Predictions and Best Bets for All Fights at UFC 262

| May 13, 2021 7:02 am PDT

Betting on UFC 262 but don’t know who to wager on? Rest assured that I’ve done the work, so you don’t have to.

We have a very special night of fights ahead of us this Saturday, May 15, in Texas. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler duke it out for the vacant UFC lightweight title. Tony Ferguson fights for his place in the elite tier of 155-pounders. And, of course, there are easily six or seven genuinely tasty fights on the UFC 262 card to bet on.

So, relax, grab a drink, and take in my predictions for all fights at UFC 262. Be sure to read about the best bets to place on the card, too.

Let’s start from the top with a major USA vs. Brazil main event.

Chandler to Beat Oliveira by KO/TKO

The UFC is a strange place. But the lightweight division has to be the most bizarre domain of them all.

We have watched fighters toiling away for years in the hope of a shot at the lightweight strap, only for it to never happen. Tony Ferguson, for example, put together a 12-fight win streak that lasted eight years, and the best he ever got was an interim belt over his shoulder. 

If former three-time Bellator lightweight titlist Michael Chandler beats Charles Oliveira this Saturday, he will have done it in just two fights. An extraordinary statistic, sure, but Chandler is no ordinary fighter. 

The same can be said of the Brazilian, who owns the record for the most UFC submissions in history with 14. But in making my predictions for UFC 262, I looked past “Do Bronx” in this fight, settling on the underdog for my Oliveira vs. Chandler pick. 

Stylistically, this is a very interesting fight. Chandler, in my opinion, holds the trump card. Power and pressure will prevail over Oliveira’s technical striking and vicious submission game. 

Yup. My prediction for Chandler vs. Oliveira is a first-round KO for “Iron” Mike.

Ferguson to Beat Dariush by Decision

It’s an easy segue from my comparison between the careers of Chandler and Ferguson.

A huge fan-favorite, “El Cucuy” has had arguably the most unfortunate UFC career of all time. Looking for his thirteenth straight win, Khabib Nurmagomedov pulled out of their lightweight title bout in 2020, with Justin Gaethje standing in as a last-minute replacement. 

It was the fifth time Khabib vs. Ferguson fell apart. But worse than that was that Ferguson was beaten from pillar to post by the stand-in replacement. 

In December, a loss to Charles Oliveira left the 37-year-old with the first two-loss skid of his career, which is pretty much the reason why the bookmakers are making him the underdog against Beneil Dariush. Now, Dariush is an excellent fighter, but I’m convinced that Ferguson will come back like a madman this Saturday and drag his opponent all the way to a decision win.

The second of my predictions for UFC 262 is for Ferguson to pick up a unanimous decision on the night.

Araujo to Beat Chookagian by Decision

Former UFC women’s flyweight title challenger, Katlyn Chookagian, will have her hands full when she steps in against Brazil’s Viviane Araujo.

Chookagian is a solid fighter that will back herself to work her way to another title shot. Technically, she would have had a better chance of doing so had she managed to get past the hard-hitting divisional debutant Jessica Andrade last year but ate a sickener of a shot to the body that stopped her in one.

At 5’9″, Chookagian is exceptionally tall for the division. But while she has five inches on Araujo in height, they share a 64″ reach. Of course, this means that there is an illusion that she is better fighting on the outside against her opponent. Araujo is smart enough to work the body and close Chookagian down. Do that and you remove her ability to strike freely and within her rhythm.

I’m sensing a minor upset here. Thus, a decision win for the Brazilian is my prediction for Chookagian vs. Araujo. But as I will discuss later, betting on a stoppage for Araujo over Chookagian could be the way to go.

Barboza to Beat Burgos by Decision

Speaking of Brazilians, who else is looking forward to seeing what’s left in the tank for Edson Barboza?

The striking phenom is approaching 40, but that didn’t stop him from earning a well-deserved win over Makwan Amirkhani in October. That snapped a three-fight skid while taking Barboza’s record to 1-1 at 145.

Shane Burgos is as solid as they come. He has a solid, if not flashy, style, heart, and a good chin. But I’m going to back against him on Saturday night, as I feel his ego might lead him into trading with “Junior.” If that happens, I can see Burgos getting frustrated and catching a lot of heat in there.

