this one, seeing as the Over went 11-8 in Tampa Bay games this year and 9-9 in Kansas City games.

That may seem a little pedestrian, but it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers had the 8th best Over record in the league, and most Chiefs games had really high totals.

To gain a little more context, see how these teams fared in terms of scoring on the year.

Team Points Per Game Games Over 25 Points Games Over 50 Total Points
Buccaneers 30.7 14 13
Chiefs 29.6 13 11

If these teams just show up and hit their points per game average, this game total is blown to smithereens. In fact, you can attack the original total and bet on the Over with confidence, too.

Both teams consistently clear at least 25 points and they also have 11+ games where this 49.5 game total is safely cleared.

Like I said, the original game total (56 at most Super Bowl 55 betting apps) is absolutely on the table, and you’re getting that at a -105 to -120 price, depending on where you bet.

This bet is just considerably safer, and the price isn’t such a horrific drop-off that you wouldn’t want to consider it for that extra cushion.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) -225

I’ll target another alternative line as one of my safest bets for Super Bowl 55. I also like the Buccaneers at +3.5, but again, you’re getting the same bet for just a little less value.

To even things out, you can just ramp up the bet. But this is asking the Bucs to just keep this game within one touchdown, and that feels perfectly feasible.

There is a lot going on working in Tampa Bay’s favor concerning this bet.

For one, they only lost to the Kansas City Chiefs by three points earlier this year. Secondly, they’ve been amazing against the spread (4-1) as underdogs).

Super Bowl 55 is also played in their stadium, so they literally get to be the first home team at a Super Bowl – ever.

That’s insane, but the Bucs have also been remarkably good against the spread, in general, this year. Beyond excelling as the underdog, they’ve gone 11-8 ATS, and even in defeat, they’ve lost by more than a touchdown exactly twice on the year.

Kansas City is the rightful favorite, but the Bucs have been on fire in these playoffs (30+ points in every game), and they have the talent to give the Chiefs one heck of a fight.

Travis Kelce to Score a Touchdown (-164)

I could also tack on Mike Evans at +120, as I honestly think both of these guys are serious threats to score in Super Bowl 2021.

Evans has a tougher matchup by the numbers, however. Kelce’s isn’t a breeze, but after getting torched by Tyreek Hill earlier this year, it stands to reason that Tampa Bay would pay extra attention to him on Super Bowl Sunday.

That could allow for Kelce to somehow go overlooked. That sounds crazy, but the guy turned in an 8-82 line in the previous meeting against the Buccaneers, and that paled in comparison to what Hill accomplished.

Also, Kelce has been on a bit of a tear lately. Here’s what he’s done during a ridiculous six-game touchdown-scoring streak.

Opponent Targets Catches Yards Touchdowns
Bills 15 13 118 2
Browns 10 8 109 1
Falcons 13 7 98 1
Saints 12 8 68 1
Dolphins 10 8 136 1
Broncos 12 8 136 1

There are few certainties in life. The classics are death and taxes, but one could argue Travis Kelce scoring touchdowns should be thrown into the mix.

Predicting touchdowns isn’t an exact science, but Kelce is running hot, and it’s not like the Buccaneers (9 TDs allowed to tight ends) are elite against the position.

Given Kelce’s massive role, red-zone chops, and Tampa Bay likely focusing on stopping Hill a bit more, this feels like one of the best Super Bowl 55 player props out there.

Quarterback to Win Super Bowl 55 MVP (-350)

There are a lot of ways to bet on the 2021 Super Bowl. Not all of them are actually going to win you money.

With extra risk being taken on with some “out there” Super Bowl props, it may make sense to go a little harder at some of the safest Super Bowl 55 bets.

To wrap things up, I think one more NFL lock for Super Bowl 55 is a quarterback claiming the MVP trophy.

Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite (-115) at most Super Bowl betting sites, and I tend to agree with that.

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I have the Chiefs winning, after all.

Michael Wynn broke down the 2021 Super Bowl MVP odds recently, and the end result was that the award is most likely going to Mahomes or Tom Brady.

He leaned toward Brady in his post, but with the position dominating this award (30 wins, all-time, and 7 of the last 10), it simply makes sense.

The problem is that you need to also get the winning team right when you make that bet. Mahomes is a great bet, but what if the Chiefs lose?

The Super Bowl MVP has come from the losing team just once in history, and there’s nothing to suggest that ever happens again.

You can eliminate any doubt by just attacking this bet at -350. The odds aren’t as welcoming, but it feels like a rock-solid wager.


Super Bowl 55 is a great time to place some bets, and I encourage bettors to take a chance on some high upside wagers.

It’s the last NFL game of the year, after all, and there just isn’t a betting experience quite like this at any other point in the year.

That said, there is absolutely a place for safe Super Bowl 55 bets, and I think the above bets have a terrific chance at paying out.

So much goes into betting on the Super Bowl, though. If you’re new to the game or just want to know where to bet, get your process started with some Super Bowl 55 betting advice posts below.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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