Poland vs. Italy Betting – Nations League, October 11, 2020

| October 6, 2020 11:00 am PDT

The third round of fixtures in Group A1 kicks off with Poland looking to use home advantage to its favor as it welcomes Italy to Gdansk on Sunday.

Italy tops the group after two games, but Poland will take some confidence from the narrow defeat in the Netherlands and the comeback win in Bosnia during the international break last month.

Poland vs. Italy Odds

Poland to Win4.00
The Draw3.25
Italy to Win2.00

Betway has looked at Italy’s fine run of form over the last two years and expects it to come away from Poland with three more points. But any side that has Robert Lewandowski playing for it must be in with a chance – and the odds for the draw, if not the home win, might be of some interest here.

Match Preview

After a disappointing World Cup in 2018, Poland made sure that there would be no mistakes in a relatively easy Euro 2020 qualifying group, finishing top and only losing one game in the entire campaign. Poland then went into its first Nations League game against the Netherlands without Robert Lewandowski and still only lost 1-0 to the home side in Amsterdam.

The talismanic striker returned for the second game – also away in Zenica against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Poland dealt with the threat of Dzeko and finished with a 2-1 win after falling behind in the first half. Now there should be a feeling in the squad that three more points from this admittedly tough fixture with Italy can be added to the tally.

But Robert Mancini’s side will be no pushover. After the embarrassment of missing out completely on Russia 2018, the Azzurri has been one of the most impressive national teams in Europe. The inaugural Nations League campaign was during a period of transition, but Italy then became only the sixth side ever to finish its European Championship qualification campaign with a 100% record from its ten games.

The Nations League started with a less than satisfactory draw with Bosnia before a much-improved showing in Amsterdam, with Nicolo Barella scoring the only goal. The Inter midfielder is one of the younger players in what is still a relatively old squad. But Mancini will be hoping that experience will tell on Sunday – and the reverse fixture against the Dutch three days later.

Poland vs. Italy Prediction and Betting Pick

Pick
  • The Draw
    3.25

There is no doubt that Italy has been one of the more successful national teams over the last few years, but this early season fixture will be a real test. There have been some COVID-related postponements already in Serie A, and the players are still recovering from last season as well. A draw away from home would probably suit Robert Mancini ahead of the Netherlands game, and I think the odds for the stalemate look the best value here.

Dan Roberts
Dan Roberts

Dan Roberts is an experienced freelance writer specialising in sports and sports betting. He is particularly knowledgeable about world soccer, but also writes about football, basketball and cricket.

As a fan of Nottingham Forest, New York Knicks, Minnesota Vikings and New York Mets, Dan has not had much to celebrate recently.

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  1. john rosati October 10, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    2-1 Italy

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