Predictions and Best Bets for All Bouts at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

| November 24, 2020 10:37 am PDT

This Saturday sees UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis, also known as UFC Vegas 15, go down at the APEX in Sin City.

Just one week after UFC 255, it’s no surprise that the card feels a little lightweight. It looks a little lightweight, too, but that doesn’t mean it’s a lost cause. In fact, it’s far from it.

If you’re betting on the UFC this weekend, you’ll be pleased to know that there are more than a few you could make some money on. The most fun of them will be, of course, the main event between heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis.

I’m going to make all my predictions for UFC Vegas 15 first. Then, I’ll list the top bets for Blaydes vs. Lewis as well as picks from across the card. And why not give you long odds bettors something to think about with my UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis sleepers, too?

All good? Great. Let’s begin with those predictions.

Blaydes to Beat Lewis by KO/TKO

Curtis Blaydes is probably the best heavyweight in the UFC not to get a single shot at the title.

But that could all change if he can get past the threat of Derrick Lewis in Saturday’s main event of the evening. A win for Blaydes would put him in contention to fight the winner of Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou at some point in 2021.

It goes without saying that Blaydes will not be underestimating Lewis. Looking past any top-five heavyweight is a surefire way to get yourself into trouble, and a guy as professional and as smart as “Razor” is unlikely to fall into that trap.

I expect Blaydes to have too much for “The Black Beast” on the night. Not only will his wrestling drain his opponent’s gas tank, but it will present numerous opportunities for the 29-year-old to beat Lewis up on the ground.

As I explain in my Blaydes vs. Lewis betting preview, I can’t see the latter coming out of this fight with the win. Blaydes’ wrestling and conditioning will be too much.

My prediction is a third-round KO/TKO for Blaydes.

Parisian to Beat Porter by KO/TKO

Josh Parisian’s TKO win over Chad Johnson in August earns him his promotional debut. In the co-main, of all slots.

Just how Parisian will respond under the bright lights and cameras of the UFC APEX will be anyone’s guess, but you’d have to think that his two runs on the Contender Series, as well as an unsuccessful appearance on TUF, might help.

Another thing that might help is the fact that Porter, well, isn’t the most refined heavyweight on the planet. The former light heavyweight, who lost to Jon Jones on the regional circuit in 2008, will find it difficult to live with Parisian and is unlikely to make it out of the first round.

Ostovich to Beat Mazany by Decision

Look. We know this won’t be the most technical of fights. We also know that it’s probably not going to be a brutal slugfest.

But hey, the UFC has decided to put Gina Mazany and Rachel Ostovich in the slot under the co-main. And I guess that’s just the way it is. Sure, some of you will just be happy to see Ostovich back in the cage, so it’s not all that bad.

As for the fight, well, these two are coming in with UFC records of 1-4 and 1-2, respectively. Both ladies could do with a win here, but unfortunately, only one can emerge with the “W.”

I’ll take Ostovich by way of a super boring decision.

Baeza to Beat Sato by Decision

Miguel Baeza is aiming to improve on his UFC record of 2-0 but will be up against it when he faces Takashi Sato this Saturday night.

Baeza vs. Sato should be a good exchange, and I am expecting both men to come into this one fully prepared and ready to go. But the experience advantage certainly goes to Japan’s Sato, who comes in with a pro record of 16-3.

A serious striker, Baeza is also a BJJ black belt, making him a real threat on the floor, too. Given that two of Sato’s three losses have come by way of submission, the Brazilian might fancy his chances of earning the first of his career against the Japanese welterweight.

I do, too.

Smith to Beat Clark by KO/TKO

It’s been a rough year so far for Anthony Smith.

Having climbed the summit of the UFC’s light heavyweight division in 2019, culminating in a shot at then-champion Jon Jones, big things were expected following his loss to 205’s greatest fighter.

Smith got back to winning ways with a sweet submission win over Alexander Gustaffson in June 2019 but was brutally battered by Glover Teixeira in May before dropping a decision to Aleksandar Rakic in August.

Devin Clark is not on the same level as those previous opponents but can make it a tough night for Smith. However, I’m not expecting Clark to live with Smith on the feet, hence why I am picking “Lionheart” to earn a KO/TKO victory.

I believe it will happen in the second round.

Evans-Smith to Beat Viana by Decision

Following a quick knockout loss to Megan Anderson in her UFC debut, Norma Dumont Viana is hoping that things click in her first outing in the UFC’s bantamweight division.

Ashlee Evans-Smith will have other ideas, however.

Evans-Smith is a solid fighter with good fundamentals. She does all the basic things right, which is more than can be said for her opponent. More than this, she is the more physical and athletic of the two, with a better range of weaponry.

Although a stoppage is tempting, I think Evans-Smith by decision is the more likely scenario.

Day to Beat dos Santos by Decision

Anderson dos Santos comes into this fight with a record of 0-2 in the UFC and 20-8 in MMA.

The Brazilian is fond of a submission or two and has picked up 11 in those 20 wins. Although he was decisioned by Nad Narimani and Andre Ewell in his two appearances in the promotion, I’d be surprised if he did not show something more in this fight.

