Premier League Boxing Day Predictions and Top Betting Tips (Sunday, December 26)

| December 20, 2021 1:14 pm PDT

The Premier League officials confirmed on Monday that Round 19 will go through as planned despite COVID-19 concerns. The round in question is the one scheduled for Boxing Day.

There are nine games on the program on Sunday, December 26, meaning that there are plenty of betting options before you. To help you out with your Christmas betting adventure, I will now preview a couple of games and share my predictions with you.

The Boxing Day games I’ll focus on are the following:

  • Liverpool vs. Leeds
  • Manchester City vs. Leicester City
  • Aston Villa vs. Chelsea

What about the remaining six games, you might ask? I will reveal my picks for those games as well. I’ll even show you what I think are the best bets for the Boxing Day action.

Liverpool to Beat Leeds

It would be a real Christmas miracle if Leeds managed to get some points from the trip to Anfield. The thing is that Liverpool is simply a much, much better team.

Evidence of this is that Liverpool is flying high in the Premier League. With 41 points, the Reds are in the #2 position, with just three points behind Manchester City. That gap could’ve been smaller if they didn’t play a 2-2 draw with the Spurs in the previous round.

Liverpool drew with Tottenham in London, which would be seen as a pretty decent success a few years ago. However, in 2021-22, Liverpool players have gotten us used to brilliant performances.

Before the draw with Tottenham, Liverpool won eight games in a row. Actually, the Reds have been superb throughout the season, especially in the offense. This team has scored at least a goal in each of the previous 33 games.

Most of those goals were the work of Mohamed Salah, who was recently voted “Fans’ Footballer of the Year” with 61% of the vote.

It’s very possible he’ll score again on Boxing Day. After all, the guy already has 15 Premier League goals to his name in the 2021-22 season, which is the best in the league.

If not Salah, someone else surely will. The thing is that the Reds are playing on their turf against a team that’s been having serious defensive problems in the past couple of weeks.

Leeds is coming to Liverpool after three straight losses, in which they conceded a total of 14 goals. That’s 4.33 goals conceded per game on average.

To be fair to Marcelo Bielsa’s team, Leeds did play some really tough opponents in those three games – Chelsea, Manchester City, and Arsenal.

The bad news for Leeds is that all those teams have scored fewer goals than Liverpool. What this means is that another, perhaps even worse blowout loss might be on the way.

Manchester City to Beat Leicester City

Pep Guardiola’s team has all wins in the Premier League since the beginning of November. Thanks to their superb run, they’re now at the top of the table.

Man City’s strongest weapon is their long bench. This team seems to have at least two amazing players for each position on the pitch. This allows Guardiola to rotate the squad without sacrificing the quality of the starting XI.

And he’s has been rotating the squad lately. After the 7-0 demolition job against Leeds last Tuesday, Guardiola made a few notable changes. Jack Grealish and Phil Foden, both of whom scored against Leeds, saw no action in the game against Newcastle on Sunday.

According to the manager himself, he did it because of something that happened off the pitch. With the contagious COVID-19 variant Omicron wreaking havoc on teams around England, Guardiola wanted to remind all of his players to stay focused on their job.

“At Christmas time I pay a lot of attention to behavior on and off the pitch. And when off the pitch is not proper, they are not going to play,” Guardiola told BBC

His words suggest that Grealish and Foden have been reckless in their spare time. Luckily for them, they didn’t catch the novel virus, and neither did anyone from the Man City squad. In fact, this team is one of only a few Premier League teams that haven’t reported any COVID-19 positives last week.

Leicester City, on the other hand, has been going through a real crisis caused by a coronavirus outbreak in their squad. Last week, seven of their first-team players tested positive, for which the clash with Tottenham had to be postponed.

The good news is that some of those players could return by Boxing Day. Unfortunately, in addition to those players fighting the coronavirus, Leicester City also has some who are struggling with injuries.

Some of those players include two of Leicester’s center backs, Jonny Evans and Caglar Soyuncu.

Chelsea to Beat Aston Villa

A few weeks ago, Chelsea was at the very summit of the Premier League table. However, when December came, the Blues’ performances started to drop. They won only one of their previous four Premier League games, losing one and drawing two.

Chelsea’s most recent game was the one against Wolves on Sunday which finished in a 0-0 draw. Not bragging, but I did predict a low-scoring game that’s most likely to finish in a draw. It was pretty obvious because Chelsea was without any proper strikers in that game.

Romelu Lukaku, Timo Werner, and Kai Havertz all tested positive for COVID-19, together with several other players. Chelsea’s boss Thomas Tuchel wanted to postpone the game, but the Premier League refused.

As a result, Chelsea failed to grab the much-needed three points from the trip to Wolverhampton. Because of that, the Blues are now six points behind the Citizens in the Premier League standings.

Everyone at Chelsea wants to get back in the title race ASAP and for that, they need to start winning again. Beating Aston Villa on Boxing Day is not going to be easy as Lukaku and Co. probably aren’t going to return in time.

Still, this is a must-win game for Chelsea, so they’ll have to figure out how to get all three points. Luckily for them, they got Tuchel to think about it, a man who’s, without any doubt, one of the best soccer managers in the world.

I believe in Tuchel and his boys, but I don’t think they’re going to destroy Aston Villa on Sunday. Instead, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Chelsea seems like the most likely outcome.

Picks for the Other Six Premier League Boxing Day Matches

  • Wolves to Beat Watford
  • Burnley and Everton to Draw
  • Arsenal to Beat Norwich
  • Tottenham and Crystal Palace to Draw
  • West Ham to Beat Southampton
  • Brighton and Brentford to Draw

The reason why I didn’t preview these six in detail is that they all seem very hard to predict. I can sense surprises happening in at least some of those matches. Underdogs might not necessarily win but we could see a couple of games finishing in a draw.

My Top Boxing Day Bets

Mohamed Salah to Score Anytime1.40
Manchester City (-1) Against Leicester City1.60
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea – Under 2.5 Goals1.85

All these bets are available at Betway, which is the sportsbook whose odds I used. Speaking of the odds, they all look pretty awesome in my opinion, especially because I believe all three bets will win easily.

First of all, I believe Salah will score again. After all, he scored at least a goal in eight of Liverpool’s previous ten games. I’m also confident Manchester City will continue its dominance in the Prem with another convincing win. Finally, I think we’ll see a low-scoring affair in the Aston Villa vs. Chelsea game.

Zarko Naric

Zarko Naric – the World's Greatest Sportswriter, according to his grandma.

Zarko started writing for in 2019, covering sports like soccer, tennis, and basketball,  as well as some more niche sports like cycling, for example.

In addition to writing news, picks, and blog pieces focused on sports, Zarko’s also been covering politics, TV/music contests, and so on.

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