Predictions for All Fights at UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill – September 12, 2020
It’s time for my UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill predictions.
The action goes down at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, September 12. The card is headlined by a strawweight encounter between Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill and propped up with some fairly competitive bouts.
If you’re looking to bet on the UFC this weekend, check out the following predictions.
Hill to Beat Waterson by Decision
On paper, this doesn’t look like your average main event fight. But I think Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill could end up being a very fun fight.
It’s not as though the UFC originally planned on this topping the bill on Saturday night. Instead, they were forced to put a headliner together following the late withdrawal of Glover Teixeira in his now-canceled scrap with Thiago Santos.
Anyway, this is what it is.
So, in terms of styles and physicality, we have Waterson and Hill matching up pretty nicely. Both ladies are 5’2″ with just a year’s difference between them (Hill is 35 to Waterson’s 34).
In terms of reach, Hill has a slight advantage of two inches at 64″. Waterson’s “Karate Hottie” nickname is a nod to her American Freestyle blackbelt, but like Hill, she also has a solid Muay Thai striking base.
The big difference between these two appears to be their conflicting trajectories in the fight game. Waterson has not looked great in her last three fights, while Hill has enjoyed the best period of her pro career. I say with confidence that “Overkill” has the momentum behind her.
Waterson is a dangerous striker from range, so the key to winning this fight will be to keep Hill at the end of her shots. However, I’m not sure she will be able to contain her opponent for the five rounds.
I’ll go with the slight favorite in Hill.
Worthy to Beat Azaitar by Submission
Khama Worthy is one of the best examples of a fighter taking their opportunity in the world’s foremost MMA promotion with both hands.
Drafted in as a replacement for John Makdessi against Devonte Smith, Worthy rose the occasion in spectacular style. Not only did he win on the night, but he overwhelmed Smith on the feet before stopping him in the first round.
That proved to be no flash in the pan, as he guillotined the tough Luis Pena to earn his second win from two UFC fights. All in all, “The Deathstar” is on a seven-fight win streak with five of those wins ending inside the distance.
In short, Worthy is looking very much in his prime right now and will be a threat to many of the unranked guys plying their respective trades at lightweight. Not only is he big and athletic, but he seemingly has a solid all-around style that is super entertaining.
So how does this fare for Ottman Azaitar? Well, the unbeaten Moroccan also made a big impression in his UFC debut last year when he knocked out Finland’s Teemu Packalen. That was a good matchup for Azaitar, but stylistically, he’s not going to find it as easy against Worthy.
Whatever happens in this fight, it should be highly engrossing for as long as it lasts. But given Worthy’s more accomplished skillset, I have to go with him to earn the win here. If can avoid Azaitar’s bombs and take him to the mat, I can see him landing a second submission in back to back UFC fights.
Lee to Beat Modafferi by Decision
If Valentina Shevchenko decided to step off her perch as the dominant champion of the women’s flyweight division, there would be a few real candidates for her crown.
On Saturday night, Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee will be looking to prove that there is healthy competition at 125 pounds, regardless of Shevchenko’s presence.
These two are looking to edge back into the winning column following losses in previous fights.
Modafferi is the more experienced of the pair, having notched up an incredible 41 fights since turning pro in 2003. Now 37, she is still hanging in there with the best of them. But time does catch up with us all, and she will begin to decline soon.
Having put together a seven-fight winning streak, Joanne Calderwood and Lauren Murphy earned split decision victories over Lee to leave her winless from her last two. But in fairness, Lee has a rightful argument in contesting those decisions. Especially her last loss against Murphy.
Both ladies have lost to Murphy in their last fights, but I wouldn’t look too hard into this. Instead, I would focus on the clash of styles here. In short, Modafferi is a rough and tough grappler who has improved in key areas of her striking. But Lee is the younger, fresher, and more convincing all-rounder.
I’ll take Lee by decision.
Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez
Ed Herman is probably a few months away from growing four legs and becoming part of the UFC furniture.
It’s crazy to think that “Short Fuse” introduced himself to the wider MMA fanbase with an appearance on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Ortiz vs. Team Shamrock Finale all the way back in 2006. At that point, most of the world didn’t even know who Barrack Obama was…
Herman makes the 40th appearance of his career of the night against Mike Rodriguez. More impressively, he is looking to string three wins together for the first time since 2012.
Rodriguez will fancy his chances of stopping Herman, who turns 40 next month. The Bostonian stopped Marcin Prachnio in July to take his record to 2-2-0-1 (NC) and will be hoping to get into positive equity on the night.
I think Rodriguez is a decent striker, but he will have trouble if Herman takes him down. His best chance of winning this fight is by stoppage, but that relies on “Slow” Mike avoiding takedowns and maximizing on his setups.
Rodriguez can be a little one dimensional. I’m not entirely convinced that he has much more going for him in this fight than age. Considering he is a significant favorite, I’ll take Herman to upset the odds by grinding out a decision.