Martin Day is also 0-2 in his UFC run. He is coming off a knockout loss to Davey Grant in July and will be keen to avoid suffering the same fate on Saturday.

I’ll take a super cautious Day to grind out a decision win.

Albazi to Beat Zhumagulov by Submission

Amir Albazi and Zhalgas Zhumagulov meet in an intriguing flyweight contest.

Albazi comes into this one with eyes on him following an impressive UFC debut win over Malcolm Gordon. That night, “The Prince” submitted his man in the first round, and I can see a similar result this Saturday. He is certainly a fighter on the rise.

Zhumagulov looks like a decent fighter, but I believe Albazi should have the measure of him.

My prediction for this fight is a first-round submission win for Albazi.

Gordon to Beat Mudaerji by Decision

Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon will be an interesting fight to watch.

Both men come into this one with records of 12-4, with all of Mudaerji’s losses coming by way of submission. Gordon was submitted by Albazi, as I mentioned earlier, but had three sub wins before his debut loss.

I like Gordon by submission in this one.

Sanders to Beat Maness by KO/TKO

Luke Sanders and Nate Maness will lock horns in a catchweight contest this Saturday.

Maness beat Johnny Munoz in the summer to mark a positive start to his UFC career. Now 1-4 from his last five, he will be hoping to put Sanders away in this fight to keep his momentum rolling.

Sanders stopped former UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao in his last night, which took his record to 2-3 from his last five. It’s frustrating because he has a lot more talent than those numbers suggest.

I predict a KO/TKO win for Luke Sanders.

Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo

Spike Carlyle is an exciting fighter that always brings an element of fun to the cage.

The only problem is that “The Alpha Ginger” also tends to treat his gas tank as though it was bottomless. Which is most certainly is not. So, if Bill Algeo can avoid getting swarmed by heavy shots in the first stanza, he can win this fight.

However, I do fancy Carlyle to get to him. A first-round KO/TKO for the ginger one sounds right to me.

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

OK, so I’ve made my predictions. Now it’s time to move on to the best bets and sleepers for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis.

If you like the look of what you see below, keep in mind that you can find all odds on our top UFC sportsbooks. I’ve cut both sets of bets into categories, with my top picks coming first, followed by the best sleepers for Blaydes vs. Lewis below them.

Let’s do it.

Top Picks

  • Curtis Blaydes to Win (-365)
  • Amir Albazi to Win (-110)
  • Anthony Smith to Win (-140)

The first bet to look at is Curtis Blaydes to Win (-365).

As I mentioned earlier, Blaydes is the better athlete and the more well rounded of the two. Lewis has power, sure, but he doesn’t have the same attributes as Francis Ngannou, who is the only fighter to have ever beaten Blaydes.

My prediction is that Blaydes wins this fight by KO/TKO. However, taking him just to win is probably the safer bet.

Amir Albazi to Win (-110) is the second of my top UFC Fight Night bets for this Saturday.

I don’t think these odds are showing much respect to Albazi, who looks like a real talent. Perhaps the handicappers have made a little blunder here in making the line 50/50 with Zhalgas Zhumagulov.

Sure, Zhumagulov is a good fighter, but Albazi has more clean and direct routes to victory.

Anthony Smith to Win (-140) is another solid bet.

Yes, Smith was beaten up by Teixeira and didn’t look his usual self against Rakic. But as we have learned on a few occasions before, he is not the type of fighter that should be underestimated.

Smith is a better fighter than Clark, in my opinion, and should have enough to get the job done.

Top Sleepers

  • Malcolm Gordon by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+400)
  • Amir Albazi by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+300)
  • Luke Sanders by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+240)

Betway is offering odds of +400 on Malcolm Gordon by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission.

I think these odds are excellent and could turn out to be the best bet you can place on the UFC this Saturday. I say that because I believe Gordon is the better fighter, who could see a massive hole in Su Mudaerji’s submission defense and probably exploit it early.

If Gordon can’t do that, his chances of knocking his opponent out are better than the odds suggest.

I’ve taken Amir Albazi to win in my top picks. But how about Albazi to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission at odds of +300? Those odds are very appealing, especially if you see the Swede being more than capable of pulling off a stoppage or submission.

And finally, Luke Sanders by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+240) is another case of exploiting this bet type to your advantage.

Sanders has bags of talent and will hopefully be prepared and ready to showcase just exactly what he is made of on the night. As simple as it sounds, if you take this bet and he wins by stoppage or DQ, you’ll be happy.

Wrap Up

And that’s it for my UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis predictions and picks.

If you’re betting on the fights this weekend, I hope that you’ve got everything you were looking for. Of course, you can find pieces like these ahead of UFC (and other) events on our picks section. We’re talking predictions for MMA, boxing, football, soccer, and every other major sport, and more.

As for the fights, well, we have some good ones coming up. This weekend will see the return of Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr. to the ring when Tyson vs. Jones goes down in California.

It’s the most talked-about fight this month for a reason. So, if you’re betting on Tyson vs. Jones, make sure to check out a couple of our popular pieces on that fight.

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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