Barboza’s technical prowess could sway this one. It all depends on the strategy that Burgos brings into the cage and Barboza’s positioning and patience. 

I’ll take Barboza to beat Burgos by the skin of his teeth. But don’t rule out another unexpected finish.

Schnell to Beat Bontorin by KO/TKO

If you haven’t noticed, the UFC 262 predictions thus far have just one knockout expected on the main card.

That’s between Chandler and Oliveira, of course. But hey, this fight looks set to end inside the distance, too.

I like both guys in this fight, but Matt Schnell’s energy should cause many problems for Rogerio Bontorin from the get-go. The Brazilian will be looking to ease himself into the scrap, but there won’t be much time for a feeling out process with the American looking to drop bombs, early doors. 

I see Schnell walking away with a big knockout win as well as a nice bonus check from Dana White for his troubles.

UFC 262 Prelims Predictions

  • Muniz to Beat Souza by Decision
  • Vannata to Beat Grundy by KO/TKO
  • Lee to Beat Shevchenko by Decision
  • Wright to Beat Pickett by KO/TKO
  • Mazany to Beat Cachoeira by Decision
  • Lutz to Beat Aguilar by KO/TKO
  • Giagos to Beat Soriano by Decision

If you’re looking for predictions for the UFC 262 prelims, you can find mine above. 

Perhaps the most controversial of them all, at least on paper, is Muniz to beat Jacare Souza on the prelim-topping bout. With that said, some of you might be surprised to learn that the legendary Brazilian is now 42 years old, while Muniz is more than ten years his junior. 

Lando Vannata is a good shout to beat Mike Grundy, despite dropping down from 155. Vannata’s unpredictability and general aptitude for chaos will more than likely lead to a stoppage win over the Brit.

Elsewhere, I’m predicting wins for Andrea Lee over Antonina Shevchenko, Jordan Wright over Jamie Pickett, and more.

Looking to gamble on UFC 262? Don’t go anywhere until you’ve had a look at my best bets for the evening.

Best Bets for UFC 262

Giagos to Beat Soriano-220
Mazany to Beat Cachoeira-220
Schnell to Beat Bontorin-165

If you break things down to their bare bones, there are three fundamental types of bettors.

First, those that want the top bets for UFC 262. And by that I mean the safe ones. Next, the others looking for the big odds in the sleepers (to some extent, the long shots). Then finally, there are the bettors that are somewhere in the middle.

I have some top UFC 262 sleeper bets below. But the bets above are the three safest wagers to place on UFC 262 this Saturday night. But let’s be clear — these bets are not guaranteed to win.

These are fights, after all, and just one stray kick or mistake on the floor could change everything.

Still, Giagos to beat Soriano and Mazany to get the win over Cachoeira are solid bets for UFC 262. The odds reflect this. 

Finally, Schnell to beat Bontorin is one that I am confident of getting right.

Top Sleeper Picks for UFC 262

Ferguson to Beat Dariush by Decision+500
Chandler to Beat Oliveira by KO/TKO+500
Araujo to Beat Chookagian Inside the Distance+500

Having read this far, my best sleepers for UFC 262 should come as no surprise.

First, Ferguson to beat Dariush by decision is a steal at +500. Just twelve months ago, El Cucuy was being talked up as the only man capable of beating Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Ferguson might have slipped a little, but he hasn’t completely lost it. Dariush is hardly Khabib, either.

Chandler to beat Oliveira to by KO/TKO is another juicy prospect at +500. I’m tempted to be put a couple of units down on the American to make history on Saturday night.

Finally, Araujo to beat Chookagian inside the distance is a sleeper bet for UFC 262 that could pay very nicely indeed.

All of my top sleepers for UFC 262 come in at +500. 

Where to Bet On UFC 262

I’d recommend checking out the latest odds for UFC 262 via the top MMA betting apps and sites, especially if you are reading this on fight night. 

You can find some awesome online UFC 262 odds to get on right now, with my top picks above being the best I have come across thus far. In the end, it’s your decision who gets your vote when betting on Oliveira-Chandler and the rest of the fights but make sure to do a little bit of line shopping to get the best prices possible.

Don’t forget to check out the latest UFC picks and UFC blogs for more on a potentially historic night of fights this Saturday, May 15. 

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam



Back to top