Prediction and Betting Tips for Mark Magsayo vs. Julio Ceja – August 21, 2021

| August 18, 2021 7:39 am PDT

Boxing bettors will be targeting the Mark Magsayo vs. Julio Ceja featherweight scrap this Saturday, August 21, from Las Vegas.

The latest odds for Magsayo vs. Ceja have the Filipino as the favorite heading into the fight. I’ll be taking a closer look at the line and giving my opinion on where the value is. I’ll also be providing some analysis of the bout to help you make your bets.

This intriguing bout goes down on the undercard of Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas this Saturday night. Despite what some think, it should be a much closer bout than the odds suggest.

Here’s all you need to know about betting on Magsayo vs. Ceja.

Latest Odds for Magsayo vs. Ceja

Mark Magsayo’s Odds to Win-430
Julio Ceja’s Odds to Win+300

Magsayo (22-0, 15 KOs) is clearly fancied to overcome the challenge of Ceja (32-4-1, 28 KOs).

But these odds are not reflective of how tough of a fight this should be for the Filipino.

After all, he’s moving up in weight here against a guy that came very close to beating the current WBC super bantamweight champion in his last fight. Ceja clearly felt he got the better of Brandon Figueroa that night, and he wasn’t the only one.

Ceja has been around the block at 122-pounds, even picking up a loss against the great Guillermo Rigondeaux.

Although he hasn’t fought since losing to “The Heartbreaker” in 2019, I believe there is value in Ceja’s odds to win this fight.

At +300, the implied probability sits at 25%. With his power and experience at this weight, I think that is being a little unfair on the Mexican.

Magsayo vs. Ceja Prediction

  • Fighter to Win: Julio Ceja
  • Method of Victory: KO/TKO

My prediction for Magsayo vs. Ceja is clear — I’m backing “Polito” for the upset.

The moneyline odds are way off here, in my opinion, with Ceja, the toughest opponent Magsayo has faced in his career to date. What’s more, he is a dangerous puncher that will find his range and test the 26-year-old’s chin.

Magsayo is an exciting prospect, but it’s clear that he has some pretty bad habits. As I will explain below, these could be exploited by a savvy, experienced former champion like Ceja on the night.

Why Bet on Ceja to Beat Magsayo?

Magsayo has next to no experience against top-level opposition.

Sure, his record of 22-0 looks special on paper, but who has he beaten? He looked good against Pablo Cruz in his last fight, earning a fourth-round stoppage. But “The Lethal Mosquito” was 21-3 heading into that bout and had lost to the 16-5-6 Edy Valencia Mercado in his previous fight.

Before beating Cruz, Magsayo struggled with Rigoberto Hermosillo. This is the same guy that lost to the 14-17-7 Francisco Gabriel Pina after their fight and is 0-4 from his last four bouts. That’s not a great sign, is it?

I’m not going to blindly make a prediction for Magsayo vs. Ceja based on an unbeaten record that can easily be scrutinized with a little bit of effort. The bottom line here is that there is no way the odds for Magsayo vs. Ceja should be this wide.

Ceja is a former world champion that arguably beat Figueroa in his last fight. He has 28 KOs from 32 wins, which includes stoppages over former WBC and WBA interim champion Hugo Ruiz and the longest-reigning bantamweight champion of all time in Anselmo Moreno.

Sure, Polito has not fought since 2019. That means that there will be a little bit of rust to shake off. But I’m expecting him to come through, nonetheless. His toughness and power will cause all kinds of problems for Magsayo.

Featherweight is new grounds for both men. But I’d take the more experienced and more powerful boxer in this scenario, especially when you weigh up their accomplishments and ages. Magsayo is just two years younger than his opponent at 26.

The Mexican could end up as the best sleeper for the boxing this weekend.

Top Picks for Magsayo vs. Ceja

Ceja to Win+300
Ceja to Win by KO/TKO+540

Before I close out this betting preview, here are the two best bets for Magsayo vs. Ceja.

First, the odds for Ceja to beat Magsayo are bountiful in the circumstances. Before I’d consider any other bet on this fight, think hard about taking this price.

However, if you are set on wagering on Magsayo to win, I’d suggest popping some small change down on Ceja by KO/TKO at +540. He has the power and is most definitely capable of flattening his opponent.

Make sure to give the props for Magsayo vs. Ceja the once over before the fight. The top boxing betting apps will have a wider variety of options available that you can look at.

More Betting Advice for Magsayo vs. Ceja

We’ve covered the odds and predictions for Mark Magsayo vs. Julio Ceja.

I’ve also provided you with my top picks for the fight and an insight into the matchup.

Other than reiterating why you should look at the prop bets for Magsayo vs. Ceja, the only other bit of advice I have here is to look over our boxing betting strategies to get a better understanding of how to approach your betting picks for this one. 

Finally, if you haven’t got your bets down for the main event, take a look at the following piece.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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