Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny Betting Preview – UFC Fight Night, August 29, 2020

| August 25, 2020 6:47 am PDT

We’ve got a sweet UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic co-main to look forward to this Saturday in the form of Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny.

These former teammates will square off in the penultimate bout of the evening at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. It should be a really fun fight to watch, given the history between the pair and their respective standings in the promotion’s welterweight division.

I’ll be taking a closer look at the odds for Lawler vs. Magny today in an effort to find where the betting value is. Additionally, I’ll be laying out the best bets to place on the fight, as well as giving a final breakdown of what to expect before I close things out.

But true to form, I think it’s best to make my pick for Lawler vs. Magny first, and then work our way through the rest. So, when you’re ready, scroll down and we’ll get things going!

Lawler vs. Magny – Who Wins This Fight?

  • Robbie Lawler by KO/TKO

Although the end of Lawler’s illustrious career is drawing near, I think some folk already believe him to be fit for the scrapyard. Well, I don’t.

Sure, Lawler is far from the roaring force of nature he was in his pomp, but the guy still possesses some of the key attributes that made him who he was. And all it takes to snap a three-fight skid against Neil Magny is…

We’ll get into that later. First, let’s see how the line looks for Lawler vs. Magny this Saturday.

Latest Lawler vs. Magny Odds

  • Robbie Lawler to Win +195
  • Neil Magny to Win -250

Betting on Lawler to beat Magny? Well, the good news is that you can get odds of +195 for “Ruthless” to win this fight with MyBookie – one of the top sites for MMA betting.

I think there is great value in Lawler’s odds here. Sure, Magny is a solid all-round fighter, but he almost always flattered to deceive against fighters that can get inside his ridiculous 80″ reach and land big shots.

Lawler enters this bout as a plus money underdog for the fourth time in a row. He last opened as the favorite against Rafael dos Anjos in December 2017, which marked his final appearance inside the Octagon prior to a lengthy layoff.

Magny comes into this one as the favorite for the fourth time in five fights and will be hoping to extend his win streak to three for the first time since 2016.

I must admit, I’m not keen on the moneyline odds for the “Haitian Sensation.” And the last time I said that, he was knocked out by the underdog Santiago Ponzinibbio in November 2018.

Best Bets for Lawler vs. Magny

I’ve picked out three bets for Lawler vs. Magny that I think you should consider. If you haven’t already circled them with that old red pen, of course.

Check them out.

Robbie Lawler to Win

At odds of +195, it’s fairly obvious that Lawler is the value bet here. I’ve already pointed that out.

There may be punters that will be dissuaded by critics keen to point at Lawler’s poor run of form. But given that he dropped losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Colby Covington – and was unlucky to be stopped prematurely by referee Herb Dean against Ben Askren – you can’t be too hard on the MMA vet.

Does he have what it takes to beat Magny? I think he does. And that faith is much easier to live with when such a good price is on the table.

Robbie Lawler to Win by KO/TKO

Unfortunately, the props for UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic were not available at the time of writing. That means that I can’t share the odds with you today.

But what I will say is this – if Lawler’s odds to beat Magny are so attractive, his price to earn a KO/TKO will be even better.

Those same detractors might point out the fact that Lawler’s last stoppage came all the way back in 2015. Yeah, that’s right – in that crazy fight against Rory MacDonald on the undercard of Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes.

I have a funny feeling that could change this Saturday.

Neil Magny to Win by Decision

13 of Magny’s 20 wins have come by way of decision, and I can’t see him beating Lawler any other way than on the cards.

Magny keeps a high pace and has solid fundamentals, but he is by no means a specialist when it comes to power or submissions. He does the simple things well and has good cardio. If he can keep Lawler out of the pocket and pick at him, he might very well take the decision.

My Take On Why Lawler Beats Magny

Although Lawler is in the worst slump of his career – with four losses from his last five fights – he has been knocked out just twice in 16 years. The contentious submission loss at the hands of the now-retired Ben Askren was his first loss of that kind since Jacare Souza subbed him in back in 2011.

Prior to Herb Dean calling the fight off, Lawler was landing big shots and looked nailed on to finish Askren. All things considered; it was – up until the point when Askren locked in that bulldog choke – a promising first performance back inside the cage.

After Askren, Lawler took a fight with Colby Covington. A brave decision that kind of blew up in his face. He might have seen Colby’s layoff as an opportunity to catch him cold, but it did not go that way at all.

Covington’s wrestling is up there with the best in the business. Not only that, but his engine is unreal. Add in some much-improved striking, and you have a menace on your hands. A guy that is, at the very least, the second-best welterweight in the promotion right now.

But Magny is nowhere near as busy or as threatening as Covington. Yes, he will be able to cut Lawler off and will be looking to back him up against the fence and smother him, but it won’t be as electric.

If anything, Magny will approach this fight with more caution. And against a guy like Lawler – even at the tail end of his career – this could backfire.

Lawler Is Not Done Yet

At one time, Lawler was the most feared welterweight in MMA. He had that explosive power and natural toughness that forced many fighters to drop their game plan at the sight of one of his charging right hands.

Now, he is 38 and just one year away from a full twenty years as a professional fighter. That is major mileage. But isn’t it impressive that he is still going relatively strong?

Lawler’s chin is still there. He has proven that he can go five rounds. But to do the latter, he has had to give up a lot of his business inside the cage. He has had to adapt if you will.

Magny is one of the most underrated fighters when it comes to adaptability. He is a smart dude that looks to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses and can figure out game plans ad hoc. He will know what Lawler brings to the table – especially as a former training partner of “Ruthless” – but one thing I think he will be wary of is his power.

I don’t anticipate this fight being a walkover for Lawler. Or, if Magny wins, I don’t foresee it being the easiest fight of his life. But in Lawler, you have a guy that is better in fits and bursts against a dude that will be looking to drag the fight to the cards.

This is a short notice fight that could end up being a short one overall. Yes, Lawler is past his best, but power is the last thing to go. If Magny gets caught flush, it’s game set and match.

Lawler vs. Magny is more of a 50/50 fight than the bookies have it. And on account of the odds differential, I have to take Lawler here.

If I couldn’t make a convincing case for him winning, I’d probably give this one the wide berth. If you aren’t convinced that either man has a clear advantage, well, do what you gotta do.

Wrap Up Time

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic goes down on Saturday, August 29. Feel free to check out my betting preview for Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandr Rakic for the best odds and bets for that one.

It should be a good card. There are solid fights for us to look forward to, and I’m expecting it to deliver.

Naturally, I have one eye on next month’s major event headlined by a potential middleweight title classic in Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa. If you’re on the same page, be sure to check out my UFC 253 betting guide for the latest wagers and news on that.

I’ll leave things there for now. Enjoy the fights this Saturday!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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