Player Prop Bets for Browns vs. Steelers – NFL Wild Card, January 10, 2021
The football gods have not been kind to the Cleveland Browns. In a sense, they have, as the Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
But now that they’re here, it seems fate is in the mood to test them.
Cleveland enters the biggest game for Browns fans in almost two decades without their head coach or their best offensive lineman. Despite this, they head to Heinz Field in an attempt to take down the Pittsburgh Steelers for the second week in a row.
It seems unlikely, all things considered, but it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. For the game itself, check out this Browns vs. Steelers 2021 Wild Card pick.
I’m here to help you win in another way; via Browns vs. Steelers player props.
Let’s dive into the Factory of Sadness and see which players can potentially make you money at the top NFL betting sites on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Browns are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002, but it isn’t because of their quarterback. Baker Mayfield had a pretty efficient year, but everything he did well tended to branch off of Cleveland’s elite ground game.
Even with a seemingly tough matchup ahead of them, the Browns are very unlikely to deviate from who they’ve been all year. That’s a team that will run early and often, try to limit mistakes, and tire out the opposing defense.
Mayfield can certainly burn defenses when he’s on, but in two matchups with the Steelers, he failed to top even 200 yards passing.
It’s possible the Browns fall behind, and Mayfield takes it to the air to play catch up, but I actually like Cleveland in this game. If they win, it will be due to their ground game, and Mayfield going off probably won’t be part of the equation.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 283.5 Passing Yards (-113)
On the other side of things, I think Big Ben is forced to air it out here. That’s really Pittsburgh’s offense by design, as their passing attack features their best weapons, and it’s the only thing that works for them.
It’s probably for the best, as James Conner is slow, and Cleveland’s run defense happens to be their strength on that side of the ball.
Whether the Steelers dominate early or they fall into a hole, this team’s most likely path to putting up points is through the air.
Roethlisberger wasn’t really needed in a blowout win the first time these two teams crossed paths, but he topped this passing yardage total five other times in 2020. I think he gets there again on Sunday.
Nick Chubb Over 74 Rushing Yards (-113)
For how much the Browns want to run – and how effectively they do so – this feels like a pretty tame yardage total.
Chubb has been a monster in 2020, as he put up over 1,000 rushing yards and 12 scores – in just 12 games. He also can do a ton of damage on just one run.
He only had the opportunity to face Pittsburgh once, but he dropped 108 yards on them last week. That marked his sixth 100+ yard game of the year and allowed him to top this rushing yardage total for the eighth time.
Pittsburgh’s run defense grades out well on the year, but it hasn’t been quite as good lately, as that unit has allowed the 10th most rushing yards over the last four weeks.
Cleveland needs Chubb to succeed for a chance here, and this yardage total isn’t even that high. Hammer the Over.
James Conner Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
There are different yardage numbers depending on where you bet on NFL player props, but this is the highest one I’ve seen.
This is a bet I will gladly target. Not only does it work simultaneously with my other bets, but Conner just isn’t a guy you should feel great about (or fear).
That, and he is not an explosive runner.
Case in point, Conner has failed to top even 50 rushing yards in eight games this year. Three of those instances have come in the last three games, while the matchup with the Browns (9th against the run) is less than ideal.
This is a very interesting game to bet on. Browns fans are going to be crossing their fingers harder than ever here, and if you’re not a fan of the Steelers, it’s hard not to pull for Cleveland.
I actually love the Browns in this spot, and you can probably see how that trickles into how you bet on Browns vs. Steelers player prop bets.
The two don’t need to be married, of course, but if you disagree, you can always go the other way or just ignore the picks.
That said, I have the Browns in my 2021 Wild Card upset picks, so just keep that in mind when you prepare to bet on this game or the props within it.
For some more 2021 NFL Wild Card player prop bets, hit the links below.