Quarantillo to Beat Nelson by Submission
Last week, I tipped the Brazilian madman Michel Pereira to put on another electric performance.
This weekend, I think Billy Quarantillo is the guy that will bring crazy action to the Octagon. He matches up here well with Kyle Nelson, which makes for a really fun back and forth fight on paper.
We know both men love a scrap, but Quarantillo is just made for war. His reckless abandon makes him a guy I love to watch, but more importantly, a fighter that is almost guaranteed to start a fire.
Nelson comes into this one with a 1-2 record in the UFC. In his short time in the promotion, he has stopped Polo Reyes on the feet following submission and TKO losses to Matt Sayles and Carlos Diego Ferreira.
Quarantillo is on a seven-fight win streak, and I expect him to put Nelson to the sword. I like the Contender Series graduate to bag a submission here.
Nam to Beat Schnell by KO/TKO
As a star of MTV’s Caged series, there were a fair number of fans interested in Matt Schnell’s run in the promotion.
Following back to back losses in his first two fights, Schnell bounced back with a solid four-fight win streak that hooked him up with a scrap against Alexandre Pantoja. But Pantoja proved a bridge too far for “Danger,” who slept the Mississippi-native in one.
Nam is coming off his own first-round KO win. He put Zarrukh Adashev away in 32 seconds back in June and will feel confident of doing the same to Schnell. The Hawaiian isn’t getting any younger and will be keen to end this one as early as possible.
I’ll take Nam by a first-round KO/TKO.
Avila to Beat Eubanks by Decision
Sijara Eubanks has every right to feel aggrieved for Karol Rosa’s failure to make weight last weekend. But she will be looking to channel that energy into a solid performance against Julia Avila on Saturday.
Avila might have something to say about that. Not only is the “Raging Panda” a strong, athletic grappler, but she also has serious hands. Her 22 second knockout of Gina Mazany earlier this year is proof of that.
Avila is a massive favorite here, despite coming into this one at short notice. Still, I don’t expect Eubanks will be delighted about the prospect of eating her opponent’s big shots on the night and might be a little gun-shy. If that happens, Avila should take the win on the cards.
Roberts to Beat Frevola by Submission
Matt Frevola has a tough night on his hands against Roosevelt Roberts at the APEX.
Frevola has looked decent since hooking up with the UFC, with a loss to Polo Reyes in January 2018 the only loss of his pro career. What Frevola does, he does well. But he could do with some work when it comes to his defense on the feet, as he can be a little sloppy at times.
Roberts is more precise and has the reach to outscore Frevola on the outside. More than this, he has deceptive power as well as a nasty submission game. I have a feeling we could see Roberts time Frevola well and take him to the ground. From there, he could earn his second UFC submission win in three fights.
Green to Beat Patrick by Decision
Alan Patrick returns to the UFC for the first time since being slept by Scott Holtzman in October 2018.
He faces fellow veteran Bobby Green, who has earned back to back decision wins over Clay Guida and Lando Vannata. The last of those fights went down on August 1, so expect Green to be in top shape.
I like Green in this one. He has the wherewithal to expose Patrick’s cage rust, as well as the skillset to accommodate the Brazilian wherever he wants to take the fight.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Green earn his first finish since, like, forever. But a win on the cards makes the most sense.
Camacho to Beat Weaver by Decision
This is a battle of two reliable workhorses. In one corner, we have Frank Camacho. In the other, Brock Weaver.
Both men are in search of an upturn in fortune. Weaver lost his last fight to Roosevelt Roberts by submission, while Camacho got smoked by Justin Jaynes in June after being submitted by Beneil Dariush in 2019.
I can’t see anything but an attritional, sluggish bout that goes to the cards. There’s not a great deal between them, but I expect Camacho to just about edge this one.
Barberena to Beat Ivy by KO/TKO
Bryan Barberena makes his return to the UFC against Anthony Ivy.
Barberena was surprisingly stopped by Randy Brown in June of 2019, just months after being knocked out by Vicente Luque. The Californian had never been stopped prior to the Luque fight, and some had questioned whether this played in a role in his subsequent loss.
Against Ivy, “Bam Bam” has a chance to get back to winning ways. Ivy was slammed by Christian Aguilera in his maiden UFC fight earlier this year and could be the perfect opponent for Barberena’s return.
Barberena by KO/TKO.
Mazo to Beat Kish by Decision
Another women’s flyweight scrap opens the card, with Sabina Mazo and Justine Kish looking to go at it.
Kish is coming off a win over Lucie Pudilova, while Mazo took her record to 8-1 with wins over JJ Aldrich and Shana Dobson.
I like Mazo in this fight, as she seems to be getting into the groove as of late. Kish has just four fights in under four years and doesn’t appear to have the same motivation.
That’s it for now. I hope you enjoyed reading my predictions. I’ll be sitting back with a cold one watching them all play out this Saturday.
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Good luck and enjoy the fights!