Predictions for Sports Climbing at the Tokyo Olympics

| July 29, 2021 5:37 am PDT

Sports climbing is one of the new sports on the Olympic schedule, and it will be interesting to see what happens in Tokyo. The bookmakers have clear favorites for both men’s and women’s events, but you never know.

I explore the latest odds for both competitions and share more information about the main contenders. I’ve also added my best bet for Olympic sports climbing for those who plan to take a shot at the events.

Olympic Sports Climbing Format

Before I proceed to my Tokyo sports climbing analysis, let me explain the format. It’s the same for both the men’s and the women’s events.

The competition features the following three disciplines.

  • Speed – Two climbers face each other and try to climb a 15 m wall as fast as possible.
  • Bouldering – The contestants go through fixed routes on a 4.5 m wall and try to cover as many as possible in a fixed timeframe.
  • Lead – Each climber has the same amount of time to climb as high as possible on a 15 m wall.

All contestants participate in each discipline, and the final standings are based on the best average ranking. It’s safe to say that winning a medal requires complex skills in terms of both planning routes and execution.

With that in mind, let’s move on to the two events and try to figure out which contestants have the highest chance to win.

Men’s Sports Climbing Betting Odds and Prediction

Tomoa Narasaki+140
Adam Ondra+200
Jakob Schubert+320
Kai Harada+1000
Jan Hojer+1600

There are 15 more climbers on the list of contestants, but their chances of winning this one are very slim. That’s why I decide to only focus on the Tokyo 2020 sports climbing favorites.

Homeboy Tomoa Narasaki is the one to beat here. He won the 2019 combined World Championship, and he’s dominated the biggest bouldering events since 2016.

The bookies believe that Adam Ondra is the biggest threat to the Japanese, but I have a different opinion. Jakob Schubert has been great in the past few years, winning both combined competitions and his favorite lead events.

I believe that it’s between the Austrian and Narasaki for the gold. Ondra should be able to finish third, while the rest of the field simply is not on the same level.

The +320 price for Schubert is way too high, if you ask me, so that’s arguably the best Olympic sports climbing betting pick out there.

Women’s Sports Climbing Betting Odds and Prediction

Janja Garnbret-330
Akiyo Noguchi+500
Shauna Coxsey+1000
Jessica Pilz+1200
Miho Nonaka+1400

The big question when predicting the women’s Olympic sports climbing competition is whether someone could stop Janja Garnbret. The Slovenian superstar has been phenomenal in the past few years, winning three titles from the 2019 World Championship.

She’s arguably the most complex climber in Tokyo 2020, and I don’t think anyone has a chance. Garnbret has no weak spots, so I expect a gold medal for the favorite.

Two or three years ago, I would probably expect a strong challenge from Akiyo Noguchi, but I don’t think that the Japanese veteran can compete with the favorite right now. The odds for Garnbret are too low for me, so I won’t be betting on her. I wouldn’t try to put anyone off doing so, though.

If you want more help for the upcoming events, you might want to take a look at our guide to betting on extreme sports at the Olympics. It features plenty of useful tips that can be applied to different disciplines.

Jerry Summer
Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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