Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa Predictions and Best Bets (February 12)

| February 8, 2022 11:50 am PDT

A potential heavyweight classic between Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa serves as the co-main event for UFC 271 this Saturday, February 12.

Fans expecting fireworks in this matchup have every reason in the world to be optimistic. Lewis is coming off a first-round knockout of Chris Daukaus to make it 21 KOs from 26 wins inside the cage. Having fallen to Ciryl Gane in Houston last August, this is a chance for “The Black Beast” to repay his loyal home state fans.

The UFC 271 betting line for Lewis vs. Tuivasa has the American as the favorite. But the indications from the bookies are that they do not expect this to be a walkover. Especially as Australia’s Tuivasa is on a four-fight win with all victories ending inside the distance. 

More on that after I reveal the odds, predictions, and betting picks for Lewis vs. Tuivasa at UFC 271.

Predictions for Lewis vs. Tuivasa 

  • Projected Winner: Derrick Lewis
  • Method of Victory: KO/TKO
  • Round: 1

Although few things should shock us in the fight game, I can’t see many predictions for Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa ending in a decision win for either man. 

Regardless, my pick for the Lewis vs. Tuivasa fight, first and foremost, is a win for The Black Beast. He’s the more experienced of the two, has the better resume, and is a two-time UFC heavyweight title challenger. 

Tuivasa has been bouncing heads off the canvas like a boss. But I have doubts over his ability to catch Lewis out. I’m not saying it can’t be done, but all roads lead back to Texas, for me.

In other words, expect the home-state hero to be the one to have the power advantage here. 

Analyzing the Lewis vs. Tuivasa Odds

  • Derrick Lewis to Win -185
  • Tai Tuivasa to Win +155

I’ve taken the odds above from the MyBookie sportsbook, who have Lewis as a -185 favorite to win at UFC 271. 

Lewis’ odds to beat Tuivasa are beginning to creep closer toward the American, and I expect this trend to continue as we approach Saturday’s fight. My educated guess is that we will see Lewis close as deep as -220, which means it could be worth jumping on his moneyline price right now. 

If you’re backing Tuivasa, it might be a better idea to allow those Lewis wagers to push his odds up a tad. 

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility to see “Shoeyvasa” pop the +200 mark with some of the top betting apps for MMA fights. Right now, I’d hold off on backing the Aussie, if that’s the way you are going in this fight. 

For me, it’s all about the favorite this weekend. So, let’s carve into the top betting picks for Lewis vs. Tuivasa to see if there’s anything juicier than the moneyline on offer.

What are the Best UFC 271 Bets for Lewis vs. Tuivasa?

Alongside the moneyline odds for Lewis vs. Tuivasa, you should really be checking out the UFC 271 props markets.

  • Derrick Lewis to Win -185
  • Derrick Lewis to Win by KO/TKO -120
  • Derrick Lewis to Win in Round 1 +155

The top bet for Lewis vs. Tuivasa is Lewis for the win. At the same time, I just cannot envisage this fight going the distance. That makes The Black Beast by KO/TKO a solid prospect at these odds.

Don’t get me wrong — if Francis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis can go the distance, so can this fight. And the longer this one goes on, the better chance Lewis has of tiring Tuivasa out. So, I wouldn’t hate anyone for taking the moneyline.

Although it’s a slight risk, betting on the Lewis vs. Tuivasa fight ending in a first-round win for the American does come in at appealing odds. On the balance of things, this is definitely going to be a wager for UFC 271 that will have you sweating, especially if both men start off slow. 

Still, I don’t think that will be the case.

Why Lewis Will Beat Tuivasa by KO/TKO

There are fewer heavyweights in the world as dangerous as the Texan. 

21 men have tried to step into this man’s range and had to deal with the consequence of waking up on their back, wondering what happened. Come Saturday, that will be something fresh in the mind of Tai Tuivasa, but it doesn’t mean that will save him from being stopped.

Game plans, like plans in general, are made to be broken. It’s a tough ask walking into the cage with this dude, never mind in front of his home crowd. Especially when his heart was broken following that loss to Gane last year. This is his opportunity to get things right. 

Of course, you can’t compare Gane and Tuivasa. One is a pure technician, with fleet feet and a satellite fight IQ. The Aussie is no dope, of course, and has the power to end this fight. But with that said, the pressure of being planted in the heart of the Lone Star State, against the main man, could be the decisive factor in this bout.

I just cannot see Lewis dropping this fight. As good as Tuivasa is, it feels as though he’s as close to a made-to-order opponent for the popular heavyweight. An early knockout for Derrick is the way to go.

More UFC 271 Fights to Bet On

Although the talk heading into this weekend is dominated by the Rams and the Bengals, there is a huge fight card going down Houston.

You can find some hints and tips for the Big Game on our Super Bowl betting blog. Let’s not pretend that one of the biggest events in world sports isn’t going to overshadow the fights.

However, I’m also conscious that there are bettors who will exclusively be focusing on making money from the fights. If that’s you, check out the following pieces for odds, predictions, and picks for Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2.

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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