Suns vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Pick – Friday, May 6, 2022

| May 5, 2022 11:06 am PDT

The Western Conference Semifinal series between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks shifts to Dallas for Game 3. Phoenix has dominated the first two games, winning by a combined 27 games.

How will the Mavericks bounce back at home? The first two games taught us that Luka Doncic won’t be able to shoulder the workload by himself. Who else will step up for the Mavericks?

There’s no denying Phoenix has been the better team, but going on the road could change things. Let’s see how the sportsbooks view this matchup.

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds for May 6th

Sportsbook Phoenix Suns Dallas Mavericks Bonus Offered Visit Site
Bovada (+1.0) (-110) (-1.0) (-110) 50% up to $250 Visit Bovada
BetUS PK (-110) PK (-110) 125% up to $2,500 Visit BetUS (+1.0) (-112) (+1.0) (-108) 100% up to $1,000 Visit

The NBA sportsbooks don’t have a clear read on this matchup. BetUS has it as a PK, while Bovada and have the Dallas Mavericks as a slight favorite.

The Phoenix Suns haven’t had an issue covering the spread in this series. They covered in all six of their playoff wins and failed to cover in their two playoff losses.

Dallas looked great in the first round of the playoffs. They failed to cover the spread in Game 1 but bounced back to cover in five straight games. They’ll need to cover to win at home in Game 3.

The over/under is right around 220 points for this matchup. Both games have gone over 230 points, but the sportsbooks don’t want to boost this line too much.

Devin Booker and Luka Doncic missed time in the first round, but everyone is healthy. Can Dallas bounce back, or will Phoenix take a 3-0 series lead?

Suns vs. Mavericks Preview

The Phoenix Suns didn’t look dominant in their first-round series victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Their performance dropped them from the NBA Finals favorite, but they’ve reclaimed that spot after dominating the first two games in this series.

Devin Booker has missed time, putting a bigger emphasis on Chris Paul. Paul led the league in assists, but his scoring numbers are way up in the playoffs.

  • 22.6 points
  • 58.0 field goal percentage
  • 33.3 three-point percentage

Everyone on the Suns has been knocking down shots at a high clip. They have scored 120+ points against a Dallas Mavericks team that allowed the second-fewest points in the regular season.

We all know the story surrounding the Mavericks. Luka Doncic is averaging 40 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists. You can’t ask more from your star player, but he can’t do it on his own. Even head coach Jason Kidd said Dallas’ other players need to step up.

Jalen Brunson is the most obvious candidate. He was spectacular in the first round, averaging 27.8 points on 48.1 percent shooting. We expected his numbers to dip with Doncic in the lineup, but not this much.

  • 11.0 points
  • 31.1 field goal percentage
  • 16.7 three-point percentage

Dallas needs more from every player aside from Doncic, but Brunson especially. He can’t average 11 points and expect to help the Mavericks advance to the Western Conference Finals.

The 2022 NBA Finals MVP odds had Booker as one of the top contenders. His hamstring injury changed things, but he should return to the top. The Suns are back in position to win the 2022 NBA Finals.

Game 3 will tell a lot about Dallas’ comeback chances. If Doncic has help, the Mavericks will have a good chance. If not, Phoenix will take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Suns vs. Mavericks Same Game Parlay 

  • Reggie Bullock Under 9.5 Points (-114)
  • Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points (-116)
  • Deandre Ayton Under 9.5 Rebounds (-134)

We’re taking three unders for my Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns same game parlay. We don’t have any value picks, but the (+510) odds mean you’ll earn over $500 on a $100 bet.

Reggie Bullock hasn’t significantly impacted the Mavericks in his first season with the team. He had a nice stretch midway through the season, but he averaged less than nine points in the regular season.

Bullock looked good in Game 2, scoring 16 points on 4-8 three-point shooting. That came on the heels of three straight games under nine points.

Even if you include his Game 2 performance, Bullock is averaging 6.8 points on 7-24 three-point shooting against the Suns this season. I’m expecting another down performance.

Mikal Bridges had a strong performance in the first round, but he has struggled against the Mavericks all season.

  • November 17: 10 points
  • November 19: 19 points
  • January 20: 12 points
  • Game 1: 13 points
  • Game 2: 11 points

Bridges has come close to going over this projection, but he only did it once. Chris Paul and Devin Booker have been scoring at a high clip, so the Suns don’t need a ton from Bridges. That should keep him under 13.5 points.

Deandre Ayton was one of the top rebounders in the regular season, averaging 10.2. Ayton has taken on a bigger scoring load in the playoffs, but his rebounding numbers have taken a hit.

Ayton had 17 rebounds in Game 3 of Phoenix’s series against the New Orleans Pelicans. However, that’s the only time in eight playoff games he cleared 9.5 rebounds. I’m expecting another game under 9.5 rebounds.

Suns vs. Mavericks Pick 

My Pick: Suns +1.0 (-110)Bet on the Suns at Bovada

I know the Dallas Mavericks are the home team, but I don’t understand why they’re the favorite. The Phoenix Suns have been the better team, and I haven’t seen anything that’ll change that.

Game 3 will come down to the Mavericks supporting cast stepping up. They should be better, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to beat the Suns.

Fans can tune into Game 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Please feel free to visit our sports picks page for the latest breakdowns and picks.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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