Prediction for Phillies vs. Mariners – Monday, May 9th, 2022

| May 8, 2022 7:19 pm PDT

The Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners will begin their lone series of the 2022 season on Monday night. This will be the first matchup between the two teams since 2017.

Both teams entered the season as fringe playoff contenders, but they’ve scuffled out the gate. Each team has 16 losses, while Seattle’s 13 wins are one higher than the Phillies. Each team needs to string together a few wins to move into playoff contention.

Which team will start a win streak on Monday night? Let’s check out the odds.

Phillies vs. Mariners Odds for May 9th 

Sportsbook Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners Bonus Offered Visit Site (+105) (-115) 100% up to $1,000 Visit
Bovada (+105) (-125) 50% up to $250 Visit Bovada
BetUS (+106) (-126) 125% up to $2,500 Visit BetUS

The consensus has the Seattle Mariners as the favorite, but the top MLB sportsbooks recognize this could be a close matchup. We acknowledged both teams have a nearly identical record.

The Philadelphia Phillies’ 12-16 record against the spread is sixth-worst in the majors. Seattle is a little better at 15-14, but they’ve lost eight of their last ten games. There’s no doubt that hurt their betting trends.

All three betting sites have the run total at 7.5. and BetUS favor the under, while Bovada has both options at (-110).

That total could be too low as the Phillies and Mariners are among the eight teams that have gone over their run total in at least 50 percent of their games.

Philadelphia won’t have Didi Gregorius after placing him on the IL with a knee injury. J.P. Crawford missed Sunday’s game with a back injury but could return on Monday.

Let’s break down Monday’s night matchup by checking out the offenses and pitching.

Phillies vs. Mariners Offensive Battle

Before the 2022 season, the Philadelphia Phillies were among my best bets to make the 2022 playoffs. My primary reason behind that prediction was a dominant offense. They signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to an offense that included Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto.

We’re nearly 30 games into the season, and Philadelphia’s offense ranks ninth in the NL in runs scored. It’s hard to find a glaring weakness with their team numbers. The only problem is they have the second-fewest walks.

Schwarber is only hitting .211, but his seven home runs lead the team. The biggest liability for their offense has been Rhys Hoskins.

  • .189 batting average
  • 2 home runs
  • 9 RBIs
  • 14 walks
  • 32 strikeouts

Hoskins isn’t one of their bigger stars, but he has been a consistent player for a few years. Philadelphia could use a little more from everyone, but especially Hoskins.

The Seattle Mariners have the fifth-most runs in the AL, but their 118 runs are four less than the Phillies. Like Philadelphia, their team stats don’t show a glaring weakness.

Ty France and J.P. Crawford have been impressive, and Julio Rodriquez is heating up after a slow start to his MLB career. However, offseason acquisition Jesse Winker has been a big disappointment.

  • .196 batting average
  • 1 home run
  • 9 RBIs

The only plus about his 2022 numbers is his 18 walks to 15 strikeouts. He is a big reason why the Mariners lead the AL in walks. Still, we’d like to see better contact and power numbers from the former all-star.

Seattle’s offense has been a big talking point in their recent skid. They’ve only scored over 3+ runs three times in their last ten games. They’ll need more production to beat the Phillies.

Phillies vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup

It’s important to examine the offenses, but most MLB games will come down to the pitching matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound. The Seattle Mariners counter with Chris Flexen.

Check out the 2022 numbers for each pitcher.

  Ranger Suarez Chris Flexen
ERA 4.63 3.10
WHIP 1.63 1.14
Walks 10 9
Strikeouts 15 17

Flexen has the better numbers, but he’s 1-4 in five starts. He hasn’t been the issue, allowing three runs or fewer in every start. However, the Mariners’ offense has scored a combined five runs in his starts.

Suarez hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start, but he has pitched six fewer innings than Flexen. He has only pitched more than five innings once in 2022. Flexen has achieved that three times.

We know the starting pitchers will set the tone, but what about the bullpens? Well, things could get dicey if it becomes a bullpen game.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has a 4.50 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Both marks rank bottom six in the majors. On Thursday, the Phillies had a historic collapse against the New York Mets. Check out the numbers for Jordan Norwood and Corey Knebel.

  Jordan Norwood Corey Knebel
Innings 0.1 0.2
Hits 4 4
Runs 4 3

And that’s how you blow a six-run lead with two outs in the ninth inning.

Seattle’s bullpen has better numbers, but they aren’t great. Their biggest issue is allowing the eighth-most home runs. That could get worse as they face Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.

The Mariners use Drew Steckenrider and Diego Castillo most out of the bullpen. Neither player has an ERA under 4.00, with Castillo sitting at an ugly 7.20. He allowed five runs in his last appearance.

Which unit can step up on Monday night?

Phillies vs. Mariners Pick

My Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-110)Bet on the MLB at Bovada

The Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners enter this matchup on an even playing field. It’s a close matchup that could go either way. Because of that, I’m pivoting to the run total.

I’m not a huge fan of the pitchers in this matchup. Ranger Suarez has had his issues, while both bullpens have struggled. It wouldn’t surprise me if they allowed over 7.5 runs on their own.

Feel free to check out our MLB betting picks for more breakdowns and top picks.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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