Prediction for Phillies vs. Mets – Sunday, May 1st, 2022

| April 30, 2022 1:35 pm PDT

A pair of NL East foes will battle on Sunday night as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets. Philadelphia won the first game of the season series, but New York has picked up three straight victories.

The Mets have the best record at 15-6, while the Phillies are 10-11. It’ll be interesting to see if the Phillies can turn things around against a high-powered Mets team. Which side has the upper hand for Sunday night’s matchup? Take a look at the odds.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds for May 1st

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It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see the New York Mets as the favorite. New York has the best record in baseball, and they’ll send one of the best pitchers in baseball to the mound.

The Philadelphia Phillies are 10-11 against the spread, but they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five games. New York has been one of the best against the spread, covering in 14 of their 21 games.

There aren’t many surprises on the run line. Philadelphia is one of the highest-scoring teams, going over their run total in 52.6 percent of games. The Mets are mid-pack, going under in 55.6 percent of their games. The best MLB betting sites have the O/U at seven runs.

Philadelphia isn’t dealing with any new injuries to their lineup, but we can’t say the same for New York. J.D. Davis got hit in the foot in Wednesday’s game. He missed Friday’s game, but there’s hope he’ll return for this series.

Let’s talk about each team and check out their chances to win on Sunday night.

Phillies vs. Mets Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies won their first series of the season, but they lost their next four. It wasn’t looking good for the Phillies, but a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies gave them some momentum.

Philadelphia’s offense finally woke up, scoring 7+ runs in each game. Unfortunately, they went in the opposite direction on Friday night.

The New York Mets pitched a combined no-hitter in a 3-0 victory over the Phillies. That’s the second time the Mets have shut out the Phillies in four games. Speaking of the Mets pitching, they’ve been among the best in the majors.

  • 2.79 ERA
  • 1.03 WHIP
  • .194 Batting Average
  • 213 Strikeouts

They lead the majors in strikeouts while ranking second in the other categories. Everyone knew the Mets had an elite pitching staff, but the offense was their biggest concern. Well, they have the second-best batting average and third-most runs.

It’s still early in the season, but I may have been wrong about the Mets.

Philadelphia was one of my top bets to make the 2022 MLB playoffs because of their offense. They’ve scored the fifth-most runs, but they’ve struggled against the Mets. That’ll have to change if they want to challenge for the NL East title.

It’ll be tough for the Phillies’ offense to garner many runs against Max Scherzer. Scherzer has kicked off his Mets career with four great starts.

  • 1.80 ERA
  • 0.76 WHIP
  • 8 Walks
  • 33 Strikeouts

He is coming off his best start, allowing two hits and striking out ten in a victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Philadelphia will counter with Zach Eflin. He doesn’t have many strikeouts, but he has a solid 3.20 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He should be able to slow down the Mets’ offense.

We’re likely looking at a low-scoring matchup.

Phillies vs. Mets Same Game Parlay

  • Jeff McNeil to Record a Hit (-190)
  • Odubel Herrera to Record a Hit (-125)
  • Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172)

I’m thinking outside the box with my same game parlay for this matchup. We’re avoiding the stars in this matchup, taking New York Mets hitters and Philadelphia Phillies starter Zach Eflin.

Jeff McNeil’s 2022 season is off to a strong start. He leads the Mets with a .328 batting average, while having a home run and nine RBIs. He has struggled against the Phillies this season, but it’s a different story against Eflin.

He is hitting .273 in 22 plate appearances. Last season, he went 2-4 with a double in his lone matchup against Eflin. His great start to the season should put him in position for a hit.

Obubel Herrera only has 18 at-bats in 2022, but he has made the most of them.

  • 7 hits
  • 2 home runs
  • 6 RBIs

He had a pair of doubles in Saturday’s victory over the Mets. I believe he’ll continue his hot streak against Max Scherzer.

Surprisingly, Herrera has decent numbers against the Mets ace. He has a .296 batting average in 54 at-bats. He offers the best value among Phillies players recording a hit.

We close out my same game parlay with the Phillies starting pitcher. Eflin has been solid this season, but he doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts. He has only gone over 4.5 strikeouts once in four games.

New York’s offense ranks top 10 in strikeouts per game. Eflin likely won’t do much to change that. The Mets should continue to have success without striking out much. We’ll see how long Eflin stays in the game.

Phillies vs. Mets Pick

My Pick: New York Mets to Win (-175)Bet on the Mets at BetOnline

I was low on the New York Mets ahead of the 2022 season, but I’ve changed my tune. Their pitching has lived up to the hype, and their offense has been better than expected.

Honestly, there’s no way I’m picking against Max Scherzer. He might be 37 years old, but he remains one of the MLB’s best pitchers. I expect him to shut down the Philadelphia Phillies offense.

ESPN will have the coverage of Sunday night baseball at 7 p.m. ET. Our MLB picks will continue to update bettors with the best predictions and picks.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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