Best Prop Bets and Specials for the 2021 AFL Grand Final

| September 22, 2021 9:11 am PDT

Looking for the top specials and props for the 2021 AFL Grand Final? If that sounds like you, then you’ve come to the right place.

The showpiece event of the footy calendar goes down this Saturday, September 25. Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs go head-to-head at Optus Stadium, with the final being staged outside Melbourne for only the second time in history.

Below, I have put together a series of exciting 2021 AFL Grand Final prop bets for you to go through – many of which offer excellent value. I cover my pick for the Norm Smith Medal, first goalscorer, disposals totals, and more.

Without further ado, let’s get stuck into the best AFL Grand Final props and specials for 2021.

Max Gawn to Win the Norm Smith Medal (8.00)

2021 has been an incredible year for Max Gawn, hasn’t it?

The giant ruckman has been at the heart of everything good about Melbourne this season – kicking crucial goals, notching tons of disposals, winning countless contested possessions, and doing just about everything else in between.

As the odds for the 2021 Norm Smith medal show, Gawn isn’t the bookies’ favorite to be crowned best on ground at Optus Stadium. But there are plenty of reasons to back him.

  • Christian Petracca (6.00)
  • Clayton Oliver (7.00)
  • Marcus Bontempelli (8.00)
  • Max Gawn (8.00)
  • Jack Macrae (11.00)
  • Bailey Smith (15.00)
  • Tom Liberatore (17.00)
  • Jack Viney (21.00)
  • Adam Treloar (23.00)
  • Christian Salem (23.00)

Melbourne midfielders Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are the frontrunners to scoop the prize, while Bulldogs captain Marcus Botemptelli is also in the mix. At 8.00, however, Gawn is my pick for the Norm Smith medal.

The 29-year-old produced an outstanding individual performance in the Demons’ preliminary-final thrashing of Geelong last time out, booting a career-best five goals in the 83-point rout. Along with his goals, he posted eye-catching stats in other departments, too.

Max Gawn’s Preliminary Final Performance By the Numbers
  • 5 goals
  • 33 hitouts
  • 12 contested possessions
  • 19 disposals

It is difficult to think of a more dominant prem-final display in AFL history. Gawn was absolutely everywhere – and I expect him to produce a similar kind of performance on Saturday.

Sure, Petracca and Oliver have grabbed the headlines throughout the campaign. But if Gawn can emulate his heroic display against Geelong, he will almost certainly get his hands on the famous medal.

First Goalscorer – Tom Liberatore (25.00)

The next of my 2021 AFL Grand Final specials concerns the first goalscorer. As you can see by the big price, this is also my longshot Grand Final bet.

Let’s check out the 2021 AFL Grand Final first goalscorer odds.

  • Bayley Fritsch (9.50)
  • Aaron Naughton (9.50)
  • Ben Brown (10.00)
  • Cody Weightman (12.00)
  • Tim English (14.00)
  • Tom McDonald (14.00)
  • Christian Petracca (15.00)
  • Marcus Bontemptelli (17.00)
  • Mitch Hannan (18.00)
  • Tom Liberatore (25.00)

With so many top-quality forwards on both sides, backing a midfielder to kick the first goal of the match might seem like a strange thing to do. But let me explain.

Liberatore has consistently chipped in with goals from midfield throughout the season, chalking up 14 overall. He has also upped his game during the finals, booting two goals in the semi-final victory over Brisbane.

On top of that, there is an important statistic to consider when it comes to betting on the 2021 AFL Grand Final first goalscorer: Liberatore has kicked the opening goal in three of his previous seven matches.

It seems as though the midfielder has developed a knack for opening the scoring. Plus, he has already played in a Grand Final – so he knows what it takes to get off to a strong start.

This market is stacked with attractive prices, but the huge odds for Liberatore stand out to me.

Most Goals – Bayley Fritsch (5.50)

Who will kick the most goals on Saturday? Here are the prices.

