Prediction for Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque at UFC 265 With Recommended Bets

| August 6, 2021 9:39 am PDT

Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque is one of the best fights to bet on at UFC 265.

On paper, it should make for an interesting bout. The bookies agree, with the latest odds for Chiesa vs. Luque showing anything but a walkover for either man this Saturday in Houston, Texas.

If you’re looking to place wagers on this fight, I have a couple that might take your fancy. I’ll be talking you through those bets, who I like in the fight, and some analysis for my predictions and pick for Chiesa vs. Luque at UFC 265. 

If that sounds good, let’s get started.

Chiesa or Luque – Who Wins?

  • Vicente Luque to Win by KO/TKO

This fight looks about as close as you can get to the classic grappler vs. striker matchup.

Chiesa, who has never stopped anyone with strikes in his career, is probably the best wrestler Luque has fought in his career to date. Conversely, Chiesa has never met a striker as solid and in their prime at welterweight than Luque.

You’ll find out why I’m backing the “Silent Assassin” to register his 12th KO/TKO win on Saturday night a little later. 

I’m guessing you’re keen to see the odds and best bets for the fight first, so let’s get them covered first.

Odds for Chiesa vs. Luque at UFC 265

Michael Chiesa to Win-110
Vicente Luque to Win-110

It looks like we have another pick’em at UFC 265. 

All hail the matchmaking team at the promotion, who has done another great job with this one.

This card has four of the top UFC fights to bet on in August 2021, and three of them are 50/50 fights. At least on paper. 

But looking at Luque’s odds to beat Chiesa, I can make a strong case for him having the advantage. Thus, the Brazilian is the best bet for UFC 265’s main card welterweight scrap. I just don’t see Chiesa being able to stifle his man for the full three rounds and expect him to take a lot of damage. 

Chiesa’s odds to win at UFC 265 might tempt some bettors into backing him on the moneyline.

While I can understand why the “Maverick” is a popular betting pick, I’m not sold on him getting the better of his opponent. 

The value is with Luque. He might not be one of the most unbeatable UFC fighters in 2021, but he is the smart bet in this fight.

Best Bets for Chiesa vs. Luque

Luque to Win-110
Luque to Win by KO/TKO+320

I’m confident with my betting pick and predictions for Chiesa vs. Luque.

With that said, I’m also keen to avoid straying away from the pick. There is a lot to be said for keeping things simple when betting on fights in the UFC and this one is a perfect example of playing your cards right. 

Luque to win comes in at -110. That’s a good price in itself, as it essentially means that you can back him on the line and get close to EVENS if he wins by KO/TKO, submission, decision, or any other way such as a DQ.

Still, I think the game plan for the Brazilian will be to force mistakes from Chiesa. I mean, he has to, right?

While Luque’s stoppage power is fierce, his takedown defense is certainly not. Thus, it’s unlikely that he will pick up a decision, or with Chiesa’s ground game, the submission.

If you’re betting on Luque vs. Chiesa, take the Brazilian to stop his man.

Why Luque Beats Chiesa

When Michael Graves outwrestled Luque in The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale in 2015, the Brazilian’s record dropped to 7-5-1.

Fast forward six years, and it stands at 20-7-1. The only men to beat the Silent Assasin in 15 fights are elite welterweights in Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. Needless to say, old Luque has come a long way since that loss.

Sure, some of the wins on his record might not be stellar. But the man has stoppages in every one of his wins since then, bar one (Mike Perry). A submission win over former dominant champion Tyron Woodley in March also marked the first time “The Chosen One” tapped in his professional career in the UFC.

Chiesa, on the other hand, has his admirers for putting together a run of four straight wins since returning to 170-pounds. A submission win over Carlos Condit was followed up by decisions over Diego Sanchez, Rafael dos Anjos, and Neil Magny. But I don’t see anything majorly impressive here.

My betting pick for Luque vs. Chiesa is a knockout win for Luque. While a solid wrestler, I think Chiesa is a little overrated. He has benefitted from fighting guys well past their sell-by date in recent times. With the possible exclusion of Magny.

With no power, his entire gameplan will be based on lay and pray. But there will come a point where he finds himself within his opponent’s range on the feet and gets punished.

Where to Bet on Chiesa vs. Luque

That should give you the heads up on the clash between Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque this Saturday.

If you’re looking to gamble on the Chiesa vs. Luque fight, you can find the best odds and top markets over at our recommended betting apps for MMA fights. Whether you’re backing Luque or Chiesa, you can find more of the top props for this bout and the others at UFC 265.

For more recommended wagers for the event, head on over to our UFC picks section.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam



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