Predictions and Best Bets for Vergil Ortiz vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas – August 14, 2021

| August 12, 2021 6:55 am PDT

It’s fight week, which means it’s time to talk betting on Vergil Ortiz vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas.

This welterweight clash goes down this Saturday, August 14, at the Ford Center at The Star, in Frisco, Texas. Highly-touted prospect Ortiz puts his WBO International welterweight title on the line against the tough Kavaliauskas, and it should make for an explosive fight.

This preview contains betting tips for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas, as well as a breakdown of the contest. If you’re looking to get a better idea of who to wager on, I’ll explain how both men size up and where the smart money should go.

But before we get to the odds for Saturday’s boxing spectacular in Texas, let’s get my predictions down in stone.

Predictions for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas

  • Predicted Winner: Vergil Ortiz Jr.
  • Method of Victory: KO/TKO

My Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas predictions has the former taking the win by way of stoppage.

Following Canelo Alvarez’s acrimonious departure from Golden Boy Promotions in late 2020, Oscar De La Hoya was quick to tout the hard-hitting youngster as the prime stud of his stable.

This will be Ortiz’s toughest test to date. But I believe he can up his record to 18-0 and maintain his 100% stoppage ratio, despite Kavaliauskas being a tricky customer.

More on that later. Let’s first tend to the odds for the fight.

Odds for Vergil Ortiz vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas

Vergil Ortiz Jr. to Win-450
Egidijus Kavaliauskas to Win+325

Betting on Ortiz’s odds to beat Kavaliauskas on the moneyline? I’d recommend looking at other options.

I clearly like the American in this fight but believe there is a better chance of making money in the prop markets. In the next section, I’ll be sharing some of my best bets for Ortiz-Kavaliauskas, so stick with me for those.

All I have to say on the favorite’s moneyline price is that it’s not really a viable option for anyone looking to make money on this one.

The odds for Kavaliauskas to beat Ortiz might make some boxing bettors stop in their tracks.

The Lithuanian boasts a record of 22-1-1 (18 KOs), with the only loss of his career coming at the hands of unbeaten great Terence Crawford in 2019. It took the consensus pound-for-pound #3 nine rounds to dispatch Kavaliauskas, and that should prove that he is a tough cookie.

Top Bets for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas

Ortiz to Win by KO/TKOTBC
Ortiz to Win in Rounds 9-12TBC

Although prop bets for this fight have not yet opened, it’s worth sharing my top betting tips for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas for when they are available.

First, I’m not mega keen on Ortiz to win at -450. I do believe you will find a better price if you look for Vergil Ortiz’s odds to win by knockout, however. I can’t confirm those odds, so be sure to size them up when you get them.

Ortiz has seventeen consecutive stoppages in his professional career thus far. Thus, Kavaliauskas will have a tough time dealing with this powerful American. I just can’t see him making it to the final bell.

I’d be surprised if the European doesn’t pose more problems for his opponent than his odds suggest. He made it to the final quarter of his bout with Crawford in December 2019, and he should have the grit to keep the fight going until the final three rounds on Saturday.

Ortiz by KO/TKO in Rounds 9-12 is worth a gamble.

Betting Breakdown of Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas

I’m expecting a tough bout in Texas on August 14, but one that should favor the home-state hero.

The crowd will make a difference on the night. But my prediction for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas ending by KO/TKO is majorly influenced by just how powerful the 23-year-old is.

Although a completely different fighter to Terence Crawford, he does like to periodically break his opponents down, and we will see that in full flow this weekend.

Even with the pop he has, Ortiz is unlikely to land a knockout of the year against his man. Kavaliauskas’ durability is one of his key strengths as a fighter. But let’s not forget that he can also bang, with a 6th round stoppage of David Avanesyan, an impressive win on his resume.

To stand and trade with Ortiz would be just about the dumbest thing he can do. Kavaliauskas is not that naïve, so expect him to be very judicious when it comes to what he throws and when. If not, he runs the risk of leaving himself open to the devastating bodywork of the American.

The Lithuanian might enjoy some early success, but Ortiz’s work on the inside should lead to him fading in the later rounds.

If I were forced to make a betting pick for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas involving the specific round, I’d go for the 10th. But the smart bet would be to take the stoppage, or if you’re aiming higher, to go for the KO/TKO in Rounds 9 to 12.

Gambling on the Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas Fight

The prediction for Ortiz vs. Kavaliauskas is the American by KO/TKO in the later rounds.

If you’re looking to bet on the fight, you can get your wagers down on the top boxing sportsbooks online.

I’d suggest holding off until the boxing prop markets are open for this one. Although they were not available at the time of writing, it’s worth checking for updates regularly.

For more boxing bouts to bet on this month, check out the following piece.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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