Predictions and Betting Picks for the 2022 US Open
The 2021-22 PGA Tour season has reached the third major. The Country Club in Brookline, MA will host the US Open for the first time since 1988. It’ll be the second major golf event in the 21st century.
Rory McIlroy opens as the favorite after winning the RBC Canadian Open. McIlroy hasn’t won a major since 2014 but finished second in the Masters. Will he be one of your US Open picks?
My US Open prediction features a pair of top picks and two sleepers.
Best US Open Betting Picks
My top picks for the RBC Canadian Open had an excellent week, with Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry finishing top 10. The US Open odds have a few players among the top contenders.
Jon Rahm (+1600)
Honestly, Jon Rahm hasn’t looked great this season. He scored a victory in the Mexico Open, but that’s the only time in his last seven tournaments he finished better than ninth. Still, there’s no way my golf picks wouldn’t include Rahm for the US Open.
Last year, Rahm held the unofficial title of best active player to never win a major. He checked that off the list with a clutch performance at Torrey Pines. Check out his final round performance.
- Five Birdies
- One Bogey
He entered the final round with a three-shot deficit but quickly made up ground. Rahm hit a pair of 15+ foot birdie putts on the final two holes to win the 2021 US Open.
Rahm was a non-factor in his first three US Open starts, but he turned the corner with a third-place finish in 2019. Can he recapture his 2021 form? The US Open betting odds have faith in back-to-back victories.
He hasn’t been on his A-game lately, but it’s only a matter of time before he turns it around. It could happen at The Country Club.
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Xander Schauffele has had a consistent season. He scored a victory in the Zurich Classic, but that was a team event. He has six top 15 finishes in his last nine starts, but did you know his last individual PGA Tour victory was the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions?
Schauffele may have the title of best active player without a major championship. We’ve seen him in contention at Augusta National, but the US Open is his best major.
Here are his finishes in five career starts.
- 2017: -10 (5th)
- 2018: +6 (6th)
- 2019: -7 (3rd)
- 2020: +4 (5th)
- 2021: -1 (7th)
Those aren’t exclusive to the last five years. That’s every start in Schauffele’s US open career. How can the US Open picks not include someone with five straight finishes of seventh or better?
Schauffele has never won a major, but he knows how to win big tournaments. He won the Gold Medal for the USA in the 2020 Summer Olympics. A US Open victory would be his biggest accomplishment on American soil.
Can he finish the job at The Country Club?
Value Picks for the US Open
Unfortunately, neither of my sleepers were in contention in the RBC Canadian Open. Let’s see who makes my value selections among my free US Open picks.
Louis Oosthuizen (+6600)
Lately, the talk surrounding golf has been about the PGA Tour and LIV Golf League. We’ve talked about the betting impact on the PGA Tour. Players playing in the LIV Golf League won’t be eligible to play on the PGA Tour.
Louis Oosthuizen is one of those players, but he’ll be eligible for majors. Oosthuizen has played through injuries, only scoring two top 20 finishes in nine PGA Tour starts.
However, we could see him shine in return to the US Open. Overall, it has been his best major tournament.
- 2011: -4 (9th)
- 2015: -4 (2nd)
- 2019: -6 (7th)
- 2020: +2 (3rd)
- 2021: -5 (2nd)
It’s amazing Oosthuizen only has one major victory because he has been in contention many times. He held a one-shot lead on the 71st hole last year but bogeyed the 17th hole. He birdied the 18th hole, leaving him one shot behind Jon Rahm.
My golf predictions are taking a risk with Oosthuizen, but his US Open success gives me confidence. Hopefully, his involvement in the LIV Golf League won’t be a distraction.
Harris English (+20000)
We haven’t seen much of Harris English on the PGA Tour in the 2021-22 season. English only has seven starts, scoring one top 25 finish. He recently returned from hip surgery, missing the cut in the Memorial Tournament.
The time off likely has the top golf betting sites discrediting English, but I view this as a great opportunity to find value.
English has never been a significant factor in majors, scoring two top 10 finishes in 21 starts. Where did we see those top 10 finishes? Check out his performance in the last two US Opens.
|First Round||68 (-2)||72 (+1)|
|Second Round||70 (E)||70 (-1)|
|Third Round||72 (+2)||71 (E)|
|Fourth Round||73 (+3)||68 (-3)|
The scores might not look great, but it doesn’t take a low score to have a great finish. English finished fourth in 2020 and third in 2021. Do you see why my top US Open picks have English at (+20000)?
This won’t be his first tournament after a four-month layoff, so we shouldn’t see much rust. A week of rest should help him contend.
2022 US Open: Best Props
Unfortunately, my props went 0-2 in the RBC Canadian Open. We’ll have more betting opportunities for a major, so let’s see what my favorite US Open props bets have to offer.
3 Chances: Rory McIlroy/Justin Thomas/Brooks Koepka (+450)
My golf picks for the US Open could feature Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, or Brooks Koepka winning the 2022 US Open. Why not have a prop bet that hits if any player wins the tournament?
McIlroy and Thomas have been on fire this season. McIlroy has finished eighth or better in four of his last five starts. Thomas has accomplished that feat in four of his last six starts, including winning the PGA Championship.
Koepka’s US Open resume speaks for itself.
- 2014: +1 (4th)
- 2017: -16 (1st)
- 2018: +1 (1st)
- 2019: -10 (2nd)
- 2021: -2 (4th)
He didn’t play in the 2020 US Open, so his last finish worse than fourth was the 2016 event. Thomas has a pair of top 10 finishes in the event, while McIlroy had a legendary performance in his 2011 victory.
Daniel Berger to Finish Top 10 (+350)
Daniel Berger has been consistent throughout the 2021-22 season. He has four finishes of seventh or better and has only missed the cut in two of his 11 starts. Could he score his first victory of the season in the US Open?
He only has four top 10 finishes in 24 majors, but two came in the US Open.
- 2018: +6 (6th)
- 2021: -1 (7th)
Berger has been in contention, but we haven’t seen him take the next step. That’s likely why the US Open odds don’t have him as a top contender. However, we still find value with his odds of finishing top 10.
We’ve seen him accomplish that feat multiple times this season. Berger finished fifth in his last start at the Memorial Tournament. Can he keep it going at The Country Club?
Dustin Johnson to Finish Top 20 (EVEN)
Dustin Johnson has been in the news recently, but it’s not a product of his golf play. He was perhaps the most significant player to resign from the PGA Tour to play on the LIV Golf Tour.
Johnson played in last week’s event, but he’ll return for the 2022 US Open. My golf predictions aren’t holding that against him, as we’ve seen him contend for multiple US Open titles.
- 14 starts
- 1 win
- 4 top-five finishes
- 6 top 10 finishes
From 2014 to 2020, Johnson finished sixth or better in five of his seven US Open starts. That includes his victory in the 2016 event.
Johnson could compete for the victory, but the distraction surrounding the LIV Golf League gives me pause. We can still find value with him finishing top 20. I don’t believe that’ll be an issue.
Predicting Who Wins the 2022 US Open
We’ll see many players gunning for the win in one of the season’s biggest tournaments. I have a few top contenders for my US Open picks, but Xander Schauffele stands above all.
Schauffele has been competitive throughout the season, but we’re waiting for his first individual victory. Do I need to remind you he hasn’t finished worse than seventh in his US Open career? My US Open prediction believes that streak will continue.
USA and NBC will have coverage of the US Open. As we wait for the 2022 US Open, why not look back at the greatest performances in US Open history.