Picks, Betting Tips, and Predictions for AFL Round 11 – May 27-29 (2022)

| May 25, 2022 4:17 am PDT

Welcome to my betting tips, picks, and predictions for AFL Round 11.

The footy action gets underway this Friday, May 27, as Sydney and Richmond go head-to-head at the SCG. The two sides are locked on 24 points in the standings, so they are destined to dish up a tasty clash.

Meanwhile, Fremantle will attempt to end Melbourne’s 100% record at the MCG. We also have the small matter of Collingwood vs. Carlton – one of the greatest and longest-standing rivalries in the Australian Football League.

Before we get stuck into my Round 11 AFL predictions, let’s check out the AFL betting odds for this weekend.

AFL Odds for Round 11

  • Sydney (1.61) vs. Richmond (2.30)
  • Brisbane (1.16) vs. GWS Giants (5.00)
  • Geelong (1.10) vs. Adelaide (7.00)
  • Melbourne (1.20) vs. Fremantle (4.50)
  • West Coast (7.00) vs. Western Bulldogs (1.10)
  • Gold Coast (1.80) vs. Hawthorn (2.00)
  • St Kilda (1.06) vs. North Melbourne (9.00)
  • Collingwood (2.70) vs. Carlton (1.47)
  • Port Adelaide (1.14) vs. Essendon (5.50)

As expected, Betway anticipates a tight clash between Sydney and Richmond. If the bookmakers’ Round 11 AFL odds are to be believed, Gold Coast vs. Hawthorn will also be a close-fought battle.

Brisbane, Geelong, Melbourne, St Kilda, and Port Adelaide are the heavy home favorites this weekend. Elsewhere, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton are favored to win on the road.

Round 11 AFL Predictions

It’s time to dive into my predictions for AFL Round 11. I will start by taking an in-depth look at three standout matchups before providing the remainder of my Round 11 AFL predictions.

Brisbane to Beat GWS Giants

Brisbane heads into Round 11 on the back of a rare defeat against Hawthorn. Despite racking up 100+ points for the fifth match in a row, the Lions suffered an agonizing five-point loss at the hands of the Hawks.

That said, Saturday’s clash against struggling Greater Western Sydney provides the Queenslanders with the perfect opportunity to return to winning ways and get back on track.

The Lions find themselves second on the AFL ladder after winning eight of their ten matches. By contrast, the Giants are all the way down in fourteenth place following a run of seven defeats in ten outings.

Given the 20-point gulf between high-flying Brisbane and lowly GSW, I’m confident that Brisbane will claim an easy victory this weekend.

Melbourne to Beat Fremantle

Can anyone stop Melbourne?

Last weekend, the Demons maintained their 100% record in 2022 with a comfortable 47-point victory over North Melbourne. Bayley Fritsch and Tom McDonald both kicked three goals in the rout, while Clayton Oliver dominated the midfield once again.

Thanks to last season’s premiership run, Melbourne comes into Round 11 on a 17-match winning streak. On top of that, the Demons boast the best defensive record in the competition by some distance.

Granted, the Dockers are enjoying an impressive season of their own. Having won three of their ten encounters, they find themselves fourth in the standings – 12 points behind first-place Melbourne.

At the end of the day, though, the Demons are on a totally different level to Fremantle. Following low-scoring losses to Gold Coast and Collingwood, I expect Freo to suffer a third successive defeat on Saturday.

St Kilda to Beat North Melbourne

St Kilda maintained fifth place on the ladder with a dominant win against Adelaide in Round 10. Max King booted a whopping six goals last time out, meaning he now sits fourth on the Coleman Medal leaderboard.

MOST GOALS (2022 AFL SEASON)

  • Charlie Curnow (Carlton) – 33
  • Tom Lynch (Richmond) – 31
  • Tom Hawkins (Geelong) – 31
  • Max King (St Kilda) – 29
  • Jeremy Cameron (Geelong) – 28

Thanks to last weekend’s triumph, the Saints have won seven of their previous nine outings. That is not good news for struggling North Melbourne.

If it weren’t for West Coast’s dismal start to the season, the Kangaroos would be at the foot of the ladder. Despite losing nine of their ten matches this year, they sit second from bottom in the standings.

Anything other than a straightforward St Kilda win would be a massive shock here. While the Saints are a team on the up, the Roos are heading in the opposite direction.

More AFL Predictions for Round 11

  • Richmond to Beat Sydney
  • Geelong to Beat Adelaide
  • Western Bulldogs to Beat West Coast
  • Hawthorn to Beat Gold Coast
  • Carlton to Beat Collingwood
  • Port Adelaide to Beat Essendon

Sydney may be favored to beat Richmond, but I can see Richmond winning on Friday. The Tigers have won each of their last four matches, while the Swans have lost three of their previous four.

I’m also backing the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Carlton to win on their travels this weekend. Elsewhere, Geelong and Port Adelaide shouldn’t struggle to win on home soil in Round 11. Let’s not forget that Adelaide and Essendon find themselves in the bottom four.

Top AFL Betting Picks for Round 11

  • Sydney vs. Richmond – Richmond to Win (2.30)
  • Brisbane vs. GWS Giants – Brisbane to Win By 40+ Points (2.25)
  • West Coast vs. Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs -42.5 Handicap (1.90)

In my eyes, Richmond’s price to beat Sydney is too high to ignore. Although they both sit on 24 points, the Tigers are on a four-match winning streak. By contrast, the Swans have managed to win just one of their past four outings.

Brisbane is priced at just 1.16 to beat GWS. Since the Lions have kicked more points than anyone else this year, I’m backing them to win by 40+ points on Saturday.

Finally, I recommend backing the Bulldogs with the -42.5 handicap. The Eagles have lost nine of their ten matches and have the worst defensive record in the comp, so the Dogs shouldn’t struggle to notch a big victory this weekend.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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