  • Ben Brown (5.00)
  • Aaron Naughton (5.50)
  • Bayley Fritsch (5.50)
  • Cody Weightman (9.00)
  • Tim English (12.00)
  • Tom McDonald (13.00)
  • Christian Petracca (14.00)
  • Kysaiah Picket (15.00)
  • Marcus Bontempelli (15.00)
  • Bailey Smith (23.00)

I’m not going to overcomplicate things here. I’m backing Bayley Fritsch to score the most goals in the 2021 AFL Grand Final, simply because he has been the most prolific player throughout the campaign.

TOP GOALKICKERS – MELBOURNE AND WESTERN BULLDOGS (2021)
Player Team Goals
Bayley Fritsch Melbourne 53
Josh Bruce Western Bulldogs 48
Aaron Naughton Western Bulldogs 46
Kysaiah Pickett Melbourne 40
Tom McDonald Melbourne 31

With Josh Bruce sidelined through injury, there is no denying that Fritsch will be the deadliest forward on the field this weekend.

The Melbourne gun only finished a handful of goals behind Harry McKay on the Coleman Medal leaderboard, underlining his ability. If he boots six goals on Saturday, he will even overtake McKay.

Marcus Bontempelli to Register 25+ Disposals (1.73)

If you’re looking for a safe Grand Final bet for 2021, look no further than this wager.

Jack Macrae (1.06), Clayton Oliver (1.08), and Christian Petracca (1.30) are the bookies’ favorites to clock up 25+ disposals at Optus Stadium. But if you look a little further down the list, you will find Marcus Bontempelli at 1.73.

Having notched 670 disposals in 25 games this year, Bontempelli is averaging 26.8 disposals per game in 2021.

It is also worth pointing out that the key Bulldog has registered 25+ disposals in 19 matches this season – and two of those matches were against the Demons.

Although Melbourne is the bookies’ favorite to win the Grand Final, I expect Bontempelli to rise to the occasion and lead by example. The 2021 Brownlow runner-up guided the Dogs to glory in 2016, so I can see him enjoying a big match this weekend.

Jack Macrae to Register 30+ Disposals (1.91)

Put simply, Macrae is the disposals king.

The 27-year-old is averaging a whopping 34.2 disposals per game this season, having chalked up 854 across the course of the campaign. You probably won’t be surprised to learn that he is in a league of his own atop the 2021 disposals charts.

MOST DISPOSALS (2021)
Player Disposals
Jack Macrae 854
Ollie Wines 777
Clayton Oliver 756
Tom Mitchell 754
Zach Merrett 725

Macrae has posted 30+ disposals in 23 of his 25 matches this year. Better still, he has achieved that feat on two occasions against Melbourne.

When you consider Macrae’s outrageous numbers, you would be foolish to bet against him recording 30+ disposals on the biggest stage of all.

More 2021 AFL Grand Final Prop Bets and Specials

Let’s take a quick look at a few more Grand Final props for 2021. Although I didn’t include these wagers among my best AFL Grand Final bets, I believe they are still worth taking advantage of.

  • Max Gawn Anytime Goalscorer (1.70)
  • Bayley Fritsch to Score 3+ Goals (3.40)
  • Bailey Dale to Register 20+ Disposals (1.50)
  • Christian Petracca to Register 25+ Disposals (1.55)
  • Under 150 Total Match Points (2.10)

Gawn to score anytime at 1.70 feels like a great bet, especially when considering his heroics in the previous round. I also fancy Fritsch to score at least three goals.

I expect Bailey Dale and Christian Petracca to be at the heart of the action on Saturday, so I’m backing them to register 20+ and 25+ disposals, respectively.

With so much at stake, I can see both sides approaching the match with caution. A low-scoring encounter is on the cards, so I expect under 150 total points.

That concludes my look at the best AFL Grand Final prop bets and specials. Check out my 2021 AFL Grand Final betting preview for further advice